Bill Totten's Weblog

Monday, April 30, 2007

World needs to axe greenhouse gases by eighty percent

by Alister Doyle, Environment Correspondent

Reuters (April 19 2007)


The world will have to axe greenhouse gas emissions by eighty percent by 2050, more deeply than planned, to have an even chance of curbing global warming in line with European Union goals, researchers said on Thursday.

Even tough long-term curbs foreseen by the EU or California fall short of reductions needed to avert a two degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) temperature rise over pre-industrial times, seen by the EU as a threshold for "dangerous change", they said.

"If we are to have a fifty percent chance of meeting a two degrees Celsius target we would have to cut global emissions by eighty percent by 2050", Nathan Rive of the Center for International Climate and Environmental Research in Oslo told Reuters.

"Any delay in implementing emissions reductions will make a two degree target practically unreachable", he and colleague Steffen Kallbekken wrote of findings to be published in the journal Climatic Change.

The EU reckons that there would be dangerous disruptions to the climate such as ever more droughts, heatwaves, floods and rising seas beyond a two degrees Celsius ceiling. Temperatures already rose by about 0.7 Celsius in the 20th century.

An eighty percent global cut would mean rich nations, responsible for most heat-trapping emissions from fossil fuels burnt by power plants, factories and cars, would have to axe emissions by about 95 percent below 2000 levels by 2050.

Developing countries such as China, India, Brazil and Indonesia, where emissions are rising sharply in line with energy use to help lift millions from poverty, would have to take on less swinging reductions, they said.


California

"Even the most ambitious proposals for emissions cuts in 2050, such as the UK draft climate bill which sets a cut of sixty percent, or the California target to reduce emissions by eighty percent by 2050, fall short", they said.

A draft report by the UN climate panel due for release on May 4 in Bangkok also concludes that a maximum two degrees Celsius rise would be hard to achieve. Restraints on emissions consistent with the goal could cost up to three percent of world gross domestic product.

And Kalbekken and Rive said that global emissions would have to peak in 2025, with cuts in place by 2010, to achieve an eighty percent cut by mid-century. Any delays would sharply raise costs.

Under the UN's Kyoto Protocol, 35 industrialized nations now have goals of cutting emissions by five percent below 1990 by 2008 to 2012. The United States, which says the plan is too costly and wrongly excludes developing states, is the main outsider.

UN climate negotiations focused on widening Kyoto beyond 2012 are stalled. Developing nations say they cannot be expected to cap emissions when energy use has been a key to economic growth by rich states since the Industrial Revolution.


Copyright (c) 2007 Reuters Limited. All rights reserved.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20070419/ts_nm/globalwarming_dc_1


Bill Totten http://www.ashisuto.co.jp/english/index.html

The Global Scramble for Black Gold

Oil and the Empire

by Alan Maass

www.counterpunch.org (March 30 2007)


The oil men of the Bush administration are trying to set up one of the biggest swindles in history - the great Iraq oil robbery.

The cabinet of the new Iraqi government - under pressure from the US occupiers who put them in power - approved a law that would undo Iraq's nationalized system and give Western oil giants unparalleled access to the country's vast reserves.

The oil companies would be guaranteed super-profits - on a scale unknown anywhere else in the Middle East - for a period of twenty to 35 years from oil pumped out of two-thirds or more of Iraq's oilfields. Meanwhile, Iraqis would continue to endure poverty and the devastation of war while sitting atop what is estimated to be the third-largest supply of the world's most sought-after resource.

The great Iraq oil robbery isn't a done deal. Even if the law is finalized by May as expected, the major oil companies say they won't have anything to do with production in Iraq until "security" is established - and that would mean a success for the occupiers and their Iraqi puppets that the US hasn't been able to achieve over the past four years since the invasion.

Still, the law underlines the importance of the scramble for oil to the US empire - no matter how much George Bush and his administration deny it with claims about spreading "democracy" and making the world safe from terrorism.

The US government's thirst for oil isn't only about profits - and still less about securing supplies of a commodity that ordinary Americans depend on - but is also about power. In a world in which the economic and military might of nations depends significantly on access to oil, more control for the US means less control for its rivals.

These dual calculations - securing access for its own needs and controlling the access of others - have been central to the history of oil and the US empire, from the end of the 19th century, to the start of the 21st.

_____


During the opening months of the Bush administration in 2001, Dick Cheney chaired a task force to set a new course for US energy policy.

Cheney and the White House invited a showdown with Congress by refusing to respond to even routine requests for information about the task force - like who served on it, and what their recommendations were.

Most people assumed this meant the task force was made up of energy industry executives, and their "deliberations" were organized around plotting new ways to line their pockets. This turned out to be completely accurate - and certainly not unexpected, given the makeup of the new administration.

"It isn't so much under the sway of Big Oil as it is, well, infested top to bottom with oil operatives, starting with the president and vice president", left-wing journalist Jeffrey St. Clair wrote on the CounterPunch Web Site.

"Eight cabinet members and the National Security Advisor came directly from executive jobs in the oil industry, as did 32 other Bush-appointed officials in the Office of Management and Budget, Pentagon, State Department and the departments of Energy, Agriculture and - most crucially in terms of opening up what remains of the American wilderness to the drillers - Interior".

But Cheney and the task force had more on their minds than further deregulation or drilling in the Artic National Wildlife Refuge.

They were also laying out the strategic aims of the "war on terror" to come.

It wasn't called the "war on terror" yet. The September 11 attacks would take place half a year later, but ultimately, they were only the pretext for carrying out long-held plans for a more aggressive US imperialism.

Oil was at the heart of that agenda. Cheney's energy task force concluded that declining resources and the rise of potential rivals such as China meant the US needed to tighten its grip - most of all, in the Persian Gulf region, which sits on more proven reserves of oil than the rest of the world combined.

The task force recommended that the US press allies like Saudi Arabia and Kuwait to "open up areas of their energy sectors to foreign investment".

But another focus was Iraq - where oil production remained in a shambles after the first Gulf War, and exports were restricted by US-backed United Nations sanctions. The task force reportedly examined maps of Iraqi oilfields - and the Pentagon produced a memo on "Foreign Suitors For Iraqi Oilfield Contracts" that analyzed contractors from dozens of countries and their intentions toward exploiting Iraqi's oil if Saddam Hussein's government was overthrown.

The interest in Iraq's oil wasn't new. A Pentagon document made the case that an "oil war" was a "legitimate" military option back in 1999 - while Bill Clinton was still president.

At that time, Dick Cheney was still lurking in the private sector, as the CEO of Halliburton, but he clearly agreed with the Democratic administration about the importance of oil. "The Middle East, with two-thirds of the oil and the lowest cost, is still where the prize lies", he said in a 1999 speech.

Of course, Cheney's industry colleagues lusted after Iraqi oil as a source of profits. "Iraq possesses huge reserves of oil and gas ... [that] I'd love Chevron to have access to", Chevron CEO Kenneth Derr said in 1998.

But Cheney and like-minded "hawks" from previous Republican administrations had their minds on a bigger picture. By the end of the 1990s, the newly formed Project for a New American Century provided a soapbox for the "neoconservatives" who would populate the Bush administration - such as Paul Wolfowitz, John Bolton and future Cheney aide Lewis "Scooter" Libby.

"While the unresolved conflict with Iraq provides the immediate justification, the need for a substantial American force presence in the Gulf transcends the issue of Saddam Hussein", the PNAC hawks declared in a report issued not long before the 2000 election. War with Iraq would be part of a plan of "maintaining global US pre-eminence ... and shaping the international security order in line with US principles and interests".

The PNAC dogma became the outline of the Bush Doctrine promoted by the administration after the "war on terror" was launched - aggressive use of US power to prevent the development of any rivals to the US, now and into the future.

Pre-emptive war and an expanded US military presence worldwide would be necessary to "dissuade potential adversaries from pursuing a military buildup in hopes of surpassing, or equaling, the power of the US", according to the White House's National Security Strategy document issued in 2002.

In this context, oil is a dominant factor - because as important as it is to the economic fortunes of any country, it is even more so to their military might.

_____


No one would doubt the critical importance of oil to the global economy. It accounts for 39 percent of global energy consumption, including 95 percent of energy used in ground, sea and air transportation. Petroleum is also a basic component in a range of products, like plastics and paints, that we take for granted today.

"But just as important", as Saman Sepheri wrote in the International Socialist Review, "every tank, every airplane - from the B-52 to the stealth bomber - every Cruise missile and most warships in the US or any other nation's military arsenal rely on oil to wage their terror".

The decisive relationship of war and oil first emerged in the First World War. Britain, with its colonial control over Iranian oil, had a decisive advantage over the German-led Axis powers, allowing the Allies to "[float] to victory on a wave of oil", in the words of Britain's Foreign Secretary Lord Curzon.

By the Second World War, the scramble for oil was a strategic priority on all sides. "The Japanese attacked Pearl Harbor to protect their flank as they grabbed for the petroleum resources of the East Indies", author Daniel Yergin wrote in his history of oil titled The Prize. "Among Hitler's most important strategic objectives in the invasion of the Soviet Union was the capture of the oil fields in the Caucasus. But America's predominance in oil proved decisive, and by the end of the war, German and Japanese fuel tanks were empty."

The US emerged from the war as the dominant world superpower, and a central part of its postwar strategy depended on maintaining control over oil resources, particularly the vast reserves discovered in the Middle East - "a stupendous source of strategic power, and one of the greatest prizes in world history", the State Department said in a document.

US companies had been decisive in establishing Saudi Arabia - the first "fundamentalist" Islamic state built around the Saud clan. Texaco and Standard Oil of California formed the Arab American Oil Company (ARAMCO) to share its concessions for exploration and marketing of Saudi oil. ARAMCO and the US government ended up creating much of the Saudi state machine from scratch to serve their needs.

During the early 1950s, in Iran, the other crucial pillar of Middle East oil production, Prime Minister Mohammad Mossadeq nationalized the British-controlled Anglo-Iranian Oil Company. The CIA organized a coup to overthrow Mossadeq, restoring the brutal regime of the Shah to serve as a regional strongman guaranteeing Western oil interests.

The other important surrogate for the US was Israel. Without oil resources itself, Israel was a colonial settler state funded with tens of billions of dollars in US aid to serve as a military watchdog against any threat to Western interests by Arab nationalist regimes.

US power over the region suffered a blow with the 1978-79 revolution that toppled the Shah. President Jimmy Carter ordered the creation of a Rapid Deployment Force to stop "any attempt by any outside force to gain control of the Persian Gulf region [which] will be regarded as an assault on the vital interests of the United States".

Meanwhile, the US encouraged neighboring Iraq, under the dictatorship of Saddam Hussein and his Baath Party, to invade Iran - and quietly backed the decade-long war that followed, at a cost of more than one million lives.

When Hussein threatened to slip the leash, invading Kuwait in 1990, George Bush Sr organized a coalition of "the bullied and the bribed" for a war that killed hundreds of thousands.

The same priority - on protecting and extending US control over the flow of Middle East oil - has continued through the rush to exploit newly available oil reserves in the Caspian Sea region, the scheming for a pipeline through Afghanistan and beyond.

_____


The question of who controls the oil is made even more intense by the threat that it is drying up. Depending on how pessimistic or optimistic the estimate, world production of oil will peak in either the next few years or next few decades - at which point, the cost of extracting the remaining oil is expected to rise rapidly.

This end-of-oil scenario is emerging as worldwide demand for oil is growing at a faster pace than ever.

The US continues to claim the lion's share, accounting for 25 percent of oil consumption with just five percent of the world's population. But the big increases in demand are coming from the developing world's economic powerhouses China and India - precisely the nations that sections of the US establishment fear could develop into rivals over the coming century.

The stage is thus set for oil to play the same central role in the imperialist competition - economic, political and military - between nations in the 21st century as it did in the 20th.

In this light, the Bush administration's motivations in pushing for the new Iraq oil law are clearer.

For one thing, Iraqi oil production has been hampered by two decades of war and sanctions - its reserves will be an important unexploited source as oil becomes more scarce.

US companies would love to take advantage of the super-profits guaranteed by the production-sharing agreements (PSAs) that the Iraqi government would sign under the law.

PSAs are usually used in situations where the oil is difficult to extract, so the company's investment in production is substantial. But the opposite is the case in Iraq - the cost of extraction is about $1 per barrel, and the selling price on the world market is around $60 a barrel. And under the PSA, foreign oil companies would be guaranteed seventy percent of the profits - seven times the typical share under other contracts in the Middle East.

But that's assuming they get away with it. The Iraqi government is expected to approve the oil law, but getting Western oil companies to come in under circumstances of a civil war and widespread opposition to the US military presence is another matter.

The other aim of the oil law, as left-wing Iraq expert Michael Schwartz put it in a recent interview with Socialist Worker, is to give US companies "control over the spigots" - so that the US will "get to decide how much is going to get pumped at any particular moment, and who it will be sold to". But the crisis of the occupation has frustrated this aim as well.

Meanwhile, rather than being intimidated by US power, Iran has benefited from Washington's crisis in Iraq, and is more willing than ever to strike out on its own. One consequence has been Iran's deeper ties with China - the very country the US hoped to force into line with its tightened grip on Persian Gulf oil.

Washington's rulers aren't about to give up, however. For the last century, the world's governments have been ready to go to war over oil - and they will again, until a new society that places priorities on democracy, freedom and justice is established.

http://www.counterpunch.org/


Bill Totten http://www.ashisuto.co.jp/english/index.html

Sunday, April 29, 2007

Buying only what you need ...

... is like a gift to yourself

by Craig Wilson

USA Today (December 02 2003)


I did what many Americans did over the weekend. I went shopping with my mother. Actually I went looking. My mother went shopping.

Some of you may remember that back in January I wrote about how I was going to attempt to go through the year without buying anything. Food. Yes. Plants for the garden. Yes. Gifts for other people. Sure.

But another shirt or sweater for myself? No.

I made the New Year's proclamation after realizing I already had too much stuff, so much I was actually embarrassed. So I joined what's called the simplicity movement, cleaning out the closet in an attempt to clean out the mind.

I'm not alone in this. The day after Thanksgiving - one of the biggest shopping days of the year - has been proclaimed "Buy Nothing Day" by activists who want to put some perspective on America's hunger to purchase. I joined the cause months before.

Since January, hundreds of you have written, wondering how I was doing. Had I succumbed to a cashmere scarf in March, a new bathing suit in June, a slicker come September?

Did I ever fall off the wagon? Of course.

Did I throw in the towel and rush to the Ralph Lauren end-of-summer sale? No.

Did my checking account soar and my credit card bill plummet? Yes and yes.

I even kept a list of my indiscretions.

I confessed early on that I bought two pairs of jeans. I couldn't get into my old ones, which also had ripped. I've since lost weight, and the new jeans are now useless. I'm wearing a pair that had been stored away for a few years. The irony is not lost on me.

I also bought a pair of boat moccasins for walking the dog. Years of early-morning treks to the park had taken their toll on the old pair. I looked upon the purchase as more a necessity than a luxury.

But the purchase I'm most embarrassed about is a tennis sweater I got while on vacation in England. It's white with a purple band around the V-neck collar. It came from A E Clothier on King's Parade in Cambridge, and yes, it's quite natty.

But it belongs on a grass court there more than it belongs in my drawer here. I'm not sure what came over me. Maybe it was vacationitis - no, it's not a word but should be - because it happened again. A shirt from Hackett's in London. Maybe I thought holiday purchases were exempt. I've already given it away.

This fall, my boss asked me how I was doing, how it felt not to buy much of anything for a year. I told her it feels like an alcoholic must feel when he stops drinking. Liberating. Cleansing.

And like a recovering alcoholic steering clear of bars, I find myself walking by stores. They seem like museums to me now. I look through the window and see the lovely displays, but I never touch.

My partner, Jack, asks whether I'm going to continue what he calls "my little exercise in restraint". I just might.

After all, buying just what you need, not what you think you need, isn't a bad way of life. In fact, it's quite a good way of life.

Especially when you can still accept gifts.

Copyright USA TODAY, a division of Gannett Company Inc.

http://www.usatoday.com/life/columnist/finalword/2003-12-02-final-word_x.htm


Bill Totten http://www.ashisuto.co.jp/english/index.html

Beyond Munich

The UN Security Council Helps Disarm a Prospective Further Victim of US Aggression {*}

by Edward Herman and David Peterson

ZNet Commentary (April 02 2007)


Imagine that when Hitler was threatening to invade Poland, after having swallowed Czechoslovakia - with the help of the Western European powers' appeasement of Hitler at Munich in September 1938 - the League of Nations imposed an arms embargo on Poland, making it more difficult for the imminent victim to defend itself, and at the same time suggested that Poland was the villainous party. That didn't happen back in 1939, but in a regression from that notorious era of appeasement something quite analogous is happening now.

Here is the United States, still fighting a brutal war of conquest in Iraq, which it is now doing with UN Security Council approval, with open plans and threats to attack Iran and engage in "regime change", gathering aircraft carriers off the coast of Iran, already engaging in subversive and probing attacks on the prospective target, and the UN Security Council, instead of warning and threatening the aggressor warns, threatens and imposes sanctions on the prospective victim!

The way it works is that the United States stirs up a big fuss, proclaiming a serious threat to its own national security, and expressing its deep concern over another state's flouting of Security Council resolutions or dragging its feet on some point of order such as weapons inspections - we know how devoted the United States and its Israeli client are to the rule of law!

In the Iraq case, this noise was echoed and amplified in the media, often splashed across headlines and drummed up in editorial commentary. In turn, elite opinion in the United States and Britain coalesced around the beliefs (a) that a WMD-related crisis really existed in Baghdad and (b) that it required the Security Council's special attention. Straight through March 19 - 20 2003, Iraq, the prospective target of a full-scale attack, decried the absurdity of this US-UK noise, and filed regular communiques with the Security Council and Secretary General documenting the US-UK aerial strikes on its territory, {1} including the "spikes of activity" period from September 2002 onward. {2} The vast majority of the world's states and peoples also rejected the war propaganda - including the largely voiceless US public, where in the weeks before the war, two-thirds of non-elite opinion stood firmly behind multilateral approaches to defuse the crisis, foremost of which was permitting the UN weapons inspections to take their course. {3} But then, as now, pretty much the entire world recognized the US-UK hijacking of the Security Council, and its strategic misdirection away from a defense of the actual target of the threats (Iraq) onto the execution of the policy of the states making those threats while playing the role of Iraq's potential victims (the US and UK).

So the aggression planning proceeded then and does now with the cooperation of the UN and international community. In the Iraq case, the Security Council allowed itself to be bamboozled into restarting the weapons-inspection process, accepting this as the urgent matter, rather than the war-mobilization and threat of aggression by the United States and its British ally. Although the Security Council did not vote approval of the US-British attack, it helped set it up by inflating the Iraq threat and failing to confront the real threat posed by the United States and Britain. Then, within two months after "shock and awe", the Security Council voted to give the aggressor the right to stay in Iraq and manage its affairs, thereby approving a gross violation of the UN Charter after the fact.

Now, four years later, the Security Council has outdone itself. Not only has it failed to condemn the US and Israeli threat to attack Iran - the threat itself a violation of the UN Charter, {4} and one made ever-more real by the US invasions of neighboring Afghanistan and Iraq during this decade alone, now followed by a huge US naval buildup near Iran's coast to levels not seen since the US launched its war on Iraq four years ago in what the New York Times just called a "calculated show of force". {5} But even worse, the Council has aided and abetted these potential aggressors by adopting three resolutions in the past eight months under Chapter VII of the UN Charter, each of which affirms that Iran's nuclear program is a threat to international peace and security, and reserves for the Council the right to take "further appropriate measures" should Iran fail to comply - that is, should Iran not cave-in to US demands on exactly the terms demanded. {6}

Since July 31, the Council has demanded that Iran "suspend all enrichment-related and reprocessing activities, including research and development" {7} - despite the fact that Iran's right to engage in these activities is guaranteed under the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. {8} Since December 23, it has identified the existence of Iran's nuclear program with so-called "proliferation sensitive nuclear activities" {9} - despite the fact that the International Atomic Energy Agency has never shown Iran's program to be engaged in any kind of activities other than peaceful ones. Indeed, in the December 23 resolution, the Council used the phrase "proliferation sensitive nuclear activities" no fewer than eight different times to describe Iran's nuclear program, the clear - and perfectly false - allegation being that for Iran to do research on and develop its indigenous nuclear fuel capabilities places Iran in violation of its NPT commitments.

But perhaps most egregious of all, the March 24 resolution prohibits Iran from selling "any arms or related material" to other states or individuals (paragraph 5), and calls upon all states "to exercise vigilance and restraint" in the sale or transfer of a whole list of weapons systems to Iran, "in order to prevent a destabilizing accumulation of arms" (paragraph 6). {10} As the editorial voice of The Hindu immediately recognized, the first term is critical "not so much because the Islamic Republic is a major vendor of weapons even to Hamas or Hizbollah but because it gives the US an excuse to intimidate or interdict all Iranian merchant shipping under the guise of 'enforcement'". {11} Likewise with the second term, which, if history is any guide, Washington will interpret as a strict prohibition on weapons sales to Iran, thus depriving the potential victim, faced with attack by one or more nuclear powers, of the right to obtain even non-nuclear means of self defense. This of course has been a standard US tactic over many years, even against puny victims - Guatemala in 1954 and Nicaragua in the 1980s, among other cases. But now the United States has succeeded in getting the Security Council to help it impede the self-defense of yet another target of aggression. In this truly Kafkaesque case, the state targeted for attack (Iran) has been declared a threat to the peace by the Security Council, at the behest of a serial aggressor openly mobilizing its forces to attack the "threat". {12}

It should be recognized that the treatment of Iran's nuclear program, and the Security Council's cooperation in this treatment, is the ultimate application of a global double standard, enforced by an aggressive superpower now able to get away with both hypocrisy and murder. Only the United States and its allies may possess nuclear weapons. They alone may threaten to use nukes. They alone may improve their nukes and delivery systems. Only client states such as Israel may remain outside the NPT indefinitely and without penalty. The United States may ignore its NPT obligation to work toward nuclear disarmament. It may even renege on its promise never to use nukes against nuke-free states that joined the NPT. But no matter. By sheer fiat-power, no other state may acquire nukes without US consent. Nor as the case of Iran shows may a state engage in its "inalienable right" to use nuclear energy for peaceful purposes unless and until the United States approves.

We are in the midst of a crisis within the post-war international system, as a serial aggressor is now able to mobilize the Security Council, tasked with the maintenance of international peace and security, to declare the state that it threatens with war a menace to the peace and to help the aggressor disarm its target. This carries us beyond Munich.


Endnotes

* The authors would like it understood that a shorter, standard op-ed length version of this commentary was drafted and submitted very widely across the major US print media - and found to be 100 percent unpublishable.

1. For an extensive list of documents filed at the United Nations by the Iraqi Government over the period August 29 2001, through March 26 2003, see David Peterson, "No Memo Required", ZNet, July 1 2005.

2. See David Peterson, "Spikes of Activity", ZNet, July 05 2005, ; and David Peterson, "British Records of Prewar Bombing of Iraq", ZNet, July 06 2005.

3. See Steven Kull et al, Americans on Iraq and the UN Inspections, Program on International Policy Attitudes, January 21-26 2003.

4. See, for example, Chapter I, Article 2: "All Members shall refrain in their international relations from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any state, or in any other manner inconsistent with the Purposes of the United Nations" (paragraph 4).

5. "USS John C Stennis Now Operating in Persian Gulf", Navy Newsstand, March 27 2007; "Russian intelligence sees US military buildup on Iran border", RIA Novosti, March 27 2007; and Michael R Gordon, "US Opens Naval Exercise in Persian Gulf", New York Times, March 28 2007.

6. See Chapter VII, & lt; http://www.un.org/aboutun/charter/chapter7.htm . We believe it essential to understand that for the Security Council to adopt a resolution under Chapter VII of the UN Charter means above all that either a threat to the peace, a breach of the peace, or an act of outright aggression has occurred. Otherwise, there is no point to the Council's resort to its Chapter VII functions and powers. Regardless of what the Council's other members may believe about the import of the Iran resolutions, their assent to these resolutions grants an enormously powerful and dangerous tool of coercion to the United States.

7. Resolution 1696, July 31 2006, paragraph 2.

8. See the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, the Preamble, and Articles I, II, and IV.

9. Resolution 1737, December 23 2006, paragraph 2.

10. Resolution 1747, March 24 2007, paragraph 5, paragraph 6.

11. "Stepping towards the precipice", Editorial, The Hindu, March 27 2007.

12. See Edward S Herman and David Peterson, "Hegemony and Appeasement: Setting Up the Next US-Israeli Target (Iran) for Another 'Supreme International Crime'", ZNet, January 27 2007.



_____

Edward S Herman is an economist and media analyst, co-author with Noam Chomsky of Manufacturing Consent.

David Peterson is a Chicago-based researcher and journalist.


http://www.zmag.org/sustainers/content/2007-04/02herman-peterson.cfm

Bill Totten http://www.ashisuto.co.jp/english/index.html

Saturday, April 28, 2007

Breaking the Consumer Habit

Living the Buy Nothing Life

by Jenny Uechi

adbusters.org (April 20 2007)


San Francisco, 1951.

A living room fills with warm laughter and the aroma of fresh-baked goodies. Suburban housewives walk around the room exchanging smiles, telling stories. It's like any other casual gathering, except for one twist: this is a Tupperware party, everyone is here to shop.

Painting over gray decades of war and depression with bright pastels, products like Tupperware ushered in a new era of prosperity, renewal and superabundance. Consumer goods like the television set and the Cadillac became more than just necessities for life: for millions of consumers, they were the essence of life itself.

Fast forward to 2005. A group of friends in the San Francisco Bay Area are meeting over a potluck dinner. Disillusioned by the endless consumer rat race, they are here to discuss how to not shop, to put an end to needless consumption. Taking the concept of Buy Nothing Day to the extreme, they have decided to attempt a full year without buying new products. Dubbing themselves "The Compact" after the Mayflower pledge at Plymouth Rock, the group vowed to limit their shopping to food, medicine and basic hygiene products, buying used wherever they could. Since the local news began covering them, their story has exploded, appearing everywhere from the Today Show to The Times of London. Today, with 8,000 new members and 55 subgroups worldwide - from regions as varied as Singapore and Iceland - the Compact are finding themselves at the forefront of the turning tide against consumer culture.

What the Compacters are doing is neither radical nor revolutionary; millions of people around the world live this way, and have lived this way for generations. Yet the Compact threatens and challenges everything that people have come to believe about "the good life" in the industrialized world. Reactions to the movement have been passionate, ranging from applause to outrage. Compact members have been accused of being "self-congratulatory braggarts" who are "destroying America's economy". One Compacter in Chilliwack, Canada, recalls friends reacting as if she had joined a Satanic cult. Love it or hate it, the Compact has made people question and the real motives behind their daily purchases.

"I used to shop to entertain myself", confesses Lori Wyndham Jolly, an American expat and Compacter living in Berkshire, UK. "I'd go into a record store and buy a whole load of discount CDs, or into a chemist and get a lot of cheap cosmetics ... I didn't do this because I needed any of that stuff, but just to fill the emptiness. I read a throwaway line in paperback once, but it's stuck with me: People shop because they're lonely."

"We're constantly on the drive to consume more stuff", says Rachel Kesel, a Bay Area Compacter who keeps a closely followed blog about her experiences. "It becomes a habit and not necessity".

The reasons why people join the Compact are varied. Some join to cut back on spending, others to reduce waste, still others to escape materialism and focus on spiritual values. One thing they all recognize is that shopping is not the solution to their problems - in fact, it may very well be the cause to many of them.

"Money and debts seem to be ruling our life", observes Ru'na Bjo"rg Gartharsdo'ttir, a Compacter in Iceland. She explains to Adbusters that she joined the Compact to escape what she calls the "vicious cycle" of consumerism - the chronic overwork to be able to spend more; the social disintegration resulting from overwork; the environmental damage caused by consumer waste; conflict over resources to supply consumer demand. In other words, a myriad of problems loosely bound by the innocent desire for an iPod or a luxury car collection.

It is no coincidence that the emergence of the Compact coincides with the rising popularity of the down-shifting and environmental movements. People throughout the developed world have realized that, unlike our psychological desires - which are infinite - our physiology and environmental resources have limits. Our body can't handle eighty-hour workweeks on a 6,000-calorie-per-day diet, no more than our earth can handle cities like New York producing 12,000 tons of solid waste every single day, or the hundreds of millions of discarded cell phones that release cancer-causing toxins into the air. Something, someday, will have to give.

For now, most Compacters defensively state that their choice is a strictly "personal" one and that they have no political agenda. Yet they continue to stir up discontent by turning their back on a sacred ideal, the belief shared by billions around the world that "more" is better than "just enough". Marketers are hoping this is a fringe movement. The signs point elsewhere. According to recent surveys by sociologist Juliet Schor, 81 percent of Americans believe their country is too focused on shopping, while nearly ninety percent believe it is too materialistic. Newspapers such as USA Today received record reader responses when columnist Craig Wilson swore off shopping for a full year. Radical anti-consumers such as the Freegans (people who survive on discarded food and products) are proving that people can survive off the waste of affluent consumers.

Gartharsdo'ttir, for her part, speaks with some pride when people tell her that her refusal to shop will shake her country's economy. "It shows clearly the strong influence the marketing forces currently have on the nation", she says. "We should rule our lives and decide what comes first".

_____

Compact's blog is at http://sfcompact.blogspot.com/
_____


http://adbusters.org/the_magazine/71.php?id=258#


Bill Totten http://www.ashisuto.co.jp/english/index.html

How Will Our Grandchildren See Us?

by Scott Bontz

The LandInstitute.org (March 27 2007)


Thirty years ago, Alex Haley's "Roots" on television inspired millions to sleuth their blood ties to history. On this anniversary, let's imagine what our own descendants will make of us when they look back.

What they will see is that Earth's people more than tripled between 1950 and 2050. They'll see that halfway through this explosion, American material consumption had grown so voracious that four Earths would be needed for everyone on the planet to live the same way. And they'll see that billions tried.

They'll see that this combination exhausted and poisoned water supplies, exterminated hundreds of thousands of species, and plowed under forests and grasslands, eroding essentially irreplaceable soils.

They'll see that what fueled the "free market" was humanity's biggest free lunch: We exploited energy accumulated over millions of years - coal, oil and natural gas. And we did it even though we knew we'd run out.

They'll see that burning these fossil fuels raised temperatures and sea levels to drive tens of millions from coastal cities and drown rich delta soils, turned rich midcontinent farmland into desert, and made storms in wetter regions destructively stronger and erratic.

They'll see that even during this delayed reaction to the Big Burn, fossil fuels petered out, and with them the irrigation and fertilizer that made it possible to feed so many extra billions.

And they'll see that before the resulting hardships, people in the richest countries got much fatter, yet no happier.

They - the Children of the Great Depletion - will see that we squandered Earth, their birthright, for the sake of the "good life".

This portrait in the making, some of it based on climate modeling but most of it already fleshing out in fact, is grim. But we can leave a better picture if we work now to save a planet that's still in many ways a garden.

This will require us to radically redefine progress and what we mean by "standard of living". We can't measure these only with material yardsticks, aiming only for "efficiency" with energy and materials, which just frees capital for more consumption. The goal will be what writer Wendell Berry calls "poorer in luxuries and gadgets, but ... richer in meaning and more abundant in real pleasure". We must make an honest accounting of what our planet can support long term. We must remember that human endeavor is merely a subsidiary of Earth Ltd.

Since the free market has failed us here, we need new rules of taxation, regulation and treaty. So:

* Make the American way of life negotiable. Our fuel burning pumps into the atmosphere more global-warming carbon dioxide than any other nation, even though Number Two China has more than four times as many people. We have to lead the way out.

* Do this by taxing fossil fuels to slash release of greenhouse gases. Price these fuels at their true, long-term cost, including illness from pollution and food production lost to climate change. Invest the revenue in sustainable alternatives. Do it soon: Leading NASA climate scientist James Hansen reckons we have a decade at most to start reducing greenhouse gases before drastic climate change becomes inevitable.

* End tax exemptions for any more children than two - those predating the rule excepted. Through government subsidy make contraceptives and sterilization surgery free. Even if nothing else about sex is taught in school, explain exponential growth.

* Negotiate with other affluent countries to cut consumption. Again, it's our responsibility to lead.

* For poor nations, greatly expand aid, but make it conditional: They must control population and pollution, and protect land, air and water. This investment could be far less than current military spending, yet better for long-term national security.

* And for policy and individual conduct in general, recognize that what we call economic growth, running now on so much principal from the natural world, cannot last. Instead of spending like there's no tomorrow, conserve - make this the United States of Conservation - and pass along a good life to our descendants.

What could make them prouder?

-----

Scott Bontz wrote this for the Prairie Writers Circle, a project of the Land Institute, Salina, Kansas. He edits institute publications.

http://www.landinstitute.org/vnews/display.v/ART/2007/04/03/46099b95e7777


Bill Totten http://www.ashisuto.co.jp/english/index.html

Friday, April 27, 2007

Lines of beauty

by John Gray

New Statesman (April 23 2007)

At the Same Time
by Susan Sontag

(Hamish Hamilton, 256 pages, GBP 18.99)

ISBN 0241143713



The first of the essays and speeches that are collected in At the Same Time {1} is a meditation on beauty. Written during the last years of Susan Sontag's life, when she was ill with cancer, these sixteen pieces brim over with vitality. Every one of them opening up fresh lines of thought, they are in no sense last words. Unlike many politically engaged writers, Sontag never hankered after the security of a finished system of thought. If she acquired a reputation for contrarian thinking it was because she responded directly to historical events, which rarely conform to ideological stereotypes.

Enraging bien-pensants when she noted that Reader's Digest gave a truer picture of communism than could be found in the journals of the left, she provoked fury on the right by observing (in a piece written just after the 9/11 attacks, included in this volume) that politics had been replaced by a kind of psychotherapy whose goal was to spare the American public from being burdened by too much reality - not least the reality of intractable conflict in the Middle East. In each case, she was speaking a truth that had been silenced by prevailing opinion.

At the Same Time is a record of Sontag's thinking in progress. Even so, the book's opening reflections on beauty undoubtedly express her lifelong beliefs - and may help unravel a persistent paradox in her life as a writer. Against the puritan tradition that suspects aesthetic values because they threaten the primacy of morality, she declares that "beauty, even amoral beauty, is never naked", for "the aesthetic is itself a quasi-moral moral project". Engaging with beauty enables a type of wisdom, she believed, that "cannot be duplicated by any other kind of a seriousness". This is a conception of beauty that recalls Plato, and Sontag is clear that modern democratic relativism - the belief that aesthetic judgement is a matter of subjective preference rather than a perception of some kind of reality - undermines the very possibility of wisdom.

Here we have one of Sontag's many departures from current liberal orthodoxy - her "elitist" insistence on the enduring importance of values that are neglected in popular culture. It is true that she had no time for the postmodern view that the cultural consumer is always right. Radical subjectivism of this sort produces a cult of fashion masquerading as irony, "the promiscuous, empty affirmations of the interesting" that places human subjectivity at the centre of the world. In contrast, she believed, beauty "reminds us of nature as such - of what lies beyond the human and the made."

Though the fact is commonly resisted, an abiding concern with aesthetic experience does not coexist easily with strong political engagement. An urgent interest in reshaping the world is at odds with the attempt to discern the beauty it contains whatever its flaws. More than any of her critics, Sontag was aware of this tension. At times she seemed wary of the moral activism that fuelled her protests against injustice, and may have regretted not giving more of her energy to writing novels. It is striking how many of the writers she admired lacked, or even scorned, political commitment. An earnest desire to improve the human lot does not figure centrally in the work of Fernando Pessoa, E M Cioran or W G Sebald - writers Sontag fervently praised and publicised. When she promoted the work of an indefatigable activist and agitator - as she does, in a luminous essay collected here, when she praises Victor Serge's neglected novel The Case of Comrade Tulayev {2} - it was not primarily his exposure of Soviet oppression that she celebrated. It was the subtlety with which Serge pursued fictional truth in all its labyrinthine complication. Whereas an archetypal didactic "political novel" such as Arthur Koestler's Darkness at Noon {3} sees the Stalinist era through the prism of one person's experience of oppression, Serge interweaves politics and personalities in a panoramic view of history. For Sontag, fiction was the most effective way of rendering the human actuality, and it was Serge's realistic account of the contingencies that shape human fortunes which made him the better writer.

I knew Sontag only slightly, and all too briefly, towards the end of her life. At the time she died, she was America's best-known public intellectual. To my mind, she was also the most exemplary. Intellectually and imaginatively gifted to an extraordinary degree, she used her fearless intelligence to illuminate some of the deepest contradictions of contemporary life. Her writings on interpretation, photography and illness are part of the modern cultural canon. But Sontag was much more than a critic of culture, however accomplished. Who else would note, as she does in her essay "Regarding the Torture of Others", collected here, the seamless connection between the images of torture coming out of Abu Ghraib and the cliche's of the American porn industry? Or note that the photographs the soldiers posed, thumbs up, over their victims and sent to their friends illustrate a media-driven society in which everything that was once private is now shamelessly revealed? This is the moral culture that has made possible the rehabilitation of torture - a process that has taken place in a matter of a few years, but which is a defining feature of our age.

As Sontag wrote, "What formerly was segregated as pornography, as the exercise of extreme sado-masochistic longings - as in Pier Pasolini's last, near-unwatchable film Salo (1975), depicting orgies of torture in the fascist redoubt in northern Italy at the end of the Mussolini era - is now being normalised by the apostles of the new, bellicose, imperial America".

That this process should have been led by the world's pre-eminent liberal regime is also symptomatic of the times in which we live. Images of naked men stacked in heaps seem to have been sufficiently shocking to be largely withdrawn from the media. Yet practices of sensory deprivation and denial of sleep, which when practised on dissidents in the former Soviet Union were condemned as a sign of totalitarianism, are now defended by the American vice-president and his neoconservative acolytes as part of a crusade for universal freedom. One of the ethical restraints that shape civilised life has been eroded, while those responsible for the slide into barbarism rant on about human rights and the perils of moral relativism.

Contemporary politics is a surreal spectacle that few writers in any country have succeeded in capturing. If Sontag did, it was because, for her, cultural criticism and literature were not separate activities. The paradox in which she seemed at times entangled was only partly real. While moral activism does not always go with devotion to beauty or concern with truth, in Sontag's case these values served a single end. In At the Same Time we hear the voice of a unique writer, who loved the world and spent her life in an attempt to see it whole.


Notes:

{1} http://www.powells.com/biblio/1-9780374100728-0

{2} http://www.powells.com/s?kw=The+Case+of+Comrade+Tulayev&x=45&y=13

{3} http://www.powells.com/s?kw=Darkness+at+Noon&x=55&y=11


____

John Gray's next book, Black Mass: apocalyptic religion and the death of utopia, will be published by Penguin in July.

http://www.newstatesman.com/200704230046


Bill Totten http://www.ashisuto.co.jp/english/index.html

Awful Truth About Hillary, Barack, John ...

... and Whitewash

by Norman Solomon

ZNet Commentary (April 13 2007)


The Pentagon's most likely next target is Iran.

Hillary Clinton says "no option can be taken off the table".

Barack Obama says that the Iranian government is "a threat to all of us" and "we should take no option, including military action, off the table".

John Edwards says, "Under no circumstances can Iran be allowed to have nuclear weapons". And: "We need to keep all options on the table".

A year ago, writing in The New Yorker, journalist Seymour Hersh reported: "One of the military's initial option plans, as presented to the White House by the Pentagon this winter, calls for the use of a bunker-buster tactical nuclear weapon, such as the B61-11, against underground nuclear sites".

For a presidential candidate to proclaim that all "options" should be on the table while dealing with Iran is a horrific statement. It signals willingness to threaten - and possibly follow through with - first use of nuclear weapons. This raises no eyebrows among Washington's policymakers and media elites because it is in keeping with longstanding US foreign-policy doctrine.

This year, with their virtually identical statements about "options" and "the table", the leading Democratic presidential candidates - Clinton, Obama and Edwards - have refused to rule out any kind of attack on Iran.

If you're not shocked or outraged yet, consider this:

On February 22, the national leaders of MoveOn sent an e-mail letter to more than three million people with the subject line "War with Iran?" After citing a need to give UN sanctions "a chance to work before provoking a regional conflict", the letter said flatly: "Senator Hillary Clinton has provided some much needed leadership on this".

The MoveOn letter quoted a passage from a speech that Clinton had given on the Senate floor eight days earlier: "It would be a mistake of historical proportion if the administration thought that the 2002 resolution authorizing force against Iraq was a blank check for the use of force against Iran without further congressional authorization. Nor should the president think that the 2001 resolution authorizing force after the terrorist attacks of 9/11, in any way, authorizes force against Iran. If the administration believes that any, any use of force against Iran is necessary, the president must come to Congress to seek that authority."

But, while quoting Hillary Clinton's speech as an example of "some much needed leadership", MoveOn made no mention of the fact that the same speech stated: "As I have long said and will continue to say, US policy must be clear and unequivocal: We cannot, we should not, we must not permit Iran to build or acquire nuclear weapons. And in dealing with this threat, as I've also said for a long time, no option can be taken off the table."

Earlier this year, David Rieff noted in The New York Times Magazine on March 25, "Vice President Cheney insisted that the administration had not 'taken any options off the table' as Iran continued to defy United Nations calls for it to abandon its nuclear ambitions. The response from Democrats was not long in coming. Senator Clinton helped lead the charge, reminding the president that he did not have the authority to go to war with Iran on the basis of the Senate's authorization of the use of force in Iraq in 2002.

"But what Senator Clinton did not say was at least as interesting as what she did say. And what she did not say was that she opposed the use of force in Iran. To the contrary, Senator Clinton used virtually the same formulation as Vice President Cheney. When dealing with Iran, she insisted, 'no option can be taken off the table'."

To praise Hillary Clinton for providing "much needed leadership" on Iran - and to mislead millions of e-mail recipients counted as MoveOn members in the process - is a notable choice to make. It speaks volumes. It winks at Clinton's stance that "no option can be taken off the table". It serves an enabling function. It is very dangerous.

The stakes are much too high to make excuses or look the other way.

_____


Norman Solomon's book War Made Easy: How Presidents and Pundits Keep Spinning Us to Death is out in paperback. For information, go to: www.normansolomon.com


http://www.zmag.org/sustainers/content/2007-04/13solomon.cfm


Bill Totten http://www.ashisuto.co.jp/english/index.html

Thursday, April 26, 2007

Danger from the strangers behind the wheel

by Mark Lynas

New Statesman (April 23 2007)


Motorists must be forced to acknowledge that possession of a dangerous weapon requires extreme caution and diligence

There is a menace on our streets, one that threatens the lives of our children on a daily basis. It comes from a group of people who are responsible for hundreds of innocent deaths each year due to their addiction to a uniquely dangerous activity. But rather than being discouraged by government and the law, this group sees its every whim indulged - indeed, GBP 13 billion of public money is currently being wasted on its behalf. You've probably guessed who the individuals are who comprise this group - motorists.

According to government statistics, 671 pedestrians and 148 cyclists were killed by drivers in 2005. Motorists remain the biggest risk to our young people: in that same year, over 2,100 child pedestrians were seriously injured or killed, including 250 under the age of five. By comparison, an average of seven children are attacked and murdered each year by strangers. Despite the tabloid hype, your child is ten times more likely to be killed by a motorist while playing outside than by a paedophile. "Stranger danger" comes not from shifty looking men in overcoats, but from other mums and dads behind the wheel. In addition to the tally of crushed bodies and broken limbs is the hidden price paid by children through the loss of their freedom - with the streets too dangerous for children to play on, they are imprisoned in their homes by anxious parents, forced to be their chauffeurs, which can lead to more dangers for their young passengers.

Motorists are the only group of people in modern society still allowed to kill with impunity. On the rarest of occasions do motorists who cause death face jail, and then only for short periods. Take the Oxford nurse Angela Dublin, released a fortnight ago after spending just a year in prison for killing three thirteen-year-old children, who were travelling with her, and another motorist (aged 21), while speeding on the Oxford bypass in May 2005. As Dwain Haynes, father of one of the three boys killed by Dublin - who had seven kids in her car as she drove home from her son's birthday party - told the Oxford Times: "Serving a year goes to show what a joke it is and what a death on the road means. I only hope there is a change in the law one day." The conditions of Dublin's release prevent her entering areas of Oxford where families of the dead children live - so the law recognises the pain that would be caused to the parents bumping into the woman who killed their sons. Her driving ban expires in 2012 - she could be behind the wheel in just five years.

Another example of the negligible legal penalties for drivers who kill concerns the Rhyl Cycling Club, four of whose members were mown down by Robert Harris on the A457 in January 2006. Harris skidded on black ice while travelling at fifty miles per hour, causing what can only be described as carnage: three men, including the club's chairman and a fourteen-year-old boy, were declared dead at the scene. Harris was fined GBP 180 for having bald tyres, and given six penalty points on his licence. That's one and a half penalty points per person killed - not a sign of a legal system that takes innocent deaths on the road terribly seriously. Indeed, the surviving members of Rhyl Cycling Club have now joined RoadPeace, the group campaigning for justice for road traffic victims.

Despite pumping GBP thirteen billion into expanding the road network for the benefit of motorists, the government says it wants to encourage cycling. It has clearly failed: while there are seven million more cars on the road than a decade ago, the use of cycles has barely increased. Part of the reason must surely be the dangers to which cyclists and pedestrians are exposed - dangers intensified by a legal system that refuses either to punish motorists who kill or to recognise the rights of other road users. Driving also seems to generate a bully-as-victim psychology, where those who deal out death see themselves as an embattled minority - read the diatribes put out by the Association of British Drivers to get an idea of this mentality.

I have two proposals.

First, every motorist who kills should receive a lifetime driving ban, with no exceptions under any circumstances. The right to life must take precedence over the right to drive. That Robert Harris was free to walk out of the magistrates' court and get straight back into his car after killing four people is an insult to the memory of his victims. Lifetime driving bans would force motorists to be more careful, as well as take the most dangerous drivers off the road.

Second, British law - which currently favours motorists - should be altered in line with the Continental system, where a driver who hits a cyclist is presumed guilty unless proven innocent. We must lift the culture of impunity, and force motorists to acknowledge that possession of a dangerous weapon requires extreme caution and diligence. Once the terror of the car recedes, people might again begin to venture on to our streets on foot and by bike. The reality of car culture promoted by the likes of Top Gear {1} is not high-performance thrills in glamorous cars, but a wilting bunch of flowers by a busy roadside.


Note {1} http://www.powells.com/biblio/1-9780563493624-0


http://www.newstatesman.com/200704230020


Bill Totten http://www.ashisuto.co.jp/english/index.html

Climate change: Why we don't believe it

by Lois Rogers

New Statesman (April 23 2007)


What does Britain really think about global warming? We reveal an unreported gulf between the pronouncements of campaigners and politicians and British public opinion

Global warming is a threat that is going to wipe out civilisation as we know it. The liberal elite and political classes are signed up to the message that, unless we take urgent action within ten years, we are all literally doomed to burn up.

But who else believes them?

Beyond the corridors of Westminster and the offices of environmental pressure groups, where global warming and sustainability are buzzwords of the moment, British consumers continue flying, driving and buying with unchecked enthusiasm. The gulf between the pronouncements of our politicians and what the majority of people think and do, could scarcely be wider.

A survey by the polling organisation MORI, published at the end of last year but unreported by the mainstream media, found that about a third of the population - 32 per cent - still knows little or nothing about the threat of climate change. Of those who had heard of it, half thought it was at least partly a natural process, and only eleven per cent of those questioned thought it was up to individuals to change their behaviour. MORI's head of research, John Leaman, acknowledges that the battle for public opinion is not only not won, it has not even seriously begun: "The question of how you persuade people that it is to do with them is a very interesting one", he said. "We need to know whether people's attitudes are the consequence of ignorance, disbelief or personal self-interest and inertia. Even among those who do know about climate change, there is a yawning gap between what people say and what they do. I don't think there is any simple answer." As an organisation, MORI is keen to be seen taking this problem seriously. It is planning its own forum in June, to contribute ideas for ways to promote awareness and behaviour change. (Ironically, the identified key speaker appeared to be away on a foreign holiday and could not be contacted for comment.)

How then are our leaders going to engage our hearts and minds in the green debate? What will be the tipping point that will lead people not just into giving the fashionable answers in opinion polls, but to actually change their behaviour?

At the moment we are mired in a bog of confusing messages. In a portentous speech to the Green Alliance last month, the Chancellor Gordon Brown talked about the need for "new global partnerships and multilateral networks" to tackle the environmental challenge. The recent climate change review by the economist Sir Nicholas Stern predicted hundreds of millions of "climate refugees" streaming across the world in an effort to escape from drought, flood and famine.

Yet opinion polls for the BBC and others indicate that the reaction of people hearing these pronouncements is that they are simply relieved to hear the problem is nothing to do with them. An ICM poll last month found about half the people questioned in some parts of the country were quite clear about their unwillingness to change their lifestyle at all. Elsewhere, there is growing scepticism that any of it is true, and the dissenting voices are getting louder. A recent editorial in the Daily Mail told millions of readers that it is pointless to alter drastically the way we live simply on the "vague possibility of an ecological disaster".

In March, Channel 4 broadcast a documentary entitled The Great Global Warming Swindle, which notoriously ridiculed the whole basis of climate change. The programme was furiously condemned by leading scientists as misleading and badly researched. Yet Channel 4 reported that it drew more than 700 comments from viewers, with those supporting its sceptical line outnumbering critics by six to one. "People appreciated the fact that the questioning approach was being given air time", said a Channel 4 spokesman. "We are planning a discussion programme on the whole issue for June. The best time to have a debate is generally when people say there is no further need for one."

Around the same time, a lone protester from an obscure lobby group called the Association of British Drivers (ABD), garnered almost two million signatures for an online petition protesting against the introduction of road pricing as a means of limiting car use. Hugh Bladon, a spokesman for the ABD, claims that he reflects the views of many people in his conviction that discussion of global warming is simply an excuse to raise more taxes from everyone, and motorists in particular. "I enjoy driving", he said. "Lots of people do. It is total nonsense to suggest that it will make a difference if we reduce mileage by a small amount a year."

While it is hard to find anyone - outside the airline industry - to advocate air travel as fervently as Bladon advocates the right to drive, the right to fly is another area of confusion and mixed messages. Even those who regard themselves as "responsible tourists" want to carry on flying. Typical is a comment by travel agent Chris Bland on the GreenTraveller website: "While I agree with trying to limit gratuitous flying by second-home commuters or business travel junkies, I don't want genuine travellers and adventurous tourists to be dissuaded from exploring the world. For me, the message would be: fly less and make it count when you do."

From politicians, however, there is a collective reluctance to take on any of those in the wealthiest and most influential sector of the electorate - whatever their reason for getting on a plane. "Doing anything about global warming is going to hit the middle classes first", says Peter Ainsworth, the shadow environment secretary. "A lot of them do support the Daily Mail view that this is just another means of imposing more stealth taxes. Convincing them that being more energy-efficient is actually going to save money - it is not easy."

Sir Jonathon Porritt, chairman of the Sustainable Development Commission, also points to government resistance to any discussion of limitations on car travel or foreign holidays. "Politicians are preoccupied with trying to keep the same level of consumption with a lower output of carbon. In fact, we will end up paying so much for high-carbon goods that rationing will come in because of price rather than government mandate." Porritt himself believes our collective desire for self-preservation will soon win through because of the evident warming up of our world. Mark Lynas, the New Statesman columnist and author of the book Six Degrees: life in a hotter climate {1}, argues, however, that government action is imperative. "It doesn't make sense for people to make individual sacrifices while the world goes on around them. The unwillingness of people to act just reinforces the need for government to do something collectively."

Elsewhere, there is plenty of support for the view that, barring a Katrina-style hurricane catastrophe hitting Britain, consumers will not change. "It's very sad, but I actually think we might need a whole series of disasters in different countries before people make the connection", said Brian Hoskins, professor of meteorology at Reading University and a fellow of the Royal Society. "There has always been a conflict between social behaviour and selfish behaviour, but the environment is bearing down on us. It is a huge challenge to see if we can do something twenty years before it bites. We have to be optimistic about it, because otherwise we might as well give up.

"The political parties have taken off on this, but they have left behind them a considerable proportion of the electorate who are still wedded to Margaret Thatcher's notion of individual freedom to do your own thing."

According to Solitaire Townsend, founder of Futerra, a company specialising in sustainability communications, the obvious way to affect public opinion is through what she terms the cultural media - television soaps such as EastEnders or Desperate Housewives: "It is quite easy to 'de-status' things by presenting them as un-aspirational", she says. "If a big 4x4 is such an embarrassment that the kids don't want to be dropped off at school in it, then that's a success for us. The environmental movement has always focused on news and policy-makers, and forgotten how you change what people want. You can't stop people wanting status symbols, but you can make them aspire to different ones."

Numerous studies of collective psychology demonstrate that the greater the threat, the more people are inclined ignore it. John Elkington, founder of the think-tank SustainAbility, pointed out that, after the bombing of Pearl Harbor when America entered the Second World War, Ford went on making cars because they said people needed them. It was only when government intervention forced the company to turn its production lines to munitions, that Ford joined the war effort. "People almost enjoy being confused about big issues because it gives them the excuse to do nothing", Elkington said.

He does not think any major change will be orchestrated by government: "All governments are hopelessly conflicted by the pressures from industry and business. My hunch is that climate is going to give us some powerful nudges, which will cause people to panic. Ultimately though, I don't think change will come about through consumers either. It will be the result of colossal pressure from the financial markets. The costs from natural disasters caused by global warming, which are being born by the reinsurance giants such as Swiss Re and Munich Re, are simply going off the scale."


Unanswerable question

There are still those, however, who maintain that acceptance of the need to change will filter gradually through society. "It is an incredibly interesting social phenomenon", said Tim Jackson, professor of sustainable development at Surrey University. "I think we are at a turning point in the relationship between mankind and the environment, but people so far still don't see the responsibility as theirs. They think it is the job of government and big business. At some stage, society as a whole is going to have to enter the discussion."

The unanswerable question of how to do that still remains. Last month, the Market Research Society celebrated its fiftieth anniversary with a conference discussion heralding the age of the "ethical brand", which it predicted would be embraced first by the "bourgeois bohemians", the economically conservative but socially liberal baby-boomers who are the new establishment. In the absence of a climate-inspired natural disaster, however, it seems unlikely that the threat of global warming will cause the rampant materialism of even the most socially conscious sector of society to be suddenly replaced by a set of long-lost pre-industrial values.

Earlier this month, the 800 scientists involved in the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change produced their latest report. The 1,572-page document, with its predictions of death and destruction in the developing world, provided plenty of reassurance for stubborn westerners that none of it is anything to do with them. So how will the IPCC convince them of the need to accept their responsibility? Its spokesman was baffled by the question: "They just have to", he said.

Not on the evidence so far. Back in London, civil servants at the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) were last week labouring over their own "behaviour change strategy" - what it would take to get different sections of the population to change their behaviour. Next month, a "citizens summit" is being planned to decide on the shape of this strategy. When Defra was asked for the agenda, however, it was clear that the department still did not know what it would be.


Trying to get the message across ...

Defra has been running pilot "recycling incentive schemes" across the country, giving vouchers to good recyclers or entering them into recycling lottery prize draws.

Ken Livingstone is offering Londoners GBP 100 cash back if they accept cut-price insulation for their homes.

The Department for Transport's "Cycle to Work" scheme lets employees buy tax-free bikes and accessories through their employers.

Toyota has released an attractive (believe it or not) hybrid car. The part-electric, part-petrol Prius is also exempt from the London congestion charge.

Tesco is attempting to tackle plastic bag wastage with its "Bag for Life" scheme. The hard-wearing bags cost 10 pence and customers are encouraged to reuse them until they finally wear out (when they are replaced free of charge).

Pop stars including Madonna, Genesis, the Red Hot Chili Peppers and Razorlight (Johnny Borrell, pictured right) are climbing on board with a series of Live Earth concerts planned across seven continents on 7 July. The intention is to raise popular awareness of climate change. Organisers promise to keep the gigs as carbon-neutral as possible.

The Real Nappy Campaign is trying to persuade parents that giving up disposable nappies will save them at least GBP 300, as well as being better for the environment.

Property sellers now need to provide a "Home Information Pack" to prospective buyers, which includes a certificate on the home's energy efficiency.

Research: Sarah O'Connor


http://www.newstatesman.com/200704230025


Bill Totten http://www.ashisuto.co.jp/english/index.html

Wednesday, April 25, 2007

Australia's epic drought: The situation is grim

by Kathy Marks in Sydney

The Independent & The Independent on Sunday

Independent.co.uk (April 20 2007)


Australia has warned that it will have to switch off the water supply to the continent's food bowl unless heavy rains break an epic drought - heralding what could be the first climate change-driven disaster to strike a developed nation.

The Murray-Darling basin in south-eastern Australia yields forty per cent of the country's agricultural produce. But the two rivers that feed the region are so pitifully low that there will soon be only enough water for drinking supplies. Australia is in the grip of its worst drought on record, the victim of changing weather patterns attributed to global warming and a government that is only just starting to wake up to the severity of the position.

The Prime Minister, John Howard, a hardened climate-change sceptic, delivered dire tidings to the nation's farmers yesterday. Unless there is significant rainfall in the next six to eight weeks, irrigation will be banned in the principal agricultural area. Crops such as rice, cotton and wine grapes will fail, citrus, olive and almond trees will die, along with livestock.

A ban on irrigation, which would remain in place until May next year, spells possible ruin for thousands of farmers, already debt-laden and in despair after six straight years of drought.

Lovers of the Australian landscape often cite the poet Dorothea Mackellar who in 1904 penned the classic lines: "I love a sunburnt country, a land of sweeping plains". But the land that was Mackellar's muse is now cracked and parched, and its mighty rivers have shrivelled to sluggish brown streams. With paddocks reduced to dust bowls, graziers have been forced to sell off sheep and cows at rock-bottom prices or buy in feed at great expense. Some have already given up, abandoning pastoral properties that have been in their families for generations. The rural suicide rate has soared.

Mr Howard acknowledged that the measures are drastic. He said the prolonged dry spell was "unprecedentedly dangerous" for farmers, and for the economy as a whole. Releasing a new report on the state of the Murray and Darling, Mr Howard said: "It is a grim situation, and there is no point in pretending to Australia otherwise. We must all hope and pray there is rain."

But prayer may not suffice, and many people are asking why crippling water shortages in the world's driest inhabited continent are only now being addressed with any sense of urgency.

The causes of the current drought, which began in 2002 but has been felt most acutely over the past six months, are complex. But few scientists dispute the part played by climate change, which is making Australia hotter and drier.

Environmentalists point to the increasing frequency and severity of drought-causing El Nin~o weather patterns, blamed on global warming. They also note Australia's role in poisoning the Earth's atmosphere. Australians are among the world's biggest per-capita energy consumers, and among the top producers of carbon dioxide emissions. Despite that, the country is one of only two industrialised nations - the United States being the other - that have refused to ratify the 1997 Kyoto protocol. The governments argue that to do so would harm their economies.

Until a few months ago, Mr Howard and his ministers pooh-poohed the climate-change doomsayers. The Prime Minister refused to meet Al Gore when he visited Australia to promote his documentary, An Inconvenient Truth {1}. He was lukewarm about the landmark report by the British economist Sir Nicholas Stern, which warned that large swaths of Australia's farming land would become unproductive if global temperatures rose by an average of four degrees {2}.

Faced with criticism from even conservative sections of the media, Mr Howard realised that he had misread the public mood - grave faux pas in an election year. Last month's report by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predicted more frequent and intense bushfires, tropical cyclones, and catastrophic damage to the Great Barrier Reef. The report also said there would be up to twenty per cent more droughts by 2030. And it said the annual flow in the Murray-Darling basin was likely to fall by ten to 25 per cent by 2050. The basin, the size of France and Spain combined, provides 85 per cent of the water used nationally for irrigation.

While the government is determined to protect Australia's coal industry, the drought is expected to shave one per cent off annual growth this year. The farming sector of a country that once "rode the sheep's back" to prosperity is in desperate straits. With dams and reservoirs drying up, many cities and towns have been forced to introduce severe water restrictions.

Mr Howard has softened his rhetoric of late, and says that he now broadly accepts the science behind climate change. He has tried to regain the political initiative, announcing measures including a plan to take over regulatory control of the Murray-Darling river system from state governments.

He has declared nuclear power the way forward, and is even considering the merits of joining an international scheme to "trade" carbon dioxide emissions - an idea he opposed in the past.

Mr Howard's conservative coalition will face an opposition Labour Party revitalised by a popular new leader, Kevin Rudd, and offering a climate change policy that appears to be more credible than his. Ben Fargher, the head of the National Farmers' Federation, said that if fruit and olive trees died, that could mean "five to six years of lost production". Food producers also warned of major food price rises.

Mr Howard acknowledged that an irrigation ban would have a "potentially devastating" impact. But "this is very much in the lap of the gods", he said.


How UN warned Australia and New Zealand

Excerpts from UN's IPCC report on the threat of global warming to Australia and New Zealand:

"As a result of reduced precipitation and increased evaporation, water security problems are projected to intensify by 2030 in south and east Australia and, in New Zealand, in Northland and eastern regions".

* "Significant loss of biodiversity is projected to occur by 2020 in some ecologically rich sites, including the Great Barrier Reef and Queensland's tropics. Other sites at risk include the Kakadu wetlands ... and the alpine areas of both countries."

* "Ongoing coastal development and population growth in areas such as Cairns and south-east Queensland (Australia) and Northland to Bay of Plenty (New Zealand) are projected to exacerbate risks from sea-level rise and increases in the severity and frequency of storms and coastal flooding by 2050".

* "Production from agriculture and forestry by 2030 is projected to decline over much of southern and eastern Australia, and over parts of eastern New Zealand, due to increases in droughts and fires".

* "The region has substantial adaptive capacity due to well-developed economies and scientific and technical capabilities, but there are considerable constraints to implementation ... Natural systems have limited adaptive capacity".


Notes:

{1} http://www.powells.com/s?kw=an+inconvenient+truth&x=0&y=0

{2} http://www.powells.com/biblio/72-9780521700801-0


http://news.independent.co.uk/world/australasia/article2465960.ece



Bill Totten http://www.ashisuto.co.jp/english/index.html

The Anti-Empire Report

Some things you need to know before the world ends

by William Blum

killinghope.org (April 06 2007)


Land of the free, home of the War on Terrorism

"They told us this was one of the world's worst terrorists, and he got the sentence of a drunken driver", said Ben Wizner, an attorney for the American Civil Liberties Union, referring to David Hicks, a 31-year-old Australian who in a plea bargain with a US military court will serve nine months in prison, largely in Australia. That's after five years at Guanta'namo Bay, Cuba without being charged with a crime, without a trial, without a conviction. Under the deal, Hicks agreed not to talk to reporters for one year (a slap in the face of free speech), to forever waive any profit from telling his story (a slap - mon Dieu! - in the face of free enterprise), to submit to US interrogation and testify at future US trials or international tribunals (an open invitation to the US government to hound the young man for the rest of his life), to renounce any claims of mistreatment or unlawful detention (a requirement which would be unconstitutional in a civilian US court).

"If the United States were not ashamed of its conduct, it wouldn't hide behind a gag order", said Wizner. {1}

Like so many other "terrorists" held by the United States in recent years, Hicks had been "sold" to the American military for a bounty offered by the US, a phenomenon repeated frequently in Afghanistan and Pakistan. US officials had to know that once they offered payments to a very poor area to turn in bodies that almost anyone was fair game.

Other "terrorists" have been turned in as reprisals for all sorts of personal hatreds and feuds.

Many others - abroad and in the United States - have been incarcerated by the United States simply for working for, or merely contributing money to, charitable organizations with alleged or real ties to a "terrorist organization", as determined by a list kept by the State Department, a list conspicuously political.

It was recently disclosed that an Iraqi resident of Britain is being released from Guanta'namo after four years. His crime? He refused to work as an informer for the CIA and MI5, the British security service. His business partner is still being held in Guanta'namo, for the same crime. {2}

Finally, there are those many other poor souls who have been picked up simply for being in the wrong place at the wrong time. "Most of these guys weren't fighting. They were running", General Martin Lucenti, former deputy commander of Guanta'namo, has pointed out. {3}

Thousands of people thrown into hell on earth for no earthly good reason. The world media has been overflowing with their individual tales of horror and sadness for five very long years. Said Guanta'namo's former commander, General Jay Hood: "Sometimes we just didn't get the right folks". {4} Not that the torture they were put through would be justified if they were in fact "the right folks".

Hicks was taken into custody in Afghanistan in 2001. He was a convert to Islam and like many others from many countries had gone to Afghanistan for religious reasons, had wound up on the side of the Taliban in the civil war that had been going on since the early 1990s, and had received military training at a Taliban camp. The United States has insisted on calling such camps "terrorist training camps", or "anti-American terrorist training camps", or "al-Qaeda terrorist training camps". Almost every individual or group not in love with US foreign policy, which Washington wants to stigmatize, is charged with being associated with, or being a member of, al Qaeda, as if there's a precise and meaningful distinction between people retaliating against American imperialism while being a member of al Qaeda and retaliating against American imperialism while NOT being a member of al Qaeda; as if al Qaeda gives out membership cards to fit into your wallet, as if there are chapters of al Qaeda that put out a weekly newsletter and hold a potluck on the first Monday of each month.

It should be noted that for nearly half a century much of southern Florida has been one big training camp for anti-Castro terrorists. None of their groups - which have carried out many hundreds of serious terrorist acts in the US as well as abroad, including bombing a passenger airplane in flight - are on the State Department list. Nor were the Contras of Nicaragua in the 1980s, heavily supported by the United States, about whom former CIA Director Stansfield Turner testified: "I believe it is irrefutable that a number of the Contras' actions have to be characterized as terrorism, as State-supported terrorism". {5} The same applies to groups in Kosovo and Bosnia, with close ties to al Qaeda, including Osama bin Laden, in the recent past, but which have allied themselves with Washington's agenda in the former Yugoslavia since the 1990s. Now we learn of US support for a Pakistani group, called Jundullah and led by a Taliban, which has taken responsibility for the recent kidnapings and deaths and of more than a dozen Iranian soldiers and officials in cross-border attacks. {6} Do not hold your breath waiting for the name Jundallah to appear on the State Department list of terrorist organizations; nor any of the several other ethnic militias being supported by the CIA to carry out terrorist bombing and assassination attacks in Iran. {7}

The same political selectivity applies to many of the groups which are on the list, particularly those opposed to American or Israeli policies.

Amid growing pressure from their home countries and international human rights advocates, scores of Guanta'namo detainees have been quietly repatriated in the past three years. Now, a new analysis by lawyers who have represented detainees at this 21st century Devil's Island says this policy undermines Washington's own claims about the threat posed by many of the prison camp's residents. The report, based on US government case files for Saudi detainees sent home over the past three years, shows inmates being systematically freed from custody within weeks of their return. In half the cases studied, the detainees had been turned over to US forces by Pakistani police or troops in return for financial rewards. Many others were accused of terrorism connections in part because their Arab nicknames matched those found in a computer database of al-Qaeda members, documents show. In December, a survey by the Associated Press found that 84 percent of released detainees - 205 out of 245 individuals whose cases could be tracked - were set free after being released to the custody of their native countries.

"There are certainly bad people in Guanta'namo Bay, but there are also other cases where it's hard to understand why the people are still there", said Anant Raut, co-author of the report, who has visited the detention camp three times. "We were struggling to find some rationality, something to comfort us that it wasn't just random. But we didn't find it."

The report states that many of the US attempts to link the detainees to terrorism groups were based on evidence the authors describe as circumstantial and "highly questionable", such as the travel routes the detainees had followed in flying commercially from one Middle East country to another. American officials have associated certain travel routes with al Qaeda, when in fact, says the report, the routes "involve ordinary connecting flights in major international airports". With regard to accusations based on similar names, the report states: "This accusation appears to be based upon little more than similarities in the transliterations of a detainee's name and a name found on one of the hard drives".

Raut said he was most struck by the high percentage of Saudi detainees who had been captured and turned over by Pakistani forces. In effect, he said, for at least half of the group in the study, the United States "had no first-hand knowledge of their activities" in Afghanistan before their capture and imprisonment. {8}

When Michael Scheuer, former CIA officer who headed the Agency's Osama bin Laden unit, was told that the largest group in Guanta'namo came from custody in Pakistan, he said: "We absolutely got the wrong people". {9}

Never mind. They were all treated equally. All thrown into solitary confinement. Shackled, blindfolded, excruciating physical contortions for long periods, denied medicine. Sensory deprivation, sleep deprivation. And two dozen other methods of torture which American officials do not call torture. (If you torture these officials, they might admit that it "torture lite".)

"The idea is to build an antiterrorist global environment", a senior American defense official said in 2003, "so that in twenty to thirty years, terrorism will be like slave-trading, completely discredited". {10}

When will the dropping of bombs on innocent civilians by the United States, and invading and occupying their country, without their country attacking or threatening the US, become completely discredited? When will the use of depleted uranium and cluster bombs and CIA torture renditions become things that even men like George W Bush, Dick Cheney, and Donald Rumsfeld will be too embarrassed to defend?

Australian/British journalist John Pilger has noted that in George Orwell's 1984 "three slogans dominate society: war is peace, freedom is slavery and ignorance is strength. Today's slogan, war on terrorism, also reverses meaning. The war is terrorism."


Throwing the earth on the mercy of the market

Al Gore appeared before a House Energy and Commerce Committee hearing on global warming on March 21. The star of "An Inconvenient Truth" was told by Congressman Joe Barton of Texas: "You're not just off a little - you're totally wrong". In the afternoon Gore testified before the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee, during which the former vice president was told by Senator James Inhofe of Oklahoma: "You've been so extreme in some of your expressions that you're losing some of your own people". {11}

These members of Congress know the facts of economic life in the United States. Fighting global warming is a threat to the principal human generator of it - corporations - who avail themselves of the best congress members money can buy to keep government regulations as weak as can be.

Does Al Gore know the same facts of American economic life? Of course, but you would have a hard time discerning that from his film. It's as cowardly in dealing with the corporations as Gore was in fighting the theft of the 2000 election. In the film's hour and a half, the words "corporations" or "profit" are not heard. The closest he comes to ascribing a link between the rape of the environment and the incessant corporate drive to optimize profits is a single passing mention of American automakers' reluctance to increase car gas mileage. He discusses the link between tobacco and lung cancer, as an example of how we have to "connect the dots" on environmental issues, with no mention of the tobacco corporations or their gross and deliberate deception of the American people. He states at another point that we must choose the environment over the economy, without any elucidation at all. Otherwise, the film's message is that it's up to the individual to change his habits, to campaign for renewable energy, and to write his congress member about this or that. In summary, the basic problem, he tells us, is that we're lacking "political will".

It would be most interesting if Al Gore were the president to see how tough he'd get with the corporations, which every day, around the clock, are faced with choices: one method of operation available being the least harmful to the environment, another method being the least harmful to the bottom line. Of course, Gore was vice-president for eight years and was in a fantastic and enviable position to pressure the corporations to mend their ways and Congress to enact tougher regulations; as well as to educate the public on more than their own bad habits. But what exactly did he do? Can any readers enlighten me as to what extent the man used his position and his power then in a manner consistent with the image and the word of his new film?

But could Gore be elected without corporate money? And how much of that money would reach his pocket if he advocated (choke, gasp!) free government-paid public transportation - rail, bus, ferry, et cetera? That would give birth to a breathtaking - or rather, breath enhancing - reduction in automobile pollution; easily paid for by ceasing America's imperialist wars.


Microsoft and the National Security Agency

I have long felt that the American media's gravest shortcoming is its errors of omission, rather than its errors of commission. It's what they leave out that distorts the news more than any factual errors or out-and-out lies. In January the Washington Post reported that Microsoft had announced that its new operating system, Vista, was being brought to us with the assistance of the National Security Agency. The NSA said it helped to protect the operating system from worms, Trojan horses and other insidious computer attackers. "Our intention is to help everyone with security", said the NSA's chief of vulnerability analysis and operations group. The spy agency, which provided its service free, said it was Microsoft's idea to acknowledge NSA's role, although the software giant declined to be specific about NSA's contributions to Vista. {12}

What the Post - and most likely the entirety of mainstream American media - do not remind us of is what came out in 1999 and 2000, although it's all over the Internet.

In September 1999, leading European investigative reporter Duncan Campbell revealed that NSA had arranged with Microsoft to insert special "keys" into Windows operating systems, beginning with Windows 95. An American computer scientist, Andrew Fernandez of Cryptonym in North Carolina, had disassembled parts of the Windows instruction code and found the smoking gun - Microsoft's developers had failed to remove the debugging symbols used to test this software before they released it. Inside the code were the labels for two keys. One was called "KEY". The other was called "NSAKEY". Fernandez presented his finding at a conference at which some Windows developers were also in attendance. The developers did not deny that the NSA key was built into their software, but they refused to talk about what the key did, or why it had been put there without users' knowledge. Fernandez says that NSA's "back door" in the world's most commonly used operating system makes it "orders of magnitude easier for the US government to access your computer". {13}

In February 2000, it was disclosed that the Strategic Affairs Delegation (DAS), the intelligence arm of the French Defense Ministry, had prepared a report in 1999 which also asserted that NSA had helped to install secret programs in Microsoft software. According to the DAS report, "it would seem that the creation of Microsoft was largely supported, not least financially, by the NSA, and that IBM was made to accept the (Microsoft) MS-DOS operating system by the same administration". The report stated that there had been a "strong suspicion of a lack of security fed by insistent rumours about the existence of spy programmes on Microsoft, and by the presence of NSA personnel in Bill Gates' development teams". Microsoft categorically denied all the charges and the French Defense Ministry said that it did not necessarily stand by the report, which was written by "outside experts". {14}

In case the above disturbs your image of Bill Gates and his buddies as a bunch of long-haired, liberal, peacenik computer geeks, and the company as one of the non-military-oriented halfway decent corporations, the DAS report states that the Pentagon at the time was Microsoft's biggest client in the world. The Israeli military has also been an important client. In 2002, the company erected enormous billboards in Israel which bore the Microsoft logo under the text "From the depth of our heart - thanks to The Israeli Defense Forces", with the Israeli national flag in the background. {15}


The Myth of the Good War

Readers of this report will be aware that one of the points I try very hard to convey is that the reason so many Americans support US atrocities abroad is that they're convinced that no matter how bad things may look, the government means well. American leaders may make mistakes, they may blunder, they may lie, they may even on the odd occasion cause more harm than good, but they do mean well. Their intentions are honorable. Of that most Americans are certain. And one of the foundation stones for this edifice of patriotic faith is the Second World War, an historical saga that all Americans are taught about from childhood on. We all know what its real name is: "The Good War".

Which leads me to recommend a book, "The Myth of the Good War", by Jacques Pauwels, published in 2002. It's very well done, well argued and documented, an easy read. I particularly like the sections dealing with the closing months of the European campaign, during which the United States and Great Britain contemplated stabbing their Soviet ally in the back with maneuvers like a separate peace with Germany, using German troops to fight the Russians, and sabotaging legal attempts by various Communist Parties and other elements of the European left to share in (highly earned) political power after the war. This last piece of sabotage was of course very effectively realized. Stalin learned enough about these schemes to at least partially explain his post-war suspicious manner toward his "allies". In the West we called it "paranoia". {16}


NOTES

{1} Seattle Times, March 31 2007

{2} Washington Post, March 30 2007, page 11

{3} Financial Times (London), October 4 2004

{4} Wall Street Journal, January 26 2005

{5} Testimony before the House Subcommittee on Western Hemisphere Affairs, April 16 1985

{6} ABC News, April 3 2007

{7} Sunday Telegraph (London), February 25 2007

{8} Washington Post, March 18 2007

{9} Richard Ackland, "Innocence ignored at Guantanamo", Sydney Morning Herald, February 24 2006.

{10} New York Times, January 17 2003, page 10

{11} Washington Post, March 22 2007, page 2

{12} Washington Post, January 9 2007, page D1

{13} Duncan Campbell's article of September 3 1999 can be found on the website of TechWeb: http://www.techweb.com/wire/29110640

{14} Agence France Presse, February 18 and 21 2000

{15} To see one of the billboards: www.inminds.co.uk/boycott-news-0022.html

{16} http://www.alys.be/pauwels/2publi_the_myth.htm
Available in English, Spanish, French, German, Italian, and Dutch editions


William Blum is the author of:-

Killing Hope: US Military and CIA Interventions Since World War 2 (Common Courage Press, 1995)

Rogue State: A Guide to the World's Only Superpower (Zed Books, 2002)

West-Bloc Dissident: A Cold War Memoir (Soft Skull Press, 2002)

Freeing the World to Death: Essays on the American Empire (Common Courage Press, 2004)


Portions of the books can be read, and copies purchased, at http://www.killinghope.org and previous Anti-Empire Reports can be read at this website.

To add yourself to this mailing list simply send an email to bblum6@aol.com with "add" in the subject line. I'd like your name and city in the message, but that's optional. I ask for your city only in case I'll be speaking in your area.

Or put "remove" in the subject line to do the opposite.

Any part of this report may be disseminated without permission. I'd appreciate
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http://killinghope.org/aer44.htm


Bill Totten http://www.ashisuto.co.jp/english/index.html

Tuesday, April 24, 2007

Forget the whales - save the Earth

Global climate change makes all other environmental issues irrelevant.

by Hal Clifford

Los Angeles Times Op-Ed (April 21 2001)


Environmentalism is dead.

True, there are plenty of events Sunday marking the 38th anniversary of Earth Day. But most of the causes Americans associate with traditional environmentalism - recycling, cleaning up a local waterway, protecting a piece of open space, saving an endangered species or even cleaning up the air - well, they're pretty much irrelevant now.

It's not that such green activism is ineffective (as two progressive activists, Ted Nordhaus and Michael Shellenberger, asserted in a provocative 2005 white paper, "The Death of Environmentalism"). My point is more basic. Environmentalism is dead because the vast majority of environmental causes simply don't matter any more. They don't matter in the way that holding a full house doesn't matter when the guy across the table is holding four aces.

Traditional environmental concerns have been trumped by a single, overriding problem: global climate change. Henry David Thoreau asked, "What is the use of a house if you haven't got a tolerable planet to put it on?"

Environmentalists today face a similar question. Why fight for a local or even national cause when a global change could erase any victory? Preserving a beach ecosystem becomes meaningless if the coast is obliterated by a rising sea. Putting polar bears on the endangered species list is risible if the Arctic ice cap melts away to nothing each summer.

If you are a dyed-in-the-wool environmental activist, that funny feeling you have is the ground shifting beneath your feet.

When Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger proposes building two new dams in the Sierra, as he did in January, and argues that if California is going to have enough water, they are necessary to compensate for an expected reduction in the state's winter snowpack, how is a good green to respond?

Once upon a time, there was no target so quick to be challenged by the Sierra Club & Company as another dam - and these dams certainly will be challenged. But Schwarzenegger is right; we should be doing what we can to prepare for climate change, and while I don't know if those dams are a good step, I do know that the governor's argument signals a new, brutal calculus for environmentalists.

Already, old-school environmentalists Patrick Moore, co-founder of Greenpeace, and Stewart Brand, who created the Whole Earth Catalog, have embraced nuclear power as a lesser evil than climate change. Are environmentalists entering an era of wrenching hand-wringing as they choose among evils?

I hope not. Instead of triage, the right response is to accept the hard truth that the only thing that matters is controlling global warming and preventing catastrophic climate change - and then to fight like never before to do that. The dedicated, single-focus activists who make up so much of the environmental movement may, in the future, still be able to save the redwoods, or the Mexican gray wolf, or the whales - but only if we save ourselves first.

It is ironic that what's killing old environmentalism - so long derided by its critics as elitist, fringe and special interest - is a problem that is, at last, both universal and personal for every human on the planet. Climate change makes moot past environmental issues precisely because it isn't about an obscure species or remote place. It's about us, and our fate. It is about the real possibility of the unraveling of modern civilization. When a cause becomes the central concern of a society, it ceases to be a cause. It becomes an organizing principle for an era and its people.

Environmentalism may be dead, but we're all environmentalists now.

_____

Hal Clifford is executive editor of Orion magazine.

Copyright 2007 Los Angeles Times

http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/commentary/la-oe-clifford21apr21,0,2957491.story?coll=la-home-commentary


Bill Totten http://www.ashisuto.co.jp/english/index.html

Speaking Truth To Power

A Time to Break Silence

by Reverend Martin Luther King


By 1967, King had become the country's most prominent opponent of the Vietnam War, and a staunch critic of overall US foreign policy, which he deemed militaristic. In his "Beyond Vietnam" speech delivered at New York's Riverside Church on April 4 1967 - a year to the day before he was murdered - King called the United States "the greatest purveyor of violence in the world today".

Time magazine called the speech "demagogic slander that sounded like a script for Radio Hanoi," and the Washington Post declared that King had "diminished his usefulness to his cause, his country, his people". Audio mp3 of the address is at:
http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/video1/mlkagainstvietnam.mp3


Beyond Vietnam: A Time to Break Silence

by Reverend Martin Luther King


Speech delivered by Dr Martin Luther King, Jr, on April 4 1967, at a meeting of Clergy and Laity Concerned at Riverside Church in New York City.


I come to this magnificent house of worship tonight because my conscience leaves me no other choice. I join with you in this meeting because I am in deepest agreement with the aims and work of the organization which has brought us together: Clergy and Laymen Concerned about Vietnam. The recent statement of your executive committee are the sentiments of my own heart and I found myself in full accord when I read its opening lines: "A time comes when silence is betrayal". That time has come for us in relation to Vietnam.

The truth of these words is beyond doubt but the mission to which they call us is a most difficult one. Even when pressed by the demands of inner truth, men do not easily assume the task of opposing their government's policy, especially in time of war. Nor does the human spirit move without great difficulty against all the apathy of conformist thought within one's own bosom and in the surrounding world. Moreover when the issues at hand seem as perplexed as they often do in the case of this dreadful conflict we are always on the verge of being mesmerized by uncertainty; but we must move on.

Some of us who have already begun to break the silence of the night have found that the calling to speak is often a vocation of agony, but we must speak. We must speak with all the humility that is appropriate to our limited vision, but we must speak. And we must rejoice as well, for surely this is the first time in our nation's history that a significant number of its religious leaders have chosen to move beyond the prophesying of smooth patriotism to the high grounds of a firm dissent based upon the mandates of conscience and the reading of history. Perhaps a new spirit is rising among us. If it is, let us trace its movement well and pray that our own inner being may be sensitive to its guidance, for we are deeply in need of a new way beyond the darkness that seems so close around us.

Over the past two years, as I have moved to break the betrayal of my own silences and to speak from the burnings of my own heart, as I have called for radical departures from the destruction of Vietnam, many persons have questioned me about the wisdom of my path. At the heart of their concerns this query has often loomed large and loud: Why are you speaking about war, Dr King? Why are you joining the voices of dissent? Peace and civil rights don't mix, they say. Aren't you hurting the cause of your people, they ask? And when I hear them, though I often understand the source of their concern, I am nevertheless greatly saddened, for such questions mean that the inquirers have not really known me, my commitment or my calling. Indeed, their questions suggest that they do not know the world in which they live.

In the light of such tragic misunderstandings, I deem it of signal importance to try to state clearly, and I trust concisely, why I believe that the path from Dexter Avenue Baptist Church - the church in Montgomery, Alabama, where I began my pastorate - leads clearly to this sanctuary tonight.

I come to this platform tonight to make a passionate plea to my beloved nation. This speech is not addressed to Hanoi or to the National Liberation Front. It is not addressed to China or to Russia.

Nor is it an attempt to overlook the ambiguity of the total situation and the need for a collective solution to the tragedy of Vietnam. Neither is it an attempt to make North Vietnam or the National Liberation Front paragons of virtue, nor to overlook the role they can play in a successful resolution of the problem. While they both may have justifiable reason to be suspicious of the good faith of the United States, life and history give eloquent testimony to the fact that conflicts are never resolved without trustful give and take on both sides.

Tonight, however, I wish not to speak with Hanoi and the NLF, but rather to my fellow Americans, who, with me, bear the greatest responsibility in ending a conflict that has exacted a heavy price on both continents.


The Importance of Vietnam

Since I am a preacher by trade, I suppose it is not surprising that I have seven major reasons for bringing Vietnam into the field of my moral vision. There is at the outset a very obvious and almost facile connection between the war in Vietnam and the struggle I, and others, have been waging in America. A few years ago there was a shining moment in that struggle. It seemed as if there was a real promise of hope for the poor - both black and white - through the poverty program. There were experiments, hopes, new beginnings. Then came the buildup in Vietnam and I watched the program broken and eviscerated as if it were some idle political plaything of a society gone mad on war, and I knew that America would never invest the necessary funds or energies in rehabilitation of its poor so long as adventures like Vietnam continued to draw men and skills and money like some demonic destructive suction tube. So I was increasingly compelled to see the war as an enemy of the poor and to attack it as such.

Perhaps the more tragic recognition of reality took place when it became clear to me that the war was doing far more than devastating the hopes of the poor at home. It was sending their sons and their brothers and their husbands to fight and to die in extraordinarily high proportions relative to the rest of the population. We were taking the black young men who had been crippled by our society and sending them eight thousand miles away to guarantee liberties in Southeast Asia which they had not found in southwest Georgia and East Harlem. So we have been repeatedly faced with the cruel irony of watching Negro and white boys on TV screens as they kill and die together for a nation that has been unable to seat them together in the same schools. So we watch them in brutal solidarity burning the huts of a poor village, but we realize that they would never live on the same block in Detroit. I could not be silent in the face of such cruel manipulation of the poor.

My third reason moves to an even deeper level of awareness, for it grows out of my experience in the ghettoes of the North over the last three years - especially the last three summers. As I have walked among the desperate, rejected and angry young men I have told them that Molotov cocktails and rifles would not solve their problems. I have tried to offer them my deepest compassion while maintaining my conviction that social change comes most meaningfully through nonviolent action. But they asked - and rightly so - what about Vietnam? They asked if our own nation wasn't using massive doses of violence to solve its problems, to bring about the changes it wanted. Their questions hit home, and I knew that I could never again raise my voice against the violence of the oppressed in the ghettos without having first spoken clearly to the greatest purveyor of violence in the world today - my own government. For the sake of those boys, for the sake of this government, for the sake of hundreds of thousands trembling under our violence, I cannot be silent.

For those who ask the question, "Aren't you a civil rights leader?" and thereby mean to exclude me from the movement for peace, I have this further answer. In 1957 when a group of us formed the Southern Christian Leadership Conference, we chose as our motto: "To save the soul of America". We were convinced that we could not limit our vision to certain rights for black people, but instead affirmed the conviction that America would never be free or saved from itself unless the descendants of its slaves were loosed completely from the shackles they still wear. In a way we were agreeing with Langston Hughes, that black bard of Harlem, who had written earlier:

O, yes,
I say it plain,

America never was America to me,

And yet I swear this oath -

America will be!



Now, it should be incandescently clear that no one who has any concern for the integrity and life of America today can ignore the present war. If America's soul becomes totally poisoned, part of the autopsy must read Vietnam. It can never be saved so long as it destroys the deepest hopes of men the world over. So it is that those of us who are yet determined that America will be are led down the path of protest and dissent, working for the health of our land.

As if the weight of such a commitment to the life and health of America were not enough, another burden of responsibility was placed upon me in 1964; and I cannot forget that the Nobel Prize for Peace was also a commission - a commission to work harder than I had ever worked before for "the brotherhood of man". This is a calling that takes me beyond national allegiances, but even if it were not present I would yet have to live with the meaning of my commitment to the ministry of Jesus Christ. To me the relationship of this ministry to the making of peace is so obvious that I sometimes marvel at those who ask me why I am speaking against the war. Could it be that they do not know that the good news was meant for all men - for Communist and capitalist, for their children and ours, for black and for white, for revolutionary and conservative? Have they forgotten that my ministry is in obedience to the one who loved his enemies so fully that he died for them? What then can I say to the "Vietcong" or to Castro or to Mao as a faithful minister of this one? Can I threaten them with death or must I not share with them my life?

Finally, as I try to delineate for you and for myself the road that leads from Montgomery to this place I would have offered all that was most valid if I simply said that I must be true to my conviction that I share with all men the calling to be a son of the living God. Beyond the calling of race or nation or creed is this vocation of sonship and brotherhood, and because I believe that the Father is deeply concerned especially for his suffering and helpless and outcast children, I come tonight to speak for them.

This I believe to be the privilege and the burden of all of us who deem ourselves bound by allegiances and loyalties which are broader and deeper than nationalism and which go beyond our nation's self-defined goals and positions. We are called to speak for the weak, for the voiceless, for victims of our nation and for those it calls enemy, for no document from human hands can make these humans any less our brothers.


Strange Liberators

And as I ponder the madness of Vietnam and search within myself for ways to understand and respond to compassion my mind goes constantly to the people of that peninsula. I speak now not of the soldiers of each side, not of the junta in Saigon, but simply of the people who have been living under the curse of war for almost three continuous decades now. I think of them too because it is clear to me that there will be no meaningful solution there until some attempt is made to know them and hear their broken cries.

They must see Americans as strange liberators. The Vietnamese people proclaimed their own independence in 1945 after a combined French and Japanese occupation, and before the Communist revolution in China. They were led by Ho Chi Minh. Even though they quoted the American Declaration of Independence in their own document of freedom, we refused to recognize them. Instead, we decided to support France in its reconquest of her former colony.

Our government felt then that the Vietnamese people were not "ready" for independence, and we again fell victim to the deadly Western arrogance that has poisoned the international atmosphere for so long. With that tragic decision we rejected a revolutionary government seeking self-determination, and a government that had been established not by China (for whom the Vietnamese have no great love) but by clearly indigenous forces that included some Communists. For the peasants this new government meant real land reform, one of the most important needs in their lives.

For nine years following 1945 we denied the people of Vietnam the right of independence. For nine years we vigorously supported the French in their abortive effort to recolonize Vietnam.

Before the end of the war we were meeting eighty percent of the French war costs. Even before the French were defeated at Dien Bien Phu, they began to despair of the reckless action, but we did not. We encouraged them with our huge financial and military supplies to continue the war even after they had lost the will. Soon we would be paying almost the full costs of this tragic attempt at recolonization.

After the French were defeated it looked as if independence and land reform would come again through the Geneva agreements. But instead there came the United States, determined that Ho should not unify the temporarily divided nation, and the peasants watched again as we supported one of the most vicious modern dictators - our chosen man, Premier Diem. The peasants watched and cringed as Diem ruthlessly routed out all opposition, supported their extortionist landlords and refused even to discuss reunification with the north. The peasants watched as all this was presided over by US influence and then by increasing numbers of US troops who came to help quell the insurgency that Diem's methods had aroused. When Diem was overthrown they may have been happy, but the long line of military dictatorships seemed to offer no real change - especially in terms of their need for land and peace.

The only change came from America as we increased our troop commitments in support of governments which were singularly corrupt, inept and without popular support. All the while the people read our leaflets and received regular promises of peace and democracy - and land reform. Now they languish under our bombs and consider us - not their fellow Vietnamese - the real enemy. They move sadly and apathetically as we herd them off the land of their fathers into concentration camps where minimal social needs are rarely met. They know they must move or be destroyed by our bombs. So they go - primarily women and children and the aged.

They watch as we poison their water, as we kill a million acres of their crops. They must weep as the bulldozers roar through their areas preparing to destroy the precious trees. They wander into the hospitals, with at least twenty casualties from American firepower for one "Vietcong" - inflicted injury. So far we may have killed a million of them - mostly children. They wander into the towns and see thousands of the children, homeless, without clothes, running in packs on the streets like animals. They see the children, degraded by our soldiers as they beg for food. They see the children selling their sisters to our soldiers, soliciting for their mothers.

What do the peasants think as we ally ourselves with the landlords and as we refuse to put any action into our many words concerning land reform? What do they think as we test our latest weapons on them, just as the Germans tested out new medicine and new tortures in the concentration camps of Europe? Where are the roots of the independent Vietnam we claim to be building? Is it among these voiceless ones?

We have destroyed their two most cherished institutions: the family and the village. We have destroyed their land and their crops. We have cooperated in the crushing of the nation's only non-Communist revolutionary political force - the unified Buddhist church. We have supported the enemies of the peasants of Saigon. We have corrupted their women and children and killed their men. What liberators?

Now there is little left to build on - save bitterness. Soon the only solid physical foundations remaining will be found at our military bases and in the concrete of the concentration camps we call fortified hamlets. The peasants may well wonder if we plan to build our new Vietnam on such grounds as these? Could we blame them for such thoughts? We must speak for them and raise the questions they cannot raise. These too are our brothers.

Perhaps the more difficult but no less necessary task is to speak for those who have been designated as our enemies. What of the National Liberation Front - that strangely anonymous group we call VC or Communists? What must they think of us in America when they realize that we permitted the repression and cruelty of Diem which helped to bring them into being as a resistance group in the south? What do they think of our condoning the violence which led to their own taking up of arms? How can they believe in our integrity when now we speak of "aggression from the north" as if there were nothing more essential to the war? How can they trust us when now we charge them with violence after the murderous reign of Diem and charge them with violence while we pour every new weapon of death into their land? Surely we must understand their feelings even if we do not condone their actions. Surely we must see that the men we supported pressed them to their violence. Surely we must see that our own computerized plans of destruction simply dwarf their greatest acts.

How do they judge us when our officials know that their membership is less than twenty-five percent Communist and yet insist on giving them the blanket name? What must they be thinking when they know that we are aware of their control of major sections of Vietnam and yet we appear ready to allow national elections in which this highly organized political parallel government will have no part? They ask how we can speak of free elections when the Saigon press is censored and controlled by the military junta. And they are surely right to wonder what kind of new government we plan to help form without them - the only party in real touch with the peasants. They question our political goals and they deny the reality of a peace settlement from which they will be excluded. Their questions are frighteningly relevant. Is our nation planning to build on political myth again and then shore it up with the power of new violence?

Here is the true meaning and value of compassion and nonviolence when it helps us to see the enemy's point of view, to hear his questions, to know his assessment of ourselves. For from his view we may indeed see the basic weaknesses of our own condition, and if we are mature, we may learn and grow and profit from the wisdom of the brothers who are called the opposition.

So, too, with Hanoi. In the north, where our bombs now pummel the land, and our mines endanger the waterways, we are met by a deep but understandable mistrust. To speak for them is to explain this lack of confidence in Western words, and especially their distrust of American intentions now. In Hanoi are the men who led the nation to independence against the Japanese and the French, the men who sought membership in the French commonwealth and were betrayed by the weakness of Paris and the willfulness of the colonial armies. It was they who led a second struggle against French domination at tremendous costs, and then were persuaded to give up the land they controlled between the thirteenth and seventeenth parallel as a temporary measure at Geneva. After 1954 they watched us conspire with Diem to prevent elections which would have surely brought Ho Chi Minh to power over a united Vietnam, and they realized they had been betrayed again.

When we ask why they do not leap to negotiate, these things must be remembered. Also it must be clear that the leaders of Hanoi considered the presence of American troops in support of the Diem regime to have been the initial military breach of the Geneva agreements concerning foreign troops, and they remind us that they did not begin to send in any large number of supplies or men until American forces had moved into the tens of thousands.

Hanoi remembers how our leaders refused to tell us the truth about the earlier North Vietnamese overtures for peace, how the president claimed that none existed when they had clearly been made. Ho Chi Minh has watched as America has spoken of peace and built up its forces, and now he has surely heard of the increasing international rumors of American plans for an invasion of the north. He knows the bombing and shelling and mining we are doing are part of traditional pre-invasion strategy. Perhaps only his sense of humor and of irony can save him when he hears the most powerful nation of the world speaking of aggression as it drops thousands of bombs on a poor weak nation more than eight thousand miles away from its shores.

At this point I should make it clear that while I have tried in these last few minutes to give a voice to the voiceless on Vietnam and to understand the arguments of those who are called enemy, I am as deeply concerned about our troops there as anything else. For it occurs to me that what we are submitting them to in Vietnam is not simply the brutalizing process that goes on in any war where armies face each other and seek to destroy. We are adding cynicism to the process of death, for they must know after a short period there that none of the things we claim to be fighting for are really involved. Before long they must know that their government has sent them into a struggle among Vietnamese, and the more sophisticated surely realize that we are on the side of the wealthy and the secure while we create hell for the poor.


This Madness Must Cease

Somehow this madness must cease. We must stop now. I speak as a child of God and brother to the suffering poor of Vietnam. I speak for those whose land is being laid waste, whose homes are being destroyed, whose culture is being subverted. I speak for the poor of America who are paying the double price of smashed hopes at home and death and corruption in Vietnam. I speak as a citizen of the world, for the world as it stands aghast at the path we have taken. I speak as an American to the leaders of my own nation. The great initiative in this war is ours. The initiative to stop it must be ours.

This is the message of the great Buddhist leaders of Vietnam. Recently one of them wrote these words:

"Each day the war goes on the hatred increases in the heart of the Vietnamese and in the hearts of those of humanitarian instinct. The Americans are forcing even their friends into becoming their enemies. It is curious that the Americans, who calculate so carefully on the possibilities of military victory, do not realize that in the process they are incurring deep psychological and political defeat. The image of America will never again be the image of revolution, freedom and democracy, but the image of violence and militarism."

If we continue, there will be no doubt in my mind and in the mind of the world that we have no honorable intentions in Vietnam. It will become clear that our minimal expectation is to occupy it as an American colony and men will not refrain from thinking that our maximum hope is to goad China into a war so that we may bomb her nuclear installations. If we do not stop our war against the people of Vietnam immediately the world will be left with no other alternative than to see this as some horribly clumsy and deadly game we have decided to play.

The world now demands a maturity of America that we may not be able to achieve. It demands that we admit that we have been wrong from the beginning of our adventure in Vietnam, that we have been detrimental to the life of the Vietnamese people. The situation is one in which we must be ready to turn sharply from our present ways.

In order to atone for our sins and errors in Vietnam, we should take the initiative in bringing a halt to this tragic war. I would like to suggest five concrete things that our government should do immediately to begin the long and difficult process of extricating ourselves from this nightmarish conflict:

End all bombing in North and South Vietnam.

Declare a unilateral cease-fire in the hope that such action will create the atmosphere for negotiation.

Take immediate steps to prevent other battlegrounds in Southeast Asia by curtailing our military buildup in Thailand and our interference in Laos.

Realistically accept the fact that the National Liberation Front has substantial support in South Vietnam and must thereby play a role in any meaningful negotiations and in any future Vietnam government.

Set a date that we will remove all foreign troops from Vietnam in accordance with the 1954 Geneva agreement.


Part of our ongoing commitment might well express itself in an offer to grant asylum to any Vietnamese who fears for his life under a new regime which included the Liberation Front. Then we must make what reparations we can for the damage we have done. We most provide the medical aid that is badly needed, making it available in this country if necessary.


Protesting The War

Meanwhile we in the churches and synagogues have a continuing task while we urge our government to disengage itself from a disgraceful commitment. We must continue to raise our voices if our nation persists in its perverse ways in Vietnam. We must be prepared to match actions with words by seeking out every creative means of protest possible.

As we counsel young men concerning military service we must clarify for them our nation's role in Vietnam and challenge them with the alternative of conscientious objection. I am pleased to say that this is the path now being chosen by more than seventy students at my own alma mater, Morehouse College, and I recommend it to all who find the American course in Vietnam a dishonorable and unjust one. Moreover I would encourage all ministers of draft age to give up their ministerial exemptions and seek status as conscientious objectors. These are the times for real choices and not false ones. We are at the moment when our lives must be placed on the line if our nation is to survive its own folly. Every man of humane convictions must decide on the protest that best suits his convictions, but we must all protest.

There is something seductively tempting about stopping there and sending us all off on what in some circles has become a popular crusade against the war in Vietnam. I say we must enter the struggle, but I wish to go on now to say something even more disturbing. The war in Vietnam is but a symptom of a far deeper malady within the American spirit, and if we ignore this sobering reality we will find ourselves organizing clergy- and laymen-concerned committees for the next generation. They will be concerned about Guatemala and Peru. They will be concerned about Thailand and Cambodia. They will be concerned about Mozambique and South Africa. We will be marching for these and a dozen other names and attending rallies without end unless there is a significant and profound change in American life and policy. Such thoughts take us beyond Vietnam, but not beyond our calling as sons of the living God.

In 1957 a sensitive American official overseas said that it seemed to him that our nation was on the wrong side of a world revolution. During the past ten years we have seen emerge a pattern of suppression which now has justified the presence of US military "advisors" in Venezuela. This need to maintain social stability for our investments accounts for the counter-revolutionary action of American forces in Guatemala. It tells why American helicopters are being used against guerrillas in Colombia and why American napalm and green beret forces have already been active against rebels in Peru. It is with such activity in mind that the words of the late John F Kennedy come back to haunt us. Five years ago he said, "Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable".

Increasingly, by choice or by accident, this is the role our nation has taken - the role of those who make peaceful revolution impossible by refusing to give up the privileges and the pleasures that come from the immense profits of overseas investment.

I am convinced that if we are to get on the right side of the world revolution, we as a nation must undergo a radical revolution of values. We must rapidly begin the shift from a "thing-oriented" society to a "person-oriented" society. When machines and computers, profit motives and property rights are considered more important than people, the giant triplets of racism, materialism, and militarism are incapable of being conquered.

A true revolution of values will soon cause us to question the fairness and justice of many of our past and present policies. On the one hand we are called to play the good Samaritan on life's roadside; but that will be only an initial act. One day we must come to see that the whole Jericho road must be transformed so that men and women will not be constantly beaten and robbed as they make their journey on life's highway. True compassion is more than flinging a coin to a beggar; it is not haphazard and superficial. It comes to see that an edifice which produces beggars needs restructuring. A true revolution of values will soon look uneasily on the glaring contrast of poverty and wealth. With righteous indignation, it will look across the seas and see individual capitalists of the West investing huge sums of money in Asia, Africa and South America, only to take the profits out with no concern for the social betterment of the countries, and say: "This is not just". It will look at our alliance with the landed gentry of Latin America and say: "This is not just". The Western arrogance of feeling that it has everything to teach others and nothing to learn from them is not just. A true revolution of values will lay hands on the world order and say of war: "This way of settling differences is not just". This business of burning human beings with napalm, of filling our nation's homes with orphans and widows, of injecting poisonous drugs of hate into veins of people normally humane, of sending men home from dark and bloody battlefields physically handicapped and psychologically deranged, cannot be reconciled with wisdom, justice and love. A nation that continues year after year to spend more money on military defense than on programs of social uplift is approaching spiritual death.

America, the richest and most powerful nation in the world, can well lead the way in this revolution of values. There is nothing, except a tragic death wish, to prevent us from reordering our priorities, so that the pursuit of peace will take precedence over the pursuit of war. There is nothing to keep us from molding a recalcitrant status quo with bruised hands until we have fashioned it into a brotherhood.

This kind of positive revolution of values is our best defense against communism. War is not the answer. Communism will never be defeated by the use of atomic bombs or nuclear weapons. Let us not join those who shout war and through their misguided passions urge the United States to relinquish its participation in the United Nations. These are days which demand wise restraint and calm reasonableness. We must not call everyone a Communist or an appeaser who advocates the seating of Red China in the United Nations and who recognizes that hate and hysteria are not the final answers to the problem of these turbulent days. We must not engage in a negative anti-communism, but rather in a positive thrust for democracy, realizing that our greatest defense against communism is to take offensive action in behalf of justice. We must with positive action seek to remove thosse conditions of poverty, insecurity and injustice which are the fertile soil in which the seed of communism grows and develops.


The People Are Important

These are revolutionary times. All over the globe men are revolting against old systems of exploitation and oppression and out of the wombs of a frail world new systems of justice and equality are being born. The shirtless and barefoot people of the land are rising up as never before. "The people who sat in darkness have seen a great light". We in the West must support these revolutions. It is a sad fact that, because of comfort, complacency, a morbid fear of communism, and our proneness to adjust to injustice, the Western nations that initiated so much of the revolutionary spirit of the modern world have now become the arch anti-revolutionaries. This has driven many to feel that only Marxism has the revolutionary spirit. Therefore, communism is a judgement against our failure to make democracy real and follow through on the revolutions we initiated. Our only hope today lies in our ability to recapture the revolutionary spirit and go out into a sometimes hostile world declaring eternal hostility to poverty, racism, and militarism. With this powerful commitment we shall boldly challenge the status quo and unjust mores and thereby speed the day when "every valley shall be exalted, and every moutain and hill shall be made low, and the crooked shall be made straight and the rough places plain".

A genuine revolution of values means in the final analysis that our loyalties must become ecumenical rather than sectional. Every nation must now develop an overriding loyalty to mankind as a whole in order to preserve the best in their individual societies.

This call for a world-wide fellowship that lifts neighborly concern beyond one's tribe, race, class and nation is in reality a call for an all-embracing and unconditional love for all men. This oft misunderstood and misinterpreted concept - so readily dismissed by the Nietzsches of the world as a weak and cowardly force - has now become an absolute necessity for the survival of man. When I speak of love I am not speaking of some sentimental and weak response. I am speaking of that force which all of the great religions have seen as the supreme unifying principle of life. Love is somehow the key that unlocks the door which leads to ultimate reality. This Hindu- Moslem- Christian- Jewish- Buddhist belief about ultimate reality is beautifully summed up in the first epistle of Saint John:

Let us love one another; for love is God and everyone that loveth is born of God and knoweth God. He that loveth not knoweth not God; for God is love. If we love one another God dwelleth in us, and his love is perfected in us.


Let us hope that this spirit will become the order of the day. We can no longer afford to worship the god of hate or bow before the altar of retaliation. The oceans of history are made turbulent by the ever-rising tides of hate. History is cluttered with the wreckage of nations and individuals that pursued this self-defeating path of hate. As Arnold Toynbee says : "Love is the ultimate force that makes for the saving choice of life and good against the damning choice of death and evil. Therefore the first hope in our inventory must be the hope that love is going to have the last word."

We are now faced with the fact that tomorrow is today. We are confronted with the fierce urgency of now. In this unfolding conundrum of life and history there is such a thing as being too late. Procrastination is still the thief of time. Life often leaves us standing bare, naked and dejected with a lost opportunity. The "tide in the affairs of men" does not remain at the flood; it ebbs. We may cry out deperately for time to pause in her passage, but time is deaf to every plea and rushes on. Over the bleached bones and jumbled residue of numerous civilizations are written the pathetic words: "Too late". There is an invisible book of life that faithfully records our vigilance or our neglect. "The moving finger writes, and having writ moves on ..." We still have a choice today; nonviolent coexistence or violent co-annihilation.

We must move past indecision to action. We must find new ways to speak for peace in Vietnam and justice throughout the developing world - a world that borders on our doors. If we do not act we shall surely be dragged down the long dark and shameful corridors of time reserved for those who possess power without compassion, might without morality, and strength without sight.

Now let us begin. Now let us rededicate ourselves to the long and bitter - but beautiful - struggle for a new world. This is the calling of the sons of God, and our brothers wait eagerly for our response. Shall we say the odds are too great? Shall we tell them the struggle is too hard? Will our message be that the forces of American life militate against their arrival as full men, and we send our deepest regrets? Or will there be another message, of longing, of hope, of solidarity with their yearnings, of commitment to their cause, whatever the cost? The choice is ours, and though we might prefer it otherwise we must choose in this crucial moment of human history.

As that noble bard of yesterday, James Russell Lowell, eloquently stated:

Once to every man and nation
Comes the moment to decide,

In the strife of truth and falsehood,

For the good or evil side;

Some great cause, God's new Messiah,

Off'ring each the bloom or blight,

And the choice goes by forever

Twixt that darkness and that light.


Though the cause of evil prosper,

Yet 'tis truth alone is strong;

Though her portion be the scaffold,

And upon the throne be wrong:

Yet that scaffold sways the future,

And behind the dim unknown,

Standeth God within the shadow

Keeping watch above his own.



http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article2564.htm


Bill Totten http://www.ashisuto.co.jp/english/index.html

Monday, April 23, 2007

Native Perspective on Virginia Tech Headlines

by Kat Teraji

Gilroy Dispatch (April 19 2007)


Bury my heart at Wounded Knee, Deep in the Earth, Cover me with pretty lies - bury my heart at Wounded Knee. Didn't we learn to crawl, and still our history gets written in a liar's scrawl. They tell 'ya "Honey, you can still be an Indian d-d-down at the 'Y' on Saturday nights".
-- lyrics to "Bury My Heart at Wounded Knee", written by Buffy St Marie


"The worst shooting rampage in American history ..."

"Massacre and Mourning, 33 die in worst shooting in US History", and

"Rampage called worst mass shooting in US history".

"What first appeared to be a single shooting death unfolded into the worst gun massacre in the nation's history".


You've seen and heard these headlines and reports all week as the media provided non-stop coverage of the tragic shooting of 33 people at Virginia Tech University on Monday.

"The worst in US history ..." Really? It is certainly the worst shooting on a college campus in modern US history. But if we think it is the worst shooting rampage in US history, then we are a singularly uneducated nation.

"I can't take one more of these headlines", said Joan Redfern, a member of the Lakota Sioux tribe who lives in Hollister. We met at First Street Coffee to talk while we scanned Internet stories. "Haven't any of these people ever heard of the Massacre at Sand Creek in Colorado, where Methodist minister Colonel Chivington massacred between 200 and 400 Cheyenne and Arapaho Indians, most of them women, children, and elderly men?"

Chivington specifically ordered the killing of children, and when he was asked why, he said, "Kill and scalp all, big and little; nits make lice".

At Wounded Knee Creek in South Dakota, the US Seventh Cavalry attacked 350 unarmed Lakota Sioux on December 29 1890. While engaged in a spiritual practice known as the "Ghost Dance", approximately ninety warriors and 200 women and children were killed. Although the attack was officially reported as an "unjustifiable massacre" by Field Commander General Nelson A Miles, 23 soldiers were awarded the Medal of Honor for the slaughter. The unarmed Lakota men fought back with bare hands. The elderly men and women stood and sang their death songs while falling under the hail of bullets. Soldiers stripped the bodies of the dead Lakota, keeping their ceremonial religious clothing as souvenirs.

"To say the Virginia shooting is the worst in all of US history is to pour salt on old wounds - it means erasing and forgetting all of our ancestors who were killed in the past", Redfern said.

"The use of hyperbole and lack of historical perspective seems all too ubiquitous in much of the current mainstream media", Redfern said. "My intention is not to downplay the horror of what has happened this week in any way. But we have a 500-year history of mass shootings on American soil, and let's not forget it."

This is only the most recent mass shooting massacre in a long history of mass shootings in a country engaged in a long love affair with firearms and very little interest in gun control.

Let's not forget our history and the richness of our Native roots. While spending time on the 1.5 million acre Hopi Reservation in Arizona, I met families living in homes they have occupied for over 900 years. On the surface, it looks like a third world country: you will observe many homes without running water, travel unpaved roads, and notice that there are no building codes. But sitting in a Hopi home being served a delicious lunch cooked by a proud Hopi working mother, I experienced so much more: the continuity of a long and deep heritage, a sense of the sacred, an artistic expertise, and wisdom about many things that remain a mystery to my culture.

Most of all, may we never forget all those innocent civilian men, women, and children who lost their lives simply for being in the wrong place at the wrong time, just as the students happened to be this week in Virginia. May we always remember the precious humanity of these students, but may we also never forget the humanity of those who lost their lives simply for being born people Native to this country ...

_____

Kat Teraji is communications coordinator for a large non-profit organization that benefits women and children. Her column appears every Thursday in the Take 2 section of the Dispatch. You can reach her at kattoy@verizon.net .


http://www.gilroydispatch.com/news/contentview.asp?c=212045


Bill Totten http://www.ashisuto.co.jp/english/index.html

The Martin Luther King You Don't See on TV

by Norman Solomon and Jeff Cohen

ZNet Commentary (April 16 2007)


It's become a TV ritual: Every year on April 4, as Americans commemorate Martin Luther King's death, we get perfunctory network news reports about "the slain civil rights leader".

The remarkable thing about these reviews of King's life is that several years - his last years - are totally missing, as if flushed down a memory hole.

What TV viewers see is a closed loop of familiar file footage: King battling desegregation in Birmingham (1963); reciting his dream of racial harmony at the rally in Washington (1963); marching for voting rights in Selma, Alabama (1965); and finally, lying dead on the motel balcony in Memphis (1968).

An alert viewer might notice that the chronology jumps from 1965 to 1968. Yet King didn't take a sabbatical near the end of his life. In fact, he was speaking and organizing as diligently as ever.

Almost all of those speeches were filmed or taped. But they're not shown today on TV.

Why?

It's because national news media have never come to terms with what Martin Luther King Jr stood for during his final years.

In the early 1960s, when King focused his challenge on legalized racial discrimination in the South, most major media were his allies. Network TV and national publications graphically showed the police dogs and bullwhips and cattle prods used against Southern blacks who sought the right to vote or to eat at a public lunch counter.

But after passage of civil rights acts in 1964 and 1965, King began challenging the nation's fundamental priorities. He maintained that civil rights laws were empty without "human rights" - including economic rights. For people too poor to eat at a restaurant or afford a decent home, King said, anti-discrimination laws were hollow.

Noting that a majority of Americans below the poverty line were white, King developed a class perspective. He decried the huge income gaps between rich and poor, and called for "radical changes in the structure of our society" to redistribute wealth and power.

"True compassion", King declared, "is more than flinging a coin to a beggar; it comes to see that an edifice which produces beggars needs restructuring".

By 1967, King had also become the country's most prominent opponent of the Vietnam War, and a staunch critic of overall US foreign policy, which he deemed militaristic. In his "Beyond Vietnam" speech delivered at New York's Riverside Church on April 4 1967 - a year to the day before he was murdered - King called the United States "the greatest purveyor of violence in the world today". Full text/audio are at: http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article2564.htm

From Vietnam to South Africa to Latin America, King said, the US was "on the wrong side of a world revolution". King questioned "our alliance with the landed gentry of Latin America", and asked why the US was suppressing revolutions "of the shirtless and barefoot people" in the Third World, instead of supporting them.

In foreign policy, King also offered an economic critique, complaining about "capitalists of the West investing huge sums of money in Asia, Africa and South America, only to take the profits out with no concern for the social betterment of the countries".

You haven't heard the "Beyond Vietnam" speech on network news retrospectives, but national media heard it loud and clear back in 1967 - and loudly denounced it. Time magazine called it "demagogic slander that sounded like a script for Radio Hanoi". The Washington Post patronized that "King has diminished his usefulness to his cause, his country, his people".

In his last months, King was organizing the most militant project of his life: the Poor People's Campaign. He crisscrossed the country to assemble "a multiracial army of the poor" that would descend on Washington - engaging in nonviolent civil disobedience at the Capitol, if need be - until Congress enacted a poor people's bill of rights. Reader's Digest warned of an "insurrection".

King's economic bill of rights called for massive government jobs programs to rebuild America's cities. He saw a crying need to confront a Congress that had demonstrated its "hostility to the poor" - appropriating "military funds with alacrity and generosity", but providing "poverty funds with miserliness".

How familiar that sounds today, nearly forty years after King's efforts on behalf of the poor people's mobilization were cut short by an assassin's bullet.

In 2007, in this nation of immense wealth, the White House and most in Congress continue to accept the perpetuation of poverty. They fund foreign wars with "alacrity and generosity", while being miserly in dispensing funds for education and healthcare and environmental cleanup.

And those priorities are largely unquestioned by mainstream media. No surprise that they tell us so little about the last years of Martin Luther King's life.

_____

Jeff Cohen is the author of Cable News Confidential: My Misadventures in Corporate Media (Polipoint Press, 2006).

Norman Solomon's book War Made Easy: How Presidents and Pundits Keep Spinning Us to Death (John Wiley & Sons, 2006) is out in paperback.


http://www.zmag.org/sustainers/content/2007-04/16solomon-cohen.cfm


Bill Totten http://www.ashisuto.co.jp/english/index.html

Sunday, April 22, 2007

Driverless

by Bernard Avishai

Harper's Magazine Notebook (April 2007)


In late November, I visited the campus of Al-Quds University in Abu Dis, an eastern suburb of Jerusalem, to attend an international conference on Palestinian refugees. Numbers are hard to validate, but it is widely accepted that five million survivors and descendants of the 750,000 Arabs who fled (or were chased out of) Israel during the 1948 war, as well as the 500,000 who were displaced in 1967, remain refugees. Of those registered refugees living outside the Palestinian Authority, about two thirds are in Jordan, where most qualify for citizenship, and thirty percent are evenly divided between Syria and Lebanon, where they generally do not. Palestinians will tell you that the right of return to their homes is sacred. As many as forty percent of the refugee families still live in squalid camps, in leaking houses of cracked concrete and tin roofs. According to American University of Beirut sociologist Sari Hanafi, only a small percentage of camp dwellers marry people from the outside; the camps, he argues, are like bones misplaced in muscle, with no "connective tissue" to the urban centers where real life happens.

Israelis will tell you the refugee camps are just breeding grounds for Palestinian revanchist fantasies and should have been integrated into the Arab states two generations ago, the way Israel incorporated 600,000 Jewish refugees from neighboring countries. The Palestinian claim of a right to "their homes" is intolerable, even for veteran Israeli peace activists like the writer Amos Oz. Jews have resisted being thrown into the sea, so should they now choose to be swamped? Does not the refugees' right of return contradict Israel's right to exist? The problem would seem intractable.


The drive to Al-Quds University should take no more than fifteen minutes from my apartment in the German Colony. It is on the next scatter of hills south of the Augusta Victoria Hospital, where Arab residents of this part of Jerusalem typically go for medical treatment. But it took almost fifty-five minutes in light traffic, since Abu Dis is now formally assigned to the territory of the Palestinian Authority and is just behind the "security fence" that snakes through Jerusalem and the West Bank. To get to Abu Dis - to find a checkpoint through the fence - we had to drive around the burgeoning Jewish suburb of Ma'ale Adumim several miles to the north. Imagine going from Wall Street to NYU via the Upper West Side. Imagine making the trip to the hospital from Abu Dis when the traffic is heavy, your identity card says you are no longer a resident of Jerusalem, the checkpoint guard got up on the wrong side of the bed, and your wife is in labor. It gives a whole new meaning to the phrase "right of return".

I finally got to the conference building - as it happens, a stone's throw from the fence and its defiant graffiti. The two featured speakers of the morning were Saeb Erekat, the intense, perennial Palestinian "chief negotiator", still close to (and bringing greetings from) Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, and Nabil Sha'ath, perhaps the most affable diplomat of the old brain trust around Yasir Arafat. Sha'ath had managed the Palestinian negotiating team on refugees at the peace summit at Taba, the Egyptian resort town on the Red Sea, in January 2001. That summit, undertaken while the Al-Aqsa intifada burned in the background, was the last time Israelis and Palestinians formally tried to come to a "final status" agreement within the framework of the 1993 Oslo Accords. At the time, Bill Clinton had just surrendered the presidency, but his bridging parameters, negotiated in Washington in December 2000 and meant to close the gap that had emerged between Ehud Barak and Arafat at the failed Camp David talks six months before, served as the agenda. Israeli negotiators had reported progress, but the summit was rushed because of an impending Israeli election, in which Barak was widely expected to take a beating from Ariel Sharon.

Erekat spoke passionately. Using Arafat's marquee phrase, he called for the "peace of the brave", the release of prisoners on both sides: "a comprehensive calm - no Palestinian missiles, no Israeli shells". He did not consider the refugees but rebuked "forces that sow division" - namely Hamas, which had accused Abbas's Fatah party of having forgotten the refugees. He acknowledged that Hamas had been democratically elected but warned the party not to bypass the PLO, the national umbrella, which Fatah still controlls.

After almost a year of Hamas trying to consolidate power in the Palestinian Authority - prompting international financial sanctions, political isolation, and so on - the PA was now stuck with tens of thousands of unpaid teachers, police, and other civil servants. Fatah was rising steadily in the polls and now seemed assured a majority in any new election. The air was buzzing with talk of a "unity" government, led by Fatah's own Abbas, and of the urgency of his meeting with Hamas's Khaled Meshal to avoid civil war. (They finally reached agreement on a unity government in Mecca on February 8, but it is not yet clear whether its terms, including a cautiously worded call to "respect" the PLO's previous agreements with Israel, will end Western sanctions. )

Whatever Sha'ath's real mission at the conference, he seemed to give encouragement to new negotiations by claiming that the past negotiations at Taba had almost succeeded and implying that Hamas was only making a bad situation worse. He did not disappoint. The refugee negotiations at Camp David got nowhere, Sha'ath said, because the Israelis had been stalling. But at Taba, he said, refugees were not shunted aside, and their troubles would have been resolved according to a number of "modalities". He roared them out in bullet form: There would be financial compensation for lost property. There would be paid relocation to the Palestinian state. There would be contributions by donor countries, and even by Israel, to that state. (One economist present cheerfully put the amount of reparations at $137 billion.) There would even be a program of limited family reunification in Israel, up to a number "acceptable to the Israeli government", say 10,000 a year over five years. Nobody could say justice of a kind was not being exacted.


When Sha'ath finished, however, the applause was merely polite. It was as if everybody had heard it all before. And, of course, we had. For these "modalities" were entirely familiar, basically identical to the principles that had been incorporated into the Geneva Initiative, a document signed by a team of Israeli and Palestinian politicians, writers (including Oz), and others, in October 2003. Geneva's organizers, Yossi Beilin, the former Israeli justice minister, and former Palestinian Authority Information Minister Yasser Abed Rabbo, had both been at Taba and wanted to complete its work. Their document amounted to a comprehensive peace deal:

There would be a Palestinian state established in the West Bank and Gaza, joined by a bridge or tunnel, and using the 1967 borders as the starting point. Land swaps (for example, from the Negev to Gaza) would allow densely populated Jewish settlements around Jerusalem and Hebron, some 150,000 people, to be annexed to Israel, but Israel would evacuate Jewish settlements on the hills around major Palestinian cities. (Of all major urban settlements, only Ariel in the north and Qiryat Arba in the south would be evacuated, since access to them required long fingers of land to jut into Palestine, making a contiguous state impossible.) Arab neighborhoods of Jerusalem, including those in the Old City, would be absorbed into the Palestinian state, with the Haram al-Sharif and its mosques coming under Palestinian sovereignty. The Jewish Quarter and the Wailing Wall would stay under Israeli sovereignty. International forces, mainly under UN auspices, would help police the Old City and the shared border. Israel would maintain a three-year security presence in the Jordan Valley, and security cooperation under US mediation would continue beyond that date.

That was the deal - that's still the deal - and Sha'ath could only restate it. The refugee problem, which was supposed to prompt new study and declarations of steadfastness, was actually resolved four years ago. The border was resolved. Jerusalem was resolved. The placement of international forces was resolved. As King Abdullah of Jordan put it recently, "You have the road map, you have Taba, you have the Geneva Accord. So, we don't have to go back to the drawing board." According to a December poll, more than half of Israelis and about half of Palestinians already accept the terms of this agreement. And Abdullah might have added that we also have the Saudi plan, adopted by the Arab League summit in March 2002, declaring that all regional states will simultaneously recognize Israel in return for the 1967 border Geneva calls for. I put the matter point-blank to Sha'ath. Had the Palestinian Authority formally accepted the terms of the Geneva Initiative? "Well, that depends who we're talking to", he told me. "If I were talking to current Israeli negotiators and I said I accepted Geneva, they would say, 'Great, let's start from there and negotiate a compromise'. If I were talking to Beilin, the attitude would be different. It would be a short negotiation."


This raises a vexing question: If the framework for a full peace has been negotiated, why are we still killing each other? The short answer is the Vendetta logic of violence itself: the Oslo process was supposed to yield, first, a period of confidence building, and second, final status talks to produce an agreement. What has actually taken place since 2000 is, first, a final status agreement, and second, the catastrophic erosion of any confidence to implement it: pro- settler provocations, suicide bombings, assassinations, missiles, shells, hollow ultimatums - and then Lebanon.

But there is a long answer, which is that nothing stands in the way of an agreement, except for a reciprocal reluctance of Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and Palestinian President Abbas, both openly committed to a two state peace such as Geneva advanced, to act boldly in the face of righteous domestic opposition. Fatah's wariness of Hamas - its shows of force and erratic exploitation of international pressure to gain the upper hand - is only one side of the equation. Olmert, too, has an opposition: several hundred thousand settlers in the West Bank and around Jerusalem, ultra-orthodox parties, Russian immigrant hawks, combat officers nervous about losing "deterrent power". He is understandably reluctant to take them on for the sake of a peace process that could at any time be subverted by either the Palestinians' weakness or their "unity".

In any case, given Olmert's impulsive performance during the Lebanon war, his political survival is hardly assured. His approval ratings hover somewhere around fifteen percent. For most of his career, Olmert has professed an attachment to Greater Israel, and everybody knows that he favored pulling out of Gaza mainly because he thought this would make it easier to unilaterally annex large parts of East Jerusalem and the West Bank.

Nevertheless, the government Olmert (or his successor) will lead until 2010 is not resisting a deal like Geneva for ideological reasons. This may be the most pragmatic government Israel has ever had, for the elites that organized this government have made a huge bet on Israel's economic globalization. They are counting on levels of growth like that of the Asian Tigers to mitigate ugly inequalities - repair a dysfunctional educational system and integrate Israel's own increasingly restive Arab minority, who make up one fifth of the country. The economy is booming at the moment, but its growth is led by hundreds of software companies, components companies, and so forth, which need to have open markets in Europe and Asia, where about half of Israel's foreign exports go. Another war, or the revival of the intifada - leading to a shunning of Israelis - will send the economy south and the elite's children west.

The great challenge is to get each side - Israel and Palestine - to trust in something without having to trust the other. What the Israeli prime minister needs is a dose of what the Palestinian president has been getting: great powers forcing the issue, bringing the sides to an endgame that leaders and majorities will accept and do not have the courage to "sow division" over. Paradoxically, the last thing Israel needs is exactly what Olmert has been asking for - the gradualism of the road map without pressure, a free hand to deal with "terror", more confidence-building measures. The only thing that will build confidence today is a clear commitment of Americans and Europeans to a definite plan like Geneva. In the absence of such a plan, Olmert and Abbas become hostages to every Islamist terrorist or hard-line Israeli officer who makes the decision to pursue "militants". Olmert must be able to say what Abbas has been compelled to say to those who oppose him: "You are alienating the world. We have to choose between our old dreams and American support. Our economy cannot survive isolation."


It need hardly be said that the Bush Administration, friends to the end, do not subscribe to this view. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice has spoken vaguely of bilateral negotiations moving to a "political horizon". She is reportedly looking again at Geneva. But how to get from talk about process to talk about a deal? Rice, like her boss, seems to believe mostly in evil people being beaten into joining, or in an ownership diplomacy in which the US speaks best by speaking least. As I write, she has left Jerusalem after an inconclusive Olmert-Abbas summit. "The real value here was that they sat down to talk with each other", Rice said. In January, however, newspapers reported that informal (and, by all accounts, productive) negotiations between Israelis and Syrians had been curtailed due to administration disapproval. States that abet terror must stand in the corner.

But as we approach the US primary season, the world-famous fatuousness of the Bush Administration is not the only danger. What "electable" Democratic presidential candidate in 2004 even raised the question of West Bank settlements? American Jews are more dependable contributors to the Democratic Party than almost any other "demographic", and elections are still fought largely by brand managers. What consultant will allow a candidate to prejudge the outcome of Israel's negotiations or limit Israel's freedom of action? Will Barack Obama risk stories about Jews in New York or Los Angeles questioning his friendliness to Israel? Will Hillary Clinton risk endorsing "bridging parameters" that carry her own name? Think of the reaction to Jimmy Carter's recent book.

Clinton's statements on the matter are especially unsatisfying, given how far her husband took the negotiation process in 2000. If she endorsed his proposals, which yielded the Geneva Initiative, she'd liberate the Democratic field to do the same. Instead, she told the Council on Foreign Relations in October 2006 that there is "no reliable partner on the Palestinian side", that progress depends on Hamas recognizing Israel, which America must remain in "close coordination with" - in all, a policy as cunningly opaque as the circles around Richard Perle's eyes. The point is, the road map leads, if anywhere, to Geneva. With no American driver, the wars continue. Do we need new refugees to tell us where that leads?

_____

Bernard Avishai is a consulting editor of the Harvard Business Review and the author of The Tragedy of Zionism (Allworth Press, 2002). His last article for Harper's Magazine, "Saving Israel from Itself", appeared in the January 2005 issue.


Bill Totten http://www.ashisuto.co.jp/english/index.html

Saturday, April 21, 2007

Zowie

by Jim Kunstler

www.kunstler.com (March 26 2007)


For all of you out there disposed to twang on me for riding a jet airplane all the way to Maui, please consider that United flight 35 would have flown from San Francisco to Maui with or without me on it. Here's the deal: I had to go to San Fran to give a talk at the Commonwealth Club. From there, I had a lecture gig on Maui. I stayed three extra days and nights - since I'd come all that way. So, sue me. Now, to the business at hand, which is my impressions of Maui.

Beautiful as much of it may be, it is hard not to view it through a tragic lens. Most of the damage on Maui has been inflicted over the past 30-odd years - that is, since the Pepsi Generation got their mitts on the island. Certainly, there were massive prior insults, starting with the first landings of the Haole (foreigners, in particular caucasians) in the late 18th century, the introduction of cattle, eucalyptus trees, the mongoose, the monoculture of sugar cane, and other intrusions that upset the island's ecology. But the boomer-hippies really iced it.

Those who managed to stop smoking marijuana long enough to string two consecutive thoughts together grokked the related notions of tropical paradise and land development with predictable results. That is, they turned the place into just an annex of California. The flatlands were allowed to develop along the lines of Fresno or Lodi, while the uplands became Pacific Palisades Lite. The longest stretch of the best beaches in the place with the least rainfall was converted into a strip of jive-plastic supersized resort hotels. The automobile was given first dibs in all civic design matters.

The island's beauty has not been entirely defeated, but the usual complaints are heard for the usual reasons - mainly, that the overwhelming majority of buildings, both residential and commercial (including the big hotels), are graceless industrial sheds, deployed artlessly on over-engineered streets, which has conditioned the public to believe that all man-made things are worthless pieces of shit. This in turn conditions the public to believe that nothing man-made can be ultimately beneficial, which makes it impossible for us to imagine coexistence with the rest of nature, and so on into the usual swamps of suburban dialectic.

The terrain, of course, has largely determined the situation with the car. Maui is mostly composed of two rugged mountains, and cars have made it possible for people other than farmers to settle the slopes. Without motor vehicles, a person living up in Makawao, maybe two or three thousand feet above sea level, would be lucky to get down to the main trading town once a month, let alone to a job every day. But work-a-day Maui operates just like work-a-day California, and all the associated norms of behavior are in place. You drive everywhere for everything.

As far as I could tell, even the educated locals out in Maui today are consumed with the same trivialities about traffic and "density" that you'd hear back in any mainland town. They are not thinking beyond the usual NIMBY issues. But it seems perfectly obvious that Maui life will change drastically in a future of oil-and-gas scarcity. The commercial airlines are the "canaries in the coal mine" of advanced industrial civilization, and they are very sick canaries right now - even with the price of oil relatively stable the past six months.

The airlines have pared down their employee ranks about as far as possible. The scene at the Maui airport this Sunday was a clusterfuck - largely due to the fact that United Airlines had only one person manning the ticket counter, and 98 percent of the visitors have to check through luggage. A couple more rounds of oil price spikes and the airlines are going to be lying tits up with glazed eyes. Perhaps aviation will then reorganize itself on a smaller scale serving only the elite, for a while, anyway. In any case, that will be the end of the mass middle class consumer phase of commercial aviation - and also of mass middle class type tourism.

Few people on Maui I spoke to were mentally prepared for the implications of this. But it's perfectly obvious that the Hawaiian Islands will become much more isolated again, and that the way of life that has developed there since 1970 will have to change drastically. I'm glad I went. I don't know if I'll ever go back. Beautiful as it was, I got tired of being in the car all the time and there was really no place to walk.

http://www.kunstler.com/mags_diary20.html


Bill Totten http://www.ashisuto.co.jp/english/index.html

A Rational Perspective on Our Present Crises

by Gabriel Kolko

ZNet Commentary (April 07 2007)


It is understandable that intelligent people should be preoccupied with the crises reported in the daily press, but they are best comprehended in their historical context. That context, and the crucial causes and motives guiding American foreign policy since 1950, are crucial to understanding the often bewildering and multidimensional events since the year 2000. George W Bush and his cronies have done incalculable damage and committed terrible follies, but it is a fundamental error to assume that he is somehow original and the genesis of our present crisis.

It is much riskier to focus on particulars as if they have no precedents or are not part of an older, longer historical pattern. Indeed, a major fault of many assessments of US actions abroad is precisely such a disregard for the circumstances that led to them and their historical framework.

The world has changed with increasing speed over the last half-century, and there have been more wars and upheavals over the past decade than any time since 1945. Given the weaponry now available and the growing political and diplomatic instability that has accompanied the demise of Communism, this is the most dangerous period in mankind's entire history. It is also the period of greatest changes in the balance of world forces, with the decentralization of not only powerful weapons but the reemergence of nationalist, ethnic, and religious factors. The breakup of the USSR and Communism was only partially the cause.

How global military, political, economic and other variables interact is very often unpredictable, to which one must add the domestic politics and public moods within crucial nations - of which the US is most important. World affairs are not only complex but also full of surprises - not only for us but also for those in Washington and elsewhere who aspire to control the destiny of humanity.

Contradictions and errors have been the principal characteristic of all ambitious nations, leading to wars that are not only far bloodier and longer than anticipated but also produce such unwanted political and social consequences as revolution or its opposite, reaction. The emergence of communism and fascism, and the sequence of wars over the past century, was merely confirmation of the fact that once fighting begins, human values and institutions - all the forces that create social stability - go awry.

George W Bush inherited conventional wisdom regarding the world mission and universal interests that guide American policies on the world scene. The same ambitions have often been shared by leaders of other powers who believe that wars serve as effective, controllable instruments of national goals. What Bush did do, however, was intensify the most dangerous traits always inherent in American institutions and beliefs since 1945. He scarcely expected to get bogged down in the affairs of the Middle East, making Iran the strategically most important power in the entire region. Still less did he imagine that America's war would rip apart the existing fragile political arrangements and boundaries so that the specter of civil wars and bloodshed along sectarian and ethnic lines in the entire Middle East that may last for years to come. President John F Kennedy and his successors earlier had also expected that their involvement in Vietnam would be limited and short.

But once the shooting begins - and America's "credibility" is at stake - priorities are decided for it where there is combat. Moreover, what is crucial is that its pretensions and ambitions have often led to very different parts of the globe - and the US often loses control over the military and political results of its many interventions. The world has always been very large and very complex, and it is becoming more so; the US may eventually adjust to that reality. But it has refused to do so in the past as well as the present.

Both Presidents George H W Bush - the incumbent president's father - and Bill Clinton radically altered the justifications for the United States' global foreign policy after Communism disappeared. The second Bush claims there is "a decisive ideological struggle" against Islamic fundamentalism and "terrorism", and it is the main rationale for wars the US is now fighting in Afghanistan, Iraq, and may perhaps also fight elsewhere. But his predecessors concocted variations of these themes based on fear and anxiety in large part to justify massive military spending after the demise of the USSR, and the US' "preemptive" interventions have been a rationale for American interventions for many decades.

Yet while an alleged Islamic threat took Communism's place throughout the 1990s, it did so in an often contrived fashion that made exceptions for America's important alliances with Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and other orthodox Muslim states. But Islam has existed for centuries, it has changed very little if at all, and the US often utilized fundamentalist religion in Iran, Afghanistan, and elsewhere after 1950 as an antidote to fight godless Communism. What was crucial was that the US needed a threat and alleged danger to legitimize to its own population its global role and readiness to intervene everywhere. This justification causes it to spend almost as much on its military machine as the entire rest of the world combined.

We must never forget that the origins of most of the world's problems go back many centuries and involve religion, boundaries, demography, nationalism - the list of causes of war and human misery is very long. The United States has scarcely been the cause of most of them. But even granted that international politics has been violent and quite irrational far, far longer, after the Second World War the American role was decisive in most places on the globe. Had Washington behaved differently after 1945 then many of today's international crises would be very different also. In short, the "American problem" after the Second World War became synonymous with the world's problem; virtually everything important involving change is now contingent on it.

The US since 1945 has poured fuel on the fire of atavism and irrationality, and it has blocked efforts to solve the domestic problems of countless nations in ways that were often quite sensible and equitable. It is worth contemplating what might have happened had it minded its own affairs and avoided making matters - good, bad, or neither - far worse, but especially preventing needed social and economic reforms. I have devoted one book to its interventions in the Third World alone, another on the Vietnam War, and dealt with yet many other cases elsewhere. There are also innumerable excellent detailed works that go much further.

The Middle East is currently the leading crisis facing the US and the world. President Woodrow Wilson predicted in 1919 that if the peace made after the war were not just "there will follow not mere conflict but cataclysm". The territorial settlements imposed on the Middle East after 1918 were entirely capricious, unjust, and arranged by the great powers with scant regard for local conditions or desires. An astonishing ignorance prevailed among most of the crucial decision-makers, not just the Americans. The reemergence of Islamic ideologies, the rise of secular nationalism in the region, Zionism and the seemingly intractable Arab-Jewish conflict, and much else is a result, to a crucial extent, of the role of outside foreign intervention.

The Second World War was further vindication of Wilson's fears, and today we are experiencing the irrationality of the settlements that followed the First World War in the Middle East. The vast region's nations and borders were created arbitrarily; in no area was the potential for chaos - the contested boundaries, the creation of a Jewish homeland, and much else - greater than this inherently volatile region. For there are no "natural" nations and boundaries in the Middle East and by attacking Iraq the US has reopened a potential for chaos and disorder in the entire vast region which surpasses, by far, both in size and economic importance the potential for instability which existed in Indochina, Brazil, or anyplace else where it mucked around. For while there were plenty of illusions in many other areas, in fact the turmoil the US is now creating in the Middle East is unprecedented. It could have been far different had the US not tried to control the fate of this region at all.

Communism is all but dead but the world's sufferings have, if anything, increased with the disappearance of what was the justification for the Cold War. The resources that the US and mankind might have devoted to making peace and meeting rational human needs and desires have instead gone to preparing for and making war. Today we confront the indefinite prospect of war and human suffering on a vast scale - but this has also been the case for at least the past half-century.


http://www.zmag.org/sustainers/content/2007-04/07kolko.cfm


Bill Totten http://www.ashisuto.co.jp/english/index.html

Friday, April 20, 2007

Blowing Green Smoke

Clusterfuck Nation by Jim Kunstler

Comment on current events by the author of The Long Emergency {1}

www.kunstler.com (April 16 2007)


Tom Friedman, celebrated New York Times columnist and author of The World is Flat {2}, riffed on (or around) the issues of climate change and energy in that newspaper's Sunday Magazine this week {3}, and managed, in the process, to misunderstand just about every implication these conjoined problems present. Friedman's specious thinking is symptomatic of exactly what is wrong with our public discussion of these matters generally, and their presentation in mainstream media in particular.

I'm fond of saying that if America could harness the power it wastes blowing smoke up its own ass, we could magically escape our energy-and-climate-change predicament. I say this repeatedly to counter the increasing volume of lies we tell ourselves in order to maintain the illusion that we can continue living the way we do. Like so many other commentators suffering from cranial-rectosis, Friedman believes that we can keep on running our Happy Motoring utopia if we just switch fuels.

Friedman gives no indication that he understands the fundamentals of the global oil situation. He writes:

"People change when they have to - not when we tell them - and falling oil prices make them have to. That is why if we are looking for a Plan B for Iraq - a way of pressing for political reform in the Middle East without going to war again - there is no better tool than bringing down the price of oil."


This is a fascinating statement. It's predicated on the idea that the US can achieve "energy independence", which is itself predicated on the further idea that we can accomplish this by switching out gasoline for ethanol. This is such an elementary error in thinking that it would be funny if it wasn't the lead story in the flagship of the mainstream media. As a Pennsylvania farmer put it to me in February: "It looks like we're going to burn up the last remaining six inches of Midwest topsoil in our gas-tanks". Friedman's statement also ignores the facts that running cars on ethanol would make no material difference in the amount of carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere, or that ethanol is twenty percent less efficient than gasoline, meaning we would have to produce and use that much more of the stuff just to stay where we are.

Where climate change is concerned, this is a variation of the "Red Queen syndrome" (from Alice in Wonderland) in which one has to run faster and faster to stay in place. It also fails to take into account the tragic ramifications of setting up competition between food for humans and crops for motor fuels just at the point when a growing scarcity of oil-and-gas-based soil "inputs" (as well increasing climate problems in the grain belt) will drastically lower American crop yields. The symptoms of this unintended consequence have already begun to present themselves - for instance, January's food riots in Mexico, which resulted from Mexican corn being sold to American ethanol distillers rather than Mexican cornmeal millers, who couldn't match their bids.

Friedman goes on to tout Wal-Mart's mendacious campaign to "green" up its operations by, among other things, improving the mileage of its truck fleet from six miles per gallon to twelve miles per gallon. He writes:

"Take Wal-Mart. The world's biggest retailer woke up several years ago, its CEO Lee Scott told me, and realized with regard to the environment its customers 'had higher expectations for us than we had for ourselves'. So Scott hired a sustainability expert, Jib Ellison, to tutor his company. The first lesson Ellison preached was that going green was a whole new way for Wal-Mart to cut costs and drive its profits."


The smoke Mr Scott blew up Friedman's ass is leaking out of the columnist's pie-hole here. I've been to dozens of permitting battles over Wal-Mart in the planning boards of America, writing on suburban sprawl, and I can assure you that the the pro Wal-Mart factions in these fights uniformly couldn't give a fuck about anything except saving five bucks on a plastic salad shooter ("we want bargain shopping!!!"). Not to put too fine a point on it, but these are precisely the members of the American public who sold their own local economies down the river, who led their towns into destitution, and who believe with all their hearts that it is possible to get something for nothing (which is why this large cohort of citizens spends so much of its meager income on lottery tickets, trips to Las Vegas, and gets suckered into ruinous "miracle" mortgages).

Friedman's invocation of Wal-Mart here offers another layer of misunderstanding from the work he is best-known for, his best-selling book, The World is Flat, which asserts that globalism is now a permanent feature of the human condition. I demur from this view. I think we will discover (probably painfully) that globalism was a set of transient economic relations made possible by a half century of cheap oil and relative peace between the great powers, and that enterprises that rely on these transient mechanisms - such Wal-Mart, with its 12,000-mile merchandise supply chain to China, and its "warehouse on wheels" of tractor-trailor trucks circulating incessantly on America's interstate highways - will be on their knees in a few years as we enter the export crisis phase of post-peak terminal oil depletion and the great powers of the world act with increasing desperation to compete over the remaining supplies.

For someone operating at the top of journalism's food chain, Friedman is astoundingly ignorant. He asserts at another point in this article that climate change will require us to "[r]eplace 1,400 large coal-fired plants with gas-fired plants". Earth to Tom: America's natural gas supply is arguably more tenuous and problematic than its oil supply. To put it bluntly, over the next five years, we will fall off a cliff with natural gas. Apparently Friedman hasn't heard. Nor are we going to make up for this loss by importing liquid natural gas from distant lands. Nor would it make any sense to burn expensive imported methane gas to run power generation turbines. So, you see, there is no chance whatsoever that we will do what Friedman suggests. In fact, the seventeen percent of all electric power that we currently get from gas will be lost to us in the near future, which could leave us with Third World style electric service. (Incidentally, the terminal decline of our natural gas supply also means we will lose control of the crucial resource used for making nitrogenous fertilizers, with self-evident further implications for our crop yields and our ability to feed ourselves or manufacture alternative motor fuels.)

Friedman's equations regarding continued industrial expansion in China and India are based on the assumption that they somehow will be immune to the global energy crisis and to the ecological catastrophes entailed by climate change. More likely: both nations will be overwhelmed by these things and the only question will be how desperate their political convulsions will be in response (or how rapidly they devolve back to twelfth century living standards).

At the heart of Friedman's thesis is his notion that the current incarnation of "the American Dream" is a good thing and can continue. By American Dream he apparently means membership in the Happy Motoring Utopia, with all its accessories, furnishings, and usufructs - the system broadly known as suburban sprawl. Here's the truth, Tom: suburban sprawl is a living arrangement with no future. It was a tragic mistake to squander the post World War Two wealth of our society to build it. It will come to represent an immense liability for this country's future, as it loses both monetary and practical value. And we will have to make comprehensive arrangements for living differently, if we want to continue this project of American civilization.

A telling omission in this article, by the way, is any mention of public transit. It's especially significant because the one thing we really could do right away to reduce our oil consumption would be to get passenger rail going again in this country. But this blind spot in Friedman's vision is only the flip side to his stupid belief that we can just keep all the cars running by other means.

Tom Friedman has no idea what the implications are of all these things. His fatuous advice to the nation - served up by a confused and cowardly Times editorial staff - will only spur more delusional thinking, which is, of course, the last thing we need. The showcasing of Friedman's article may represent an inflection point in the fate of the mainstream media - the moment when it demonstrates most clearly its failure to make current events comprehensible, the moment when its lost legitimacy is finally recognized. That legitimacy has been passing to the Internet, where commentators have no advertisers to pander to and no need to defend any status quo.


Notes:

{1} http://www.powells.com/biblio/1-9780802142498-0

{2} http://www.powells.com/biblio/17-9780374292881-0

{3} "The Power of Green" http://www.kunstler.com/Grunt_Friedman_green.html


http://jameshowardkunstler.typepad.com/



Bill Totten http://www.ashisuto.co.jp/english/index.html

Thursday, April 19, 2007

Spring Break

by Jim Kunstler

Clusterfuck Nation (April 09 2007)

Comment on current events by the author of "The Long Emergency" (also on www.kunstler.com)



Last week, I was in Illinois walking the majestic Beaux Arts-vintage main quad of the State U in Champaign-Urbana. The flowering trees were in full bloom, the grass was green and speckled with dandelions, and the leaves on the privet hedges were unfurling. Then I came home to upstate New York where everything is brown, gray, and dead-looking, and humps of snow still remain on the north side of every building. I called the heating oil man to get 100 gallons because our tank was close to running on fumes and the daily high temperature lingered in the thirties.

This is the flip side of the abnormally warm early winter we had. The jet stream, for whatever reason, has pulled a flag of frigid air over the northeast US, the region which proportionately uses the most oil for home heating, as opposed to natural gas. The weather forecast says they see frigid days and nights as far ahead as they dare to look.

Gasoline use typically shoots up around this time of year as spring breakers hit the road. Meanwhile, US Department of Energy's EIA reports that US refinery inputs are 115,000 barrels a day short of their fifteen million barrels a day "threshold" (which I take to mean their required capacity to keep things humming), while imported gasoline supplies (we get some of that, too) also fell short. The EIA's monthly report concludes: "... consequently, as gasoline demand began to grow in earnest in April, gasoline supply has failed to keep pace, resulting in continued significant stock declines and sharp upward pressure on gasoline prices in recent weeks". Gasoline prices are now 11.9 cents per gallon higher than at this time last year.

The EIA has to be more reality-based about current activity than their future projections, because the current import-export and refinery figures are out there for other people and other data-gathering organizations to see. The EIA's future projections are a joke. They are based on the fantasy that everything will be okay despite what we see happening now. The EIA projects that all the world's oil producers will increase their oil production hugely by 2030. They see Saudi Arabia shooting up to 17.1 million barrels a day when, in fact, Saudi production fell seven percent just over the past year alone to 8.4 million barrels a day. They see Mexico shooting way up, despite the announcement last year by Pemex that the Cantarell field (sixty percent of Mexico's total production) is crashing at a minimum rate of fifteen percent a year. They see Russia zooming way up, despite the fact that Russia is probably past the seventy percent mark of its original total reserves. If you go to this EIA chart, you'll see practically everybody's production shooting way up in the decades ahead, even the US, which, in reality, has seen nothing but steady annual decline for more than thirty years (we produce half now of what we did in 1970). http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/pdf/ieooil.pdf

The EIA is a perfect reflection of the public it serves. It appears to conduct daily business in a responsible way while it resolutely refuses to face the obvious realities of the future. My own town is a good example of non-reality-based planning. Our mayor announced last week that we are going to construct a 1500-space parking structure to go along with an expansion of our minor-league convention center, all based on money raised through bonds. I can't imagine a worse investment. The last thing this town will see in the years ahead is an increase in motor-oriented tourism. And the last thing that business organizations will spend their money on in a future of energy scarcity and diminished revenues will be trade shows.

The price of gasoline seems to be the only signal that the American public receives on its collective walkie-talkie. It looks to me as though gasoline prices will head close to the $4-a-gallon range in some parts of the country this summer. When that happens, the US government, as represented by the DOE's reporting agency (EIA) will not have a coherent story for the public. I imagine as this occurs, the new Democratic-controlled congress will call for hearings to investigate US oil companies. They'll haul in the executives from Exxon-Mobil and the rest of the bunch and threaten them with a punishing windfall profits tax. I wonder if the oil company chieftains will tell the politicians the truth: that peak oil is for real and it's here.

http://jameshowardkunstler.typepad.com/


Bill Totten http://www.ashisuto.co.jp/english/index.html

What If Iran Had Invaded Mexico?

Putting the Iran crisis in context

by Noam Chomsky

MotherJones.com (April 05 2007)

This article originally appeared on TomDispatch.com.


Unsurprisingly, George W Bush's announcement of a "surge" in Iraq came despite the firm opposition to any such move of Americans and the even stronger opposition of the (thoroughly irrelevant) Iraqis. It was accompanied by ominous official leaks and statements - from Washington and Baghdad - about how Iranian intervention in Iraq was aimed at disrupting our mission to gain victory, an aim which is (by definition) noble. What then followed was a solemn debate about whether serial numbers on advanced roadside bombs (IEDs) were really traceable to Iran; and, if so, to that country's Revolutionary Guards or to some even higher authority.

This "debate" is a typical illustration of a primary principle of sophisticated propaganda. In crude and brutal societies, the Party Line is publicly proclaimed and must be obeyed - or else. What you actually believe is your own business and of far less concern. In societies where the state has lost the capacity to control by force, the Party Line is simply presupposed; then, vigorous debate is encouraged within the limits imposed by unstated doctrinal orthodoxy. The cruder of the two systems leads, naturally enough, to disbelief; the sophisticated variant gives an impression of openness and freedom, and so far more effectively serves to instill the Party Line. It becomes beyond question, beyond thought itself, like the air we breathe.

The debate over Iranian interference in Iraq proceeds without ridicule on the assumption that the United States owns the world. We did not, for example, engage in a similar debate in the 1980s about whether the US was interfering in Soviet-occupied Afghanistan, and I doubt that Pravda, probably recognizing the absurdity of the situation, sank to outrage about that fact (which American officials and our media, in any case, made no effort to conceal). Perhaps the official Nazi press also featured solemn debates about whether the Allies were interfering in sovereign Vichy France, though if so, sane people would then have collapsed in ridicule.

In this case, however, even ridicule - notably absent - would not suffice, because the charges against Iran are part of a drumbeat of pronouncements meant to mobilize support for escalation in Iraq and for an attack on Iran, the "source of the problem". The world is aghast at the possibility. Even in neighboring Sunni states, no friends of Iran, majorities, when asked, favor a nuclear-armed Iran over any military action against that country. From what limited information we have, it appears that significant parts of the US military and intelligence communities are opposed to such an attack, along with almost the entire world, even more so than when the Bush administration and Tony Blair's Britain invaded Iraq, defying enormous popular opposition worldwide.


"The Iran Effect"

The results of an attack on Iran could be horrendous. After all, according to a recent study of "the Iraq effect" by terrorism specialists Peter Bergen and Paul Cruickshank, using government and Rand Corporation data, the Iraq invasion has already led to a seven-fold increase in terror. The "Iran effect" would probably be far more severe and long-lasting. British military historian Corelli Barnett speaks for many when he warns that "an attack on Iran would effectively launch World War III".

What are the plans of the increasingly desperate clique that narrowly holds political power in the US? We cannot know. Such state planning is, of course, kept secret in the interests of "security". Review of the declassified record reveals that there is considerable merit in that claim - though only if we understand "security" to mean the security of the Bush administration against their domestic enemy, the population in whose name they act.

Even if the White House clique is not planning war, naval deployments, support for secessionist movements and acts of terror within Iran, and other provocations could easily lead to an accidental war. Congressional resolutions would not provide much of a barrier. They invariably permit "national security" exemptions, opening holes wide enough for the several aircraft-carrier battle groups soon to be in the Persian Gulf to pass through - as long as an unscrupulous leadership issues proclamations of doom (as Condoleezza Rice did with those "mushroom clouds" over American cities back in 2002). And the concocting of the sorts of incidents that "justify" such attacks is a familiar practice. Even the worst monsters feel the need for such justification and adopt the device: Hitler's defense of innocent Germany from the "wild terror" of the Poles in 1939, after they had rejected his wise and generous proposals for peace, is but one example.

The most effective barrier to a White House decision to launch a war is the kind of organized popular opposition that frightened the political-military leadership enough in 1968 that they were reluctant to send more troops to Vietnam - fearing, we learned from the Pentagon Papers, that they might need them for civil-disorder control.

Doubtless Iran's government merits harsh condemnation, including for its recent actions that have inflamed the crisis. It is, however, useful to ask how we would act if Iran had invaded and occupied Canada and Mexico and was arresting US government representatives there on the grounds that they were resisting the Iranian occupation (called "liberation", of course). Imagine as well that Iran was deploying massive naval forces in the Caribbean and issuing credible threats to launch a wave of attacks against a vast range of sites - nuclear and otherwise - in the United States, if the US government did not immediately terminate all its nuclear energy programs (and, naturally, dismantle all its nuclear weapons). Suppose that all of this happened after Iran had overthrown the government of the US and installed a vicious tyrant (as the US did to Iran in 1953), then later supported a Russian invasion of the US that killed millions of people (just as the US supported Saddam Hussein's invasion of Iran in 1980, killing hundreds of thousands of Iranians, a figure comparable to millions of Americans). Would we watch quietly?

It is easy to understand an observation by one of Israel's leading military historians, Martin van Creveld. After the US invaded Iraq, knowing it to be defenseless, he noted, "Had the Iranians not tried to build nuclear weapons, they would be crazy".

Surely no sane person wants Iran (or any nation) to develop nuclear weapons. A reasonable resolution of the present crisis would permit Iran to develop nuclear energy, in accord with its rights under the Non-Proliferation Treaty, but not nuclear weapons. Is that outcome feasible? It would be, given one condition: that the US and Iran were functioning democratic societies in which public opinion had a significant impact on public policy.

As it happens, this solution has overwhelming support among Iranians and Americans, who generally are in agreement on nuclear issues. The Iranian-American consensus includes the complete elimination of nuclear weapons everywhere (82% of Americans); if that cannot yet be achieved because of elite opposition, then at least a "nuclear-weapons-free zone in the Middle East that would include both Islamic countries and Israel" (71% of Americans). Seventy-five percent of Americans prefer building better relations with Iran to threats of force. In brief, if public opinion were to have a significant influence on state policy in the US and Iran, resolution of the crisis might be at hand, along with much more far-reaching solutions to the global nuclear conundrum.


Promoting Democracy - at Home

These facts suggest a possible way to prevent the current crisis from exploding, perhaps even into some version of World War III. That awesome threat might be averted by pursuing a familiar proposal: democracy promotion - this time at home, where it is badly needed. Democracy promotion at home is certainly feasible and, although we cannot carry out such a project directly in Iran, we could act to improve the prospects of the courageous reformers and oppositionists who are seeking to achieve just that. Among such figures who are, or should be, well-known, would be Saeed Hajjarian, Nobel laureate Shirin Ebadi, and Akbar Ganji, as well as those who, as usual, remain nameless, among them labor activists about whom we hear very little; those who publish the Iranian Workers Bulletin may be a case in point.

We can best improve the prospects for democracy promotion in Iran by sharply reversing state policy here so that it reflects popular opinion. That would entail ceasing to make the regular threats that are a gift to Iranian hardliners. These are bitterly condemned by Iranians truly concerned with democracy promotion (unlike those "supporters" who flaunt democracy slogans in the West and are lauded as grand "idealists" despite their clear record of visceral hatred for democracy).

Democracy promotion in the United States could have far broader consequences. In Iraq, for instance, a firm timetable for withdrawal would be initiated at once, or very soon, in accord with the will of the overwhelming majority of Iraqis and a significant majority of Americans. Federal budget priorities would be virtually reversed. Where spending is rising, as in military supplemental bills to conduct the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, it would sharply decline. Where spending is steady or declining (health, education, job training, the promotion of energy conservation and renewable energy sources, veterans benefits, funding for the UN and UN peacekeeping operations, and so on), it would sharply increase. Bush's tax cuts for people with incomes over $200,000 a year would be immediately rescinded.

The US would have adopted a national health-care system long ago, rejecting the privatized system that sports twice the per-capita costs found in similar societies and some of the worst outcomes in the industrial world. It would have rejected what is widely regarded by those who pay attention as a "fiscal train wreck" in-the-making. The US would have ratified the Kyoto Protocol to reduce carbon-dioxide emissions and undertaken still stronger measures to protect the environment. It would allow the UN to take the lead in international crises, including in Iraq. After all, according to opinion polls, since shortly after the 2003 invasion, a large majority of Americans have wanted the UN to take charge of political transformation, economic reconstruction, and civil order in that land.

If public opinion mattered, the US would accept UN Charter restrictions on the use of force, contrary to a bipartisan consensus that this country, alone, has the right to resort to violence in response to potential threats, real or imagined, including threats to our access to markets and resources. The US (along with others) would abandon the Security Council veto and accept majority opinion even when in opposition to it. The UN would be allowed to regulate arms sales; while the US would cut back on such sales and urge other countries to do so, which would be a major contribution to reducing large-scale violence in the world. Terror would be dealt with through diplomatic and economic measures, not force, in accord with the judgment of most specialists on the topic but again in diametric opposition to present-day policy.

Furthermore, if public opinion influenced policy, the US would have diplomatic relations with Cuba, benefiting the people of both countries (and, incidentally, US agribusiness, energy corporations, and others), instead of standing virtually alone in the world in imposing an embargo (joined only by Israel, the Republic of Palau, and the Marshall Islands). Washington would join the broad international consensus on a two-state settlement of the Israel-Palestine conflict, which (with Israel) it has blocked for thirty years - with scattered and temporary exceptions - and which it still blocks in word, and more importantly in deed, despite fraudulent claims of its commitment to diplomacy. The US would also equalize aid to Israel and Palestine, cutting off aid to either party that rejected the international consensus.

Evidence on these matters is reviewed in my book Failed States (Metropolitan Books, 2006) as well as in The Foreign Policy Disconnect (University of Chicago Press, 2006) by Benjamin Page (with Marshall Bouton), which also provides extensive evidence that public opinion on foreign (and probably domestic) policy issues tends to be coherent and consistent over long periods. Studies of public opinion have to be regarded with caution, but they are certainly highly suggestive.

Democracy promotion at home, while no panacea, would be a useful step towards helping our own country become a "responsible stakeholder" in the international order (to adopt the term used for adversaries), instead of being an object of fear and dislike throughout much of the world. Apart from being a value in itself, functioning democracy at home holds real promise for dealing constructively with many current problems, international and domestic, including those that literally threaten the survival of our species.

_____

Noam Chomsky is the author of Failed States: The Abuse of Power and the Assault on Democracy (Metropolitan Books, 2006), just published in paperback, among many other works.

Copyright 2007 Noam Chomsky

_____

This article has been made possible by the Foundation for National Progress, the Investigative Fund of Mother Jones, and gifts from generous readers like you.

(c) 2007 The Foundation for National Progress


http://www.motherjones.com/commentary/tomdispatch/chomsky_iran.html


Bill Totten http://www.ashisuto.co.jp/english/index.html

Wednesday, April 18, 2007

The Real Climate Censorship

It's happening, it's systematic, and it is precisely the opposite story to the one the papers are telling.

by George Monbiot

Published in the Guardian (April 10 2007)


The drafting of reports by the world's pre-eminent group of climate scientists is an odd process. For many months scientists contributing to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change tussle over the evidence. Nothing gets published unless it achieves consensus. This means that the panel's reports are extremely conservative - even timid. It also means that they are as trustworthy as a scientific document can be.

Then, when all is settled among the scientists, the politicians sweep in and seek to excise from the summaries anything which threatens their interests. While the US government has traditionally been the scientists' chief opponent, this time the assault was led by Saudi Arabia, supported by China and Russia {1,2}.

The scientists fight back, but they always have to make some concessions. The report released on Friday, for example, was shorn of the warning that "North America is expected to experience locally severe economic damage, plus substantial ecosystem, social and cultural disruption from climate change related events" {3}. David Wasdell, an accredited reviewer for the panel, claims that the summary of the science the IPCC published in February was purged of most of its references to "positive feedbacks": climate change accelerating itself {4}.

This is the opposite of the story endlessly repeated in the right-wing press: that the IPCC, in collusion with governments, is conspiring to exaggerate the science. No one explains why governments should seek to amplify their own failures. In the wacky world of the climate conspiracists, no explanations are required. The world's most conservative scientific body has somehow been transformed into a cabal of screaming demagogues.

This is just one aspect of a story which is endlessly told the wrong way around. In the Sunday Telegraph, the Daily Mail, in columns by Dominic Lawson, Tom Utley and Janet Daley the allegation is constantly repeated that climate scientists and environmentalists are trying to "shut down debate". Those who say that manmade global warming is not taking place, they claim, are being censored.

Something is missing from their accusations: a single valid example. The closest any of them have been able to get is two letters sent - by the Royal Society and by the US senators Jay Rockefeller and Olympia Snowe - to that delicate flower ExxonMobil, asking that it cease funding lobbyists who deliberately distort climate science {5,6}. These correspondents had no power to enforce their wishes. They were merely urging Exxon to change its practices. If everyone who urges is a censor, then the comment pages of the newspapers must be closed in the name of free speech.

In an interview four weeks ago, Martin Durkin, who made Channel 4's film The Great Global Warming Swindle, claimed that he was subject to "invisible censorship" {7}. He appears to have forgotten that he had just been given ninety minutes of prime time television to expound his theory that climate change is a great green conspiracy. So what did this censorship amount to? Complaints about one of his programmes had been upheld by the Independent Television Commission. It found that "the views of the four complainants, as made clear to the interviewer, had been distorted by selective editing" and that they had been "misled as to the content and purpose of the programmes when they agreed to take part". {8} This, apparently, makes him a martyr.

If you want to know what real censorship looks like, let me show you what has been happening on the other side of the fence. Scientists whose research demonstrates that climate change is taking place have been repeatedly threatened and silenced and their findings edited or suppressed.

The Union of Concerned Scientists found that 58% of the 279 climate scientists working at federal agencies in the US who responded to its survey reported that they had experienced one of the following constraints. 1. "Pressure to eliminate the words 'climate change', 'global warming', or other similar terms" from their communications. 2. Editing of scientific reports by their superiors which "changed the meaning of scientific findings". 3. Statements by officials at their agencies which misrepresented their findings. 4. "The disappearance or unusual delay of websites, reports, or other science-based materials relating to climate". 5. "New or unusual administrative requirements that impair climate-related work". 6. "Situations in which scientists have actively objected to, resigned from, or removed themselves from a project because of pressure to change scientific findings". They reported 435 incidents of political interference over the past five years {9}.

In 2003, the White House gutted the climate change section of a report by the Environmental Protection Agency {10}. It deleted references to studies showing that global warming is caused by manmade emissions. It added a reference to a study partly funded by the American Petroleum Institute, which suggested that temperatures are not rising. Eventually the agency decided to drop the section altogether.

After Thomas Knutson at the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration {NOAA} published a paper in 2004 linking rising emissions with more intense tropical cyclones, he was blocked by his superiors from speaking to the media. He agreed to one request to appear on MSNBC, but a public affairs officer at NOAA rang the station to tell the programme that Knutson was "too tired" to conduct the interview. The official explained to him that the "White House said no". All media inquiries were to be routed instead to a scientist who believed there was no connection between global warming and hurricanes {11}.

Last year the top climate scientist at NASA, James Hansen, reported that his bosses were trying to censor his lectures, papers and web postings. He was told by public relations officials at the agency that there would be "dire consequences" if he continued to call for rapid reductions in greenhouse gases {12}.

Last month, the Alaskan branch of the US Fish and Wildlife Service told its scientists that anyone travelling to the Arctic must understand "the administration's position on climate change, polar bears, and sea ice and will not be speaking on or responding to these issues". {13}

At hearings in the US Congress three weeks ago, Philip Cooney, a former aide to White House who was previously working at the American Petroleum Institute, admitted he had made hundreds of changes to government reports about climate change on behalf of the Bush administration {14}. Though he is not a scientist, he had struck out evidence that glaciers were retreating and inserted phrases suggesting that there was serious scientific doubt about global warming {15}.

The guardians of free speech in Britain aren't above attempting a little suppression, either. The Guardian and I have now received several letters from the climate sceptic Viscount Monckton, threatening us with libel proceedings after I challenged his claims about climate science {16,17,18,19}. On two of these occasions he has demanded that articles are removed from the internet. Monckton is the man who wrote to Senators Rockefeller and Snowe, claiming that their letter to ExxonMobil offends the corporation's "right of free speech" {20}.

After Martin Durkin's film was broadcast, one of the scientists it featured, Professor Carl Wunsch, complained that his views on climate change had been misrepresented. Wunsch says he has now received a legal letter from Durkin's production company, Wag TV, threatening to sue him for defamation unless he agrees to make a public statement that he was neither misrepresented nor misled {21}.

Would it be terribly impolite to suggest that when those who deny that climate change is happening complain of censorship, a certain amount of projection is taking place?

www.monbiot.com


References:

1. Catherine Brahic, 6th April 2007. Climate change is here now, says major report. NewScientist.com

2. David Adam, 7th April 2007. Scientists' stark warning on reality of warmer world. The Guardian.

3. Roger Harrabin, 6th April 2007. The Today Programme, Radio 4.

4. David Wasdell, February 2007. Political Corruption of the IPCC Report? http://www.meridian.org.uk/Resources/Global%20Dynamics/IPCC/contents.htm

5. Bob Ward, the Royal Society, 4th September 2006. Letter to Nick Thomas, Esso Ltd. You can see the letter here: http://image.guardian.co.uk/sys-files/Guardian/documents/2006/09/19/LettertoNick.pdf

6. John D Rockefeller IV and Olympia Snowe, 27th October 2006. Letter to Rex W Tillerson, ExxonMobil. http://snowe.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction=PressRoom.PressReleases&ContentRecord_id=9acba744-802a-23ad-47be-2683985c724e

7. Martin Durkin, 9th March 2007. Interview with Brendan O'Neill. http://www.spiked-online.com/index.php?/site/earticle/2948/

8. Independent Television Commission, 1st April 1998. Channel Four to Apologise to Four Interviewees in "Against Nature" Series. Press Release.

9. Union of Concerned Scientists and Government Accountability Project, February 2007. Atmosphere of Pressure: Political Interference in Federal Climate Science. http://www.ucsusa.org/assets/documents/scientific_integrity/Atmosphere-of-Pressure.pdf

10. Andrew Revkin and Katharine Seelye, 19th June 2003. Report by the EPA Leaves Out Data on Climate Change. The New York Times.

11. Union of Concerned Scientists and Government Accountability Project, ibid.

12. Andrew Revkin, 29th January 2006. Climate Expert Says NASA Tried to Silence Him. The New York Times.

13. Andrew Revkin, 8th March 2007. Memos Tell Officials How to Discuss Climate. The New York Times.

14. House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform, 19th March 2007. Committee Examines Political Interference with Climate Science. http://oversight.house.gov/story.asp?ID=1214

15. Andrew Revkin, 8th June 2005. Bush Aide Softened Greenhouse Gas Links to Global Warming. The New York Times.

16. Viscount Monckton, 14th November 2006. Email to the Guardian.

17. Viscount Monckton, 23rd November 2006. Letter to the Guardian.

18. Viscount Monckton, 23rd November 2006. Letter to George Monbiot

19. Viscount Monckton, 24th November 2006. Email to George Monbiot.

20. Viscount Monckton, 11th December 2006. Uphold Free Speech About Climate Change or Resign. Open letter to Senators Snowe and Rockefeller. http://ff.org/centers/csspp/pdf/20061212_monckton.pdf

21. Carl Wunsch, pers comm.


http://www.monbiot.com/archives/2007/04/10/the-real-climate-censorship/

Bill Totten http://www.ashisuto.co.jp/english/index.html

Tuesday, April 17, 2007

The Emperor of Africa

Tony Blair cannot let go of Britain's inordinate global powers

by George Monbiot

Published in the Guardian (April 17 2007)


The disease that afflicts all British governments is an inability to let go. Unable to accept the end of empire, they cling to past glories. However much they speak of modernity and democracy, they cannot help managing other people's lives, preserving foreigners - often at gunpoint - from the mistakes they would make if they were allowed to govern themselves.

I was going to call this an imperial delusion, but the United Kingdom has been remarkably successful at defending its powers. Our government has retained a permanent seat on the UN Security Council. Its membership of the G8 is unchallenged. Most importantly, it has preserved its unwarranted share of the vote on the boards of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank. And it has no intention of giving this up.

In advance of the IMF's spring meeting (which has just concluded in Washington) France and the United Kingdom rejected any political reform {1}. It is true that the fund's proposals are feeble. It is true that even after far more ambitious reforms the IMF would remain the wrong body, constitutionally destined to fail. But this is not why our government is holding out. It is resisting change because it wants to preserve its imperial rank.

The United Kingdom, with one per cent of the world's population, has five per cent of the IMF's votes {2}. Sub-Saharan Africa, with 12% of the population, has 4.6% {3}. The UK's share equals that of China and India put together. It is five times as big as Argentina's, nineteen times Bangladesh's, 35 times Kenya's, 124 times bigger than Malawi's {4}. The G7 nations - the UK, US, Japan, Germany, France, Canada and Italy - together possess 45% of the vote. The other 177 members are left to squabble over the remains.

Even these numbers tell only half the story. The five countries with the biggest quotas - the US, UK, Japan, Germany and France - are each allowed to appoint their own executive director to the IMF's board {5}. The rest must submit their candidates for election. Because poor nations don't know what's good for them, they are assigned to the tutelage of richer ones. The votes of the English-speaking Caribbean countries are given to Canada. Mongolia is represented by Australia, Kazakhstan by Belgium {6}. The reason the UK and France are resisting even the most timid reforms is that these would tip them below the threshold for automatic election: like the other countries they would be represented on the board as part of a bloc.

Power is distributed like this because the IMF is a plutocracy. A country's vote represents its "quota", which is a function of its gross domestic product. In theory the quota reflects countries' financial contributions to the fund. This is no longer the case, as the IMF receives much of its income from loan repayments from poorer nations. But the old formula has resisted sixty years of complaints.

The result is that the governments which are never made subject to the IMF's strictures control it, while those whose countries have been reduced to an IMF franchise have no say in the way it runs. The fund's allocation of votes is a perfect inversion of democracy.

A new report by ActionAid gives us a glimpse of how this unfair distribution of power affects the poor {7}. After years of protests by poor countries and their supporters in the rich world, the IMF and the World Bank at last permitted them to provide healthcare and education without charge. The rich nations also promised, in 2000, to ensure that by 2015 every child on earth would have primary education {8}. It looked like a great victory for the global justice movement. But the IMF is ensuring that the promise won't be met. It has, in effect, forbidden the poorest nations to hire sufficient teachers.

No one disputes that public sector wage rises can contribute to inflation. No one denies that governments have to exercise some degree of restraint. But the paternalists who run the IMF - who are fixated on creating safe havens for foreign capital - cannot help micromanaging the economies of the poor nations, without reference to the needs of the people who live there. The limits they have imposed on the public sector pay bill ensure that schooling can't be improved.

ActionAid studied three very poor countries with major education problems: Malawi, Mozambique and Sierra Leone. After they abolished user fees (and when the civil war ended in Sierra Leone), vast numbers of pupils enrolled. But a combination of the rich nations' failure to provide the foreign aid they had promised and the restrictions imposed by the IMF has prevented these countries from meeting the new demand. As a result, the pupil to teacher ratio in Sierra Leone is 57:1; in Malawi 72:1 and in Mozambique 74:1. That's the average: in rural areas it can be much higher. Many of the teachers are untrained; many give up because they cannot survive on their wages. In Malawi, for example, the goods required for the most basic level of subsistence cost $107 a month. A trained teacher receives $55 {9}.

So crowds of pupils strain to hear a scarcely-literate teacher somewhere in the middle distance seeking to instruct them without books, chalk, paper or pens. We should not be surprised to discover that forty per cent of children fail to complete primary school in Sierra Leone and Mozambique, and seventy per cent in Malawi. Most of the drop-outs are girls.

As a result, these countries are stuck in a vicious circle of misery. Until education improves, GDP remains low. Until GDP rises, there's little money for education. As one of the agencies charged with rescuing countries from poverty, the IMF should be seeking to break this circle. But the conditions it attaches to its loans keep these countries in their place. In Malawi the IMF sets the ceiling for public sector wages directly; in Sierra Leone and Mozambique the broader macroeconomic rules it imposes have the same effect. ActionAid argues that its fiscal targets are outdated and unnecessary: all these countries have now achieved sufficient stability to start raising teachers' pay.

But in no case did the IMF consult either the public or the state's own ministry of education before laying down the law. The amount of money a teacher in rural Malawi is paid is decided by the men in Horse Guards Road and Pennsylvania Avenue. Except for the district commissioners in pith helmets, little has changed since the country was called Nyasaland.

Last year Tony Blair acknowledged that the IMF "must become more representative of emerging economic powers and give greater voice to developing countries". {10} But he just can't let go. The proposed reforms do nothing to democratise the IMF; by linking the quota to purchasing power parity rather than raw GDP, they simply turn it into a more sophisticated plutocracy. But they would have the effect of very slightly empowering some middle-income countries while taking a few votes away from some of the rich ones. Even that is too much for the Emperor of Africa. If the British government wants to help the poor, it must first give up its power to tell them how to live. Until that happens, everything the prime minister says about "partnership" and "solidarity" {11} with the world's oppressed is humbug.

www.monbiot.com


References:

1. Larry Elliott, 13th April 2007. UK opposes plan for developing nations to have more say at IMF. The Guardian.

2. International Monetary Fund, 2007. IMF Members' Quotas and Voting Power, and IMF Board of Governors http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/memdir/members.htm

3. David Woodward, New Economics Foundation, February 2007. IMF Voting Reform: Need, Opportunity and Options. Paper for the G24 Technical Meeting, 12 March 2007. http://www.g24.org/wood0307.pdf

4. International Monetary Fund, ibid.

5. David Woodward, ibid.

6. International Monetary Fund, ibid.

7. Akanksha A Marphatia et al, April 2007. Confronting the Contradictions: The IMF, wage bill caps and the case for teachers. ActionAid. http://www.actionaid.org/assets/pdf/1%20%20CONFRONTING%20THE%20CONTRADICTIONS%20E-VERSION.pdf

8. The UN Millennium Development Goals, 2000. http://www.un.org/millenniumgoals/

9. ActionAid, ibid.

10. Tony Blair, 26th May 2006. Foreign Policy Speech 3. http://www.number-10.gov.uk/output/Page9549.asp

11. Tony Blair, 8th July 2005. Statement on the final day of the G8 Summit.
http://www.number-10.gov.uk/output/Page7877.asp


Copyright (c) 2006 Monbiot.com

http://www.monbiot.com/archives/2007/04/17/the-emperor-of-africa/


Bill Totten http://www.ashisuto.co.jp/english/index.html

Short Cuts

by John Lanchester

London Review of Books, Vol 29 No 7 (April 05 2007)


Since the LRB went to press with the last issue, climate change has made one of its periodic appearances in the headlines, with David Cameron and Gordon Brown each making announcements about what he will do when in office. This amounts to a green beauty contest, with the public in the position of the pen-sucking judges.

Cameron first. The Tory leader has hitherto, for all practical purposes, said nothing about anything: his mission has been to avoid policy commitments while making it clear his Tories were different from the party that a majority of the electorate had come to hate. The scale of his potential difficulties has been made apparent by the fact that even this purely cosmetic rebranding has caused distress to the party's large Gargoyle Tendency. The test of any policy's substance is whether or not it pisses some people off; seen from this perspective, climate change is Cameron's first actual policy. He has chosen to focus on flying, a weak point for the government, because its commitment to the expansion of airports seems to be in total contradiction to Tony Blair's stated belief that 'climate change is the single most important long-term issue that we face as a global community'. I say 'seems to be' - note the beautifully evasive way in which those last four words generalise the problem, rendering Blair's statement perfectly consistent with inaction in the UK. In any case, air travel, and transport in general, is not a Labour strength, and the Tories have targeted it with their report Greener Skies: A Consultation on the Environmental Taxation of Aviation. I defy anyone not to be a tiny bit impressed by the report, which is manifestly serious, and argues for both taxes on aviation fuel (which is currently exempt from duty) and carbon allowances for flying. Some of the plain English is welcome: 'The aim of any reform should be to reduce the overall growth in emissions from aviation'. Of course, the document's status as a consultation document allows plenty of wiggle room for future inaction or rowing-back.

Brown is more cautious. His one experiment with green taxes, the fuel price escalator of 1999, was a disaster. It led to the oil refinery blockade, and thence to general mayhem, and clearly left him thinking that the environment is one of those issues the public pretends to care about when talking to pollsters, but doesn't really. (As I write, Andrew Turnbull, former head of the Civil Service, has just said that Brown has 'a very cynical view of mankind'.) His policies involve encouraging us to switch to low-energy light bulbs, eliminating standby on electrical appliances, and extending home insulation. All of these are not just good ideas, they are essential, but they are about as close to doing nothing as Brown could have got away with - they certainly fail the definition of a real policy advocated above, as something that pisses somebody off. Brown has said that he considers the Tory policy on flying 'ill considered, unworkable and unfair', and that he is opposed to taxation and regulation as ways of tackling climate change.

The Labour politician who seems to be taking the issue most seriously is David Miliband, the environment secretary, who in contradiction to Brown says that 'tax is a key instrument in climate change mitigation ... The first principle is to put a price on greenhouse-gas emissions, equivalent to the damage it causes to the environment and society'. This, given what his boss-to-be says, is fighting talk. Miliband has been looking into the question of a personal carbon allowance for all UK citizens, and, crucially, for any taxes and allowances that are introduced to be brought in quickly. He has also called for investment in carbon capture and storage, of exactly the kind that the Treasury turned down when BP asked for GBP 500 million to set up a carbon capture and storage system at Peterhead. There is, I suspect, a generational thing here: it looks as if the two forty-year-olds, Cameron and Miliband, get this subject in a way that the 56-year-old Brown doesn't quite.

The joke is that we are going to need all these policies: the light bulbs and the tax on flights, the insulation and the carbon capture and storage and the carbon allowances and plenty more besides. Taken all together, they represent only the start of a systematic approach to climate change, one which would reshape politics. When a government minister goes on television to announce that fewer cars are being sold, that fewer people are flying, that fewer people are buying new stuff, and that this is really good news - that'll be the sign that things are changing. But this is at least the glimmer of a beginning.

I wrote in the last issue that the media give climate change sceptics far too much press: a fifty-fifty balance, whereas the peer-reviewed literature has 938 papers supporting the consensus and none disagreeing. The recent Channel Four programme The Great Global Warming Swindle was a perfect example of the kind of thing the sceptics come out with, complete with the usual cherry-picked data and selective editing. One of its most eminent contributors, the MIT oceanographer Carl Wunsch, has said that his words were framed to make it appear he was saying something 'diametrically opposite to the point I was making', and that the programme was 'one-sided, anti-educational and misleading'. He said of Channel 4 that 'I took them at face value - a grave error'. A 1997 film about environmentalists by the same director, Martin Durkin, caused Channel 4 to have to broadcast a prime-time apology. The Independent Film Commission ruled that 'comparison of the unedited and edited transcripts confirmed that the editing of the interviews ... had indeed distorted or misrepresented their known views'. Given the strength of that wording and the public apology, you do have to wonder what kind of television channel would commission a programme on the same subject from the same director.

_____

John Lanchester is a contributing editor at the LRB.

Copyright (c) LRB Ltd, 1997-2007

http://www.lrb.co.uk/v29/n07/lanc01_.html


Bill Totten http://www.ashisuto.co.jp/english/index.html

Monday, April 16, 2007

Israel's Last Chance

by Gabriel Kolko

Antiwar.com (March 17 2007)


The United States has given Israel $51.3 billion in military grants since 1949, most of it after 1974 - more than any other country in the post-1945 era. Israel has also received $11.2 billion in loans for military equipment, plus $31 billion in economic grants, not to mention loan guarantees or joint military projects. But major conditions on these military grants have meant that 74 percent of it has remained in the US to purchase American arms. Since it creates jobs and profits in many districts, Congress is more than ready to respond to the cajoling of the Israel lobby. This vast sum has both enabled and forced Israel to prepare to fight an American-style war. But the US since 1950 has failed to win any of its big wars.

In early 2005 the new chief of staff of the Israel Defense Force, Dan Halutz, embarked on the most extensive reorganization in the history of IDF. Halutz is an Air Force general and enamored with the doctrines that justify the ultra-modern equipment the Americans showered upon the Israelis. Attack helicopters, unmanned aircraft, advanced long-range intelligence and communications, and the like were at the top of his agenda. His was merely a variation of Donald Rumsfeld's "shock and awe" concepts.

The 34-day war in Lebanon, starting July 12 last year, was a disastrous turning point for Israel. Until the Eliyahu Winograd Commission, which Olmert set up in September 2006, delivers its interim report in late April - which will cover the first five days of the war only - and resolves these matters, we will not know precisely the orders sent to specific units or the timing of all of the actors, but there is already a consensus on far more important fundamentals. But the Israelis did not lose the war because of orders given or not given to various officers. It was a war of choice, and it was planned as an air war with very limited ground incursions in the expectation that Israeli casualties would be very low. Major General Herzl Sapir at the end of February said that "the war began at our initiative and we did not take advantage of the benefits granted to the initiator". Planning for the war began November 2005 but reached high gear by the following March before the expected kidnapping of two IDF soldiers - the nominal excuse for the war. There is no controversy over the fact that it was a digitized, networked war, the first in Israel's experience, and conformed to Halutz' - and American - theories of how war is fought in this high-tech era. The US fought identical wars in Afghanistan and Iraq - and is in the process of losing both.

What were the Israeli objectives? - war aims, if you will. While the Winograd Commission report may clarify this question, at the very least a number of goals are known already. Halutz wanted to "shock and awe" the Hezbollah and their allies with Israeli power - all within a few days. There were lesser aims, such as moving the Hezbollah rockets well away from the borders or even getting its two kidnapped soldiers returned, but at the very least Halutz wanted to make a critical point.

Instead, he revealed Israel's vulnerability based, in large part, on the fact the enemy was far better prepared, motivated, and equipped. It was the end of a crucial myth, the harbinger of yet more bloody, but equal, armed conflicts or a balance of power conducive to negotiations. Olmert and his generals very likely expected to have a great victory within five days, thereby increasing his popularity with the hawkish Jewish population that is a growing majority of the voters, to reverse his abysmally low poll ratings, thereby saving his political career - he received three percent popularity in a TV poll in early March.

There are many reasons the Israelis lost the war in Lebanon, but there is general agreement within Israel that the war ended in disaster and the deterrent value of the once unbeatable, super-armed IDF gravely diminished in the entire Arab world for the first time since 1947. But the Israelis were defeated for many of the same reasons that have caused the Americans to lose the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan - and in Vietnam as well. Both their doctrine and equipment were ill suited for the realities they confronted. There was no centralized command structure to destroy but small groups, lightly armed, mobile, and decentralized, able to harass and ultimately prevail. The Hezbollah also had highly effective Russian anti-tank missiles, and the IDF admits that "several dozen" tanks were put out of commission, if not destroyed, including the Merkava Mark IV, which Israel claims in the best protected tank in the world - and which it seeks to export. They also fired around 4,000 rockets at Israeli population centers and the IDF could not stop this demoralizing harassment. Hezbollah bunkers and arsenals were largely immune to air attacks, which caused the Israelis to "stretch the target envelope" to attack densely populated areas, with over 1,000 civilian dead. "Israel lost the war in the first three days", an American military expert concluded, expressing a consensus shared by many US Air Force analysts. "If you have that kind of surprise and you have that kind of firepower you had better win. Otherwise, you're in for the long haul."

The problem, though, was not merely a new Arab prowess, though changes in their morale and fighting organizations should not be minimized. Halutz' drastic reorganization of the IDF since early 2005, one that was supposed to attain the promises of all its American-supplied equipment, "caused", in General Sapir's words, "a terrible distortion". The IDF was an organizational mess, demoralized as never before, and on January 17 2007 Halutz resigned, the first head of the IDF to voluntarily step down because of his leadership in war. Had he not resigned he would have been fired. His successor quickly annulled his reorganization of the IDF, which is now sorely disorganized. The American way of warfare had failed.


The Next War

The Lebanon War is only a harbinger of Israeli defeats to come. For the first time there is a rough equivalence in military power.

Technology everywhere is now moving far faster than the diplomatic and political resources or will to control its inevitable consequences. Hezbollah has far better and more rockets - over 10,000 short-range rockets is one figure given - than it had a few years ago, and Israel's military intelligence believes it has more firepower than it had last spring, before it was attacked. Israel has failed to convince Russia not to sell or give their highly effective anti-tank missiles to nations or movements in the region. They fear that even Hamas will acquire them. Syria is procuring "thousands" of advanced anti-tank missiles from Russia, which can be fired from five kilometers away, as well as far better rockets that can hit Israeli cities.

If the challenges of producing a realistic concept of the world that confronts the mounting dangers and limits of military technology seriously are not resolved soon there is nothing more than wars to look forward to. The IDF intelligence branch does not think a war with Syria is likely in 2007; other Israeli military commentators think that any war with Syria would produce, at best, a bloody standoff - just like the war in Lebanon last summer. Israel has about 3,700 tanks and they are all now highly vulnerable. Its ultra-modern air arm, most of which the US has provided, only kills people but it cannot attain victory.


The New Israel - A 'Normal' Nation

In the past, wars produced victories and more territory for the Jews; now they will only produce disasters for everybody. The Lebanon War proved that.

Zionism was a concoction of Viennese coffee houses, Tolstoy's idealization of labor, early ecological sentiment in the form of the wanderfogel that influenced Zionism but various fascistic movements as well, militarism, and varieties of socialism for parts of it, including bolshevism. Jews sought to go to Palestine not only because of the Holocaust but also the changes in American immigration laws in the first half of the 1920s. Without the vast sums the Diaspora provided, Zionism would never have come to fruition. Every nation has its distinctive personality reflecting its traditions, pretensions, and history's caprices, and in this regard Israel is no different. It exists but it is becoming increasingly dangerous to world peace - and to itself.

Zionism always had a military ethos, imposed only in part by Arab hostility, and from the inception of Zionism's history its political and military leaders were one and the same. Generals were heroes and they did well in politics. The logic of force merged with an essentially Western, colonialist bias. Its founders were Europeans, and it was an outpost of European culture until the globalization of values and products made these cultural distinctions increasingly irrelevant. It always has been a militarist society, proud of its fighters. And notwithstanding the Cold War and the increasing flow of arms from the US, which, merged with its e'lan, meant it won all its post-1947 wars until last summer, it still retains a strong element of hysteria about the world it faced. And it is often messianic - especially its politicians - because messianism is very much influential among a growing portion of the religious and traditional population.

Israel has ceased being "Zionist" in the original sense of that ideology. For the sake of ceremony it retains Zionism as a label, just as many actual or aspiring nations have various myths which justify their claims to a national identity. But it is a long way from the original premises, in large part because its war with its neighbors - especially the Arabs who live in its midst or nearby - made its military ethos dominant over everything else.

Israel today is well on its way to becoming a failed state. Were it not for the fact that this outpost of fewer than five million Jews is a critical factor of war and peace in a much larger and vital region it would not be important or at all unusual. But it is terribly confused and has a very mixed identity; the US has since the late 1960s protected it. World peace now depends on this place, its idiosyncrasies, personality, and growing contradictions.

Israel is a profoundly divided society and its politicians are venal cynics. Many nations - and surely the Palestinian leaders until Hamas, by default, took over - are no different. As Shlomo Ben-Ami, the former foreign minister, describes it, on one side there are economically disadvantaged Oriental Jews, Russian nationalists who were motivated above all by a desire to leave the USSR (an appreciable minority is not Jewish), and Orthodox Jews of every sort united only by their intense dislike of "assimilationists"; on the other hand we have secular Jews, some leftists and modernizers, more skilled and of East European parentage who were once crucial in the formation of Zionism. There are an increasing number of "Jerusalem-Jews", as Ben-Ami calls them, motivated to come primarily by economic incentives, and they are bringing the Right to power more and more often. They fear the Arabs who live in Israel. "Tel Aviv" Jews are assimilating to a global, modernizing culture, more akin to the "normal" existence the early Zionists preached, and they are also the emigrants out because they have high skills. Israel now has as many people leaving as immigrate to it, and North America alone is home to up to a million of them.

Some indications of these trends range from the banal to the tragic. There are all varieties of punks, gays, everything. As for the ultra-Orthodox, some have placed "curses" on those who advocate disengaging from any settlements in the West Bank or Gaza; they will be punished by heaven. One of four ultra-Orthodox Jews believes this is precisely why Sharon was struck with a coma. Martin van Creveld, professor of military history at the Hebrew University and friend of many IDF leaders, whose fame was made studying the role of morale in armies, thinks the morale of the conscripts in the IDF is "almost to the vanishing point; in some cases crybabies have taken the place of soldiers". "Feminism" in the armed forces has intensified the rot, but "social developments" have destroyed much of the army - as have officers "who stayed behind their computers" last summer.

Never before has Israel been wracked by so many demoralizing scandals. The president of Israel just resigned because of rape charges against him, Prime Minister Olmert is being investigated by the comptroller's office on four charges of corruption, the new chief of police was once accused of accepting bribes and fraud and his appointment has created an uproar, and other sordid cases too numerous to cite. Israel is "stewing in its own rot", a Haaretz writer concluded; the police, retired judge Vardi Zeiler commented after heading a committee to investigate the state's operation, were like Sicily and the state was on its way to becoming a mafia-style regime.

In this anarchy wars are motivated for political reasons but now they are lost because the society is disintegrating and - again to quote a Haaretz writer - the government "lacks both direction and a conscience". Worse yet, its leaders are incredibly stupid and Olmert can only be compared to Bush in political intelligence. There is a consensus among Israeli strategists that the Iraq War was a disaster for Israel, a geopolitical gift to Iran that will leave Israel in ever-greater danger long after the Americans go home. "Israel has nothing to gain from a continued American presence in Iraq", the director of the Institute for National Security Studies of Tel Aviv University stated last January. The US ousted the Taliban from Afghanistan and Saddam Hussein from Iraq and created an overwhelming Iranian strategic domination. Its campaign for democracy has brought Hamas to power in Palestine. "It's a total misreading of reality", one Israeli expert is quoted when discussing America's role in the region. American policies have failed and Israel has given a carte blanche to a strategy that leaves it more isolated than ever.

Notwithstanding this consensus, on March 12th Olmert told the American Israel Public Affairs annual conference by video link "Those who are concerned for Israel's security ... should recognize the need for American success in Iraq and responsible exit". "Any outcome that will not help America's strength ... would ... undercut America's ability to deal effectively with the threat posed by the Iranian regime ..." His foreign minister was even stronger. "Stay the hell out of it", a Haaretz writer concluded. No group is more antiwar than American Jews, Congress - in its own inept way - is trying to bring the war to an end, his own strategists think the Iraq War was a disaster - and Olmert endorses Bush's folly.


The Syrian Option

It is in this context that the peace of the region will or will not evolve. Olmert will do what is best for his political position domestically, and retaining power will be his priority - no less than his predecessors and most politicians everywhere. It is not at all promising. But for technical, social, and morale reasons Israel will not win another war. At every level, it has become far weaker. It can inflict frightful damage on its enemies but it cannot change the fundamental balance of all forces that lead to victory.

Making peace with Syria would be a crucial first step for Israel, and although the Palestinian problem would remain it would nonetheless vastly improve Israel's security - and disprove the Bush's Administration's contention until very recently that negotiations with Syria or Iran on any Middle East question involves conceding to evil. The Israeli press reported in great detail the secret 2004-05 Israel-Syria negotiations, which were very advanced and involved major Syrian concessions - especially on water and Syrian neutrality in a host of political controversies with the Palestinians and Iranians. It also reported that Washington followed these talks closely and that it - especially Cheney's office - opposed bringing them to a successful conclusion. At the end of January many important members of Israel's foreign policy establishment publicly urged reopening these talks.

Olmert dismissed Syria's gestures categorically after they became public. "Don't even think about it" was Secretary of State Rice's view of a treaty when she saw Israeli officials in mid-February. But though Mossad supports the obdurate Rice-Olmert view, military intelligence argues that Syria's offers are sincere and serious. Moreover, intelligence's head warned that Syria is growing stronger and peace was very much to Israel's interest. He was supported by most of the Foreign and Defense ministries, including Minister of Defense Amir Peretz. Olmert demanded, and got, their acquiescence.

A treaty could be finalized with Syria within four to six months, Alon Liel, former director general of the Israeli Foreign Ministry who negotiated with the Syrians, reported the Washington Times on March 7. Liel was asked to come to the US embassy in Tel Aviv about this time and tell the entire political staff of his talks. The reports in Haaretz, which included the draft treaty, were by then quite definitive. Then the Knesset, Israel's parliament, invited Ibrahim Suleiman, Syria's representative to the talks, to speak to the foreign affairs and defense committees. Such invitations are very rare, not least because Syria and Israel are legally in a state of war. But if the Syrians and Israelis go to war again, the normally hawkish Martin van Creveld concluded at this time, Israel "could wreak much destruction, but it could not force a decision". In three or four years the Syrians would be ready for a protracted war that would prove too much for Israel. After running through his bizarre alternatives, and the state of the IDF's morale, van Creveld concluded that reaching a peace with Syria was very much to Israel's interests - and that even the Americans were coming to the position that talking to Syria and Iran (as the Baker-Hamilton panel had recommended last December) was rational.

Syria has been attempting desperately to improve its relations with Washington, if only to forestall some mad act on the US' part. When Israel attacked Lebanon last July, Elliott Abrams, in charge of the Middle East at the National Security Council, along with other neocons in Washington, urged it to expand the war to Syria. At the end of February Syria renewed its appeal to the US to discuss any and all Middle East issues with it in "a serious and profound dialogue". For over two years it has made similar attempts; Baker knew all about these. Talking to alleged adversaries is perhaps the most fundamental point of difference between Cheney, his neocon alliance, and Rice, and it covers North Korea, Iran, and many other places. The debate is less the nature and goals of American foreign policy but how to conduct it - by the application of material power and even the threat of war versus more traditional means, such as diplomacy.

In the past several weeks, taking her cue from the Republican Establishment in the Iraq Study Group last December, Rice has been winning points in this debate but her successes are fragile. Cheney is a powerful, determined and cunning man who knows how to succeed all too well with the president.

America's overwhelming problem is Iraq and, above all, Iran, and apparently the Bush Administration has now decided that Syria can help it in the region. Ellen Sauerbrey, an Assistant Secretary of State, was in Damascus on March 12, nominally to discuss refugees but she heard from the Syrians "that all the questions are linked in the Arab region and that a comprehensive dialogue is needed on all these questions". Syria has also mobilized the European Union, which now favors a return of the Golan Heights to it. On March 13 the US ambassador to Israel publicly stated a bald lie that the Americans had never "expressed an opinion on what Israel should or should not do with regard to Syria".

It is now entirely in the hands of the Olmert government whether to negotiate with Syria.

Israel has ignored Washington on at least four very important issues, starting with the Sinai campaign in 1956, and acted in its own self-interest. The Americans were Olmert's alibi but he can use them no more. There are other crucial issues, such as the Saudi plan for the resolution of the Palestine question, and never has Israel had a greater need for peace than at the present. Instead, like the US, its head of state may be the worst in its history, motivated by short-term political advantage and a consummate desire to retain power.

But the Syrian option is there for the taking. If there is war then the brain drain out will accelerate and migration in will fall; demography will take over. Israel will then become the only place in the world a Jew is in danger precisely because he or she is a Jew. If this opportunity is lost there will eventually be a mutually destructive war that no one will win - the Lebanon War proved that Israel must now confront the fact that its neighbors are becoming its military equals and US aid cannot save it.

Indeed, America's free gifts enabled Israel to begin a war last July with illusions identical to those that also caused the Bush Administration to embark on its Iraq folly.

_____

Gabriel Kolko is the leading historian of modern warfare. He is the author of the classic Century of War: Politics, Conflicts and Society Since 1914, Another Century of War?, and The Age of War. He has also written the best history of the Vietnam War, Anatomy of a War: Vietnam, the US and the Modern Historical Experience. His latest book is After Socialism.


http://www.antiwar.com/orig/kolko.php?articleid=10689


Bill Totten http://www.ashisuto.co.jp/english/index.html

Sunday, April 15, 2007

What is farming for?

by Jules Pretty

Leopold Letter (Winter 2003 Vol 15 No 4)


What is farming for? Clearly, the first response is to produce food.

During the last fifty years farmers have been spectacularly successful at increasing food production. They have intensified the use of non-farm resources such as pesticides, fertilizers and machinery, to produce much more from the same amount of land - three times the amount of wheat, barley and other grains, potatoes and sugar beets from the same area of land, while milk yields per cow have more than doubled.

The price we pay for any item of food, however, does not tell the full story of the costs involved in its production.

Unlike other economic sectors, agriculture is inherently "multi-functional". It does more than just produce food, fiber and oil. It has a profound impact on many other aspects of local, national and global economies and ecosystems. These side-effects can be either negative or positive; but the negative costs are not reflected in the prices paid by producers or consumers. "Externalities" of this kind distort the market by encouraging activities that are costly to society even if the private benefits are substantial.

A heavy truck that damages a bridge, or pollutes the atmosphere, externalizes some of its costs - and others pay for them. Similarly, the use of a pesticide imposes costs on others if it leaks away from fields to contaminate drinking water, or builds up as a dangerous residue in foods.

Modern agriculture has caused significant pollution from pesticide, nitrate, soil and bacterial losses. This costs GBP 250 million a year to remove from drinking water, paid for by water consumers, not by the polluters. So the farming sector, in effect, receives a subsidy for its polluting behavior. Modern farming has brought a severe loss of rural biodiversity, from the removal of hedgerows, monocultural rotations and use of pesticides and herbicides. We have the food, but no longer the skylarks or poppies or corncrakes. Human health also has been affected through the use of BSE, pathogens that show up in our food supply and overuse of antibiotics.

Yet there is another side to the story. The positive side-effects of agriculture offer a new way forward. More sustainable farming is very good at producing public goods: things we can all enjoy and that contribute to the economy.

Farming produces attractive landscapes we want to visit. Each year visitors and tourists in Great Britain spend 551 million days in the countryside, spending more than GBP 14 billion per year - more than four times as much as the subsidies to farmers from the government.

Agriculture also can absorb carbon in soils and trees to provide new carbon sinks, helping to mitigate climate change. It can hold water in wetlands to provide flood control. It can nurture the farmland birds we all feel are part of our heritage. It contributes to rural jobs. Many of these may end up being significant new sources of money for farmers.

This is the future for farming - as a multi-functional sector, building natural and social assets in the countryside, while providing us with wholesome food from farmers we trust. Each on their own may not represent fundamental change, but together they offer opportunities for all farmers.

The primary goal for agricultural and rural policy must be sustainable agriculture, which minimizes the use of inputs that damage the environment or harm human health, and which integrates food production processes with regenerative processes, such as nutrient cycling, nitrogen fixation, soil regeneration and natural enemies of pests.

Can agriculture play a positive role in rural development? The dominant pattern of rural development has been to attract external capital, technologies or institutions to rural areas. But this is an expensive and risky approach. An alternative way focuses on "endogenous" patterns of development: growing from within. The priority is to look first at what natural, social and human resources are available in rural areas, and then to ask: can anything be done differently to harness the resources more productively, without causing damage to these assets?

This more locally-based approach forces us to look differently at the structure of rural economies. Every time someone buys something from outside the local economy, money leaks out. Each time raw materials are exported, value is added elsewhere, not in the locality. Each time natural resources are depleted or polluted, the local capital base diminishes.

If policies and processes are designed to plug these economic "leaks", the renewable asset base can grow while also increasing the flow of desirable goods and services. There are five principles for plugging the leaks in rural economies.

First, use local renewable resources.

Second, recycle financial resources by spending locally.

Third, add value to primary produce before it is exported from the locality.

Fourth, connect stakeholders to create trust and new linkages.

And fifth, build human capital.


Beyond these key principles, there are wider policy issues that the government must come to grips with if it is to pursue a multi-functional, sustainable future for agriculture and rural economies. In particular, should farmers receive public support for the multiple public benefits they produce above and beyond food? Should those who pollute pay the cost? These should be policy priorities.

It is not all crisis. There are good things happening in farming. Sustainable farmers employ larger numbers of people; farmers' markets and schemes that deliver fruit and vegetables to homes promote direct links between consumers and producers. There are a growing number of examples of responsible corporate practice for land stewardship, and progress on the careful protection of some of the jewels in our biodiversity crown.

But to encourage these developments there can be little doubt that a fundamental shift in farm and countryside policy is essential.

_____

Jules Pretty is director of the Centre for the Environment and Society at the University of Essex in England. He was a guest of the Leopold Center's ecology initiative in October 2003.

_____

Published by the Leopold Center for Sustainable Agriculture

Ames, Iowa 50011, (515) 294-3711

www.leopold.iastate.edu

http://www.leopold.iastate.edu/pubs/nwl/2003/2003-4-leoletter/commentary.htm


Bill Totten http://www.ashisuto.co.jp/english/index.html

Saturday, April 14, 2007

Less waste, more speed

Growing crops to solve the planet's energy needs doesn't work. Recycling the energy in our waste just might have a significant part to play.

by Jeremy Smith & Jon Hughes

The Ecologist (March 2007)


Bush's latest state of the union speech - wanting twenty percent biofuels from food crops to be driving the US fleet in ten years - makes two things remarkably clear. First even the Toxic Texan now sees the environment as a vote winner. And second, people such as him are still looking for the answers in the wrong place.

To see where the answers might lie he needs to look beyond the cornfields of the Midwest. To somewhere aiming to be nuclear free by 2010 and oil-free by 2020. To Sweden. This radical energy policy, the most ambitious of its kind in the world, was introduced by the socialists and adopted, after a recent change of government, by the equivalent of the Tories. In terms of ecological consciousness and seeking bipartisan solutions to environmental problems it affirms that Sweden is a good twenty years ahead of either Britain or America.

The country's environmental awakening started in the Eighties when two separate but connected events shocked the country. First there was the bleached coffee filter paper scandal. People liked the filter paper for their coffee machines to be white. But then it was discovered that the chemicals used in the manufacturing process left cancer-causing residues and were causing environmental degradation simply so we could have something that looked aesthetically pleasing. Then dead seals started to appear off the north-west coast. The Swedes put two and two together and realized that the fundamental processes used in manufacturing were having a direct impact on the environment. And determined that they were going to do something about it.

So they set their minds to addressing these issues, as fishing, forestry and agriculture are critical parts of their economic portfolio. How best to use their natural resources is tantamount. Biofuels there have been used as a fuel extender for petrol-engined vehicles for years. Today, almost 40,000 cars in the country are powered by some form of alternative fuel. Last year sales were up 168 per cent. By the end of 2006 sales of alternative fuel cars were expected to account for about twenty per cent of all new cars sold.

However, the biofuels approach currently being endorsed by Bush and others is already recognised by the Swedes as being an ultimately unsustainable solution and of little help even in meeting the modest targets for cutting carbon dioxide emissions set by the EU. So while the rest of the world is only now belatedly jumping on the biofuels bandwagon, the Swedes have already moved on to the next phase.

Today, they are concentrating on non-food-crop biomass for energy production and fuel, in the form of biogas, for cars, both of which have far greater potential to play a long and lasting role in providing green fuel and green energy. Rather than sow new plants that compete for space with food crops, they are using the waste products of their society - anything from woodchip to slaughterhouse slurry - and turning them into fuel.

In December last year they opened the world's largest biogas plant. Costing 3.2 million Euro, the Gothenburg plant will be able to produce 1,600 cubic metres (cu/m) (56,000 cubic feet) of biogas per hour. This will be done by refining gas from the city's wastewater treatment plant into biogas.

Outside of Gothenburg, the government and 25 local municipalities have backed an initiative to build 200 new biogas stations over the next two to three years. Expansion on this scale and at this speed will replace the need for around 35 million litres of petrol and diesel fuel, cutting emissions by 50,000 tonnes a year; a clear signal to business and the public to have confidence and invest in the sector.

The country already has 779 biogas driven buses. In the city of Linkoping for example, all the buses and many of the taxis run on biogas produced locally from slaughter waste, agricultural waste and other kinds of food/organic waste. Across the country, sales of biogas-powered cars increased by 49 per cent in 2005.

Not that they've stopped there. Last year Sweden unveiled the world's first biogas powered train. Driven by two biogas bus engines it can carry up to 54 passengers at 81 miles an hour and run for 372 miles before it need refuel. It cost them just 1.08 million Euros to develop.


Closing the loop

Biogas is produced in essentially two different ways - by biodigesters and bioreactors. From the cities of Sweden to remote rural villages of China anaerobic biodigesters are becoming increasingly commonplace to see. These are essentially micro-generators where animal manure and organic matter (food waste, agriculture wastes and so forth) are fed into a chamber. They combine with the oxygen in the air and heat up naturally, just as in a compost heap. As they do so they produce two things; gas (predominantly methane with a symall percentage of carbon monoxide), and a slurry of sterile (non-toxic) nitrogen compounds.

The gas is then piped to a generator, which uses it as fuel to supply power to the village or farm for household appliances and electricity driven farm machinery. Anaerobic digestion also removes the need for petrochemically produced fertliser, which in the UK accounts for around fourteen per cent of greenhouse gas emissions - the same as industry. The result: with the exception of the release of a tiny amount of methane gas, a totally green whole cycle power system.

Aside from the climate benefits, replacing costly chemical fertilisers with cheap ones produced on site from anaerobic digesters can also boost farm incomes. In Germany this potential is already being harnessed. There, farms with herds of around 500 head of cattle are paid to 'biodigest' their wastes, the gas from which is then bought and collected. For struggling farmers in the UK, biodigesters could make a dramatic impact on their balance sheets. For example, an average hill farm in Wales running 500 sheep on 100 acres - the minimal possible to make it anyway approaching economical - would spend around thirty per cent of its annual income on petrochemically produced fertiliser.

Bioreactors run on a slightly different principle to biodigesters, and use both heat and pressure to speed up waste conversion, like giant kitchen pressure cookers. And they do it on a grander scale and faster. Where a biodigester would run over a ten day cycle, a bioreactor completes the same conversion of matter to energy in a few hours, recycling some of the energy it creates to power its own operation. Construction of a bioreactor has recently started in Lockerbie. When in operation the plant will generate enough electricity to power 70,000 homes, offsetting 140,000 tonnes of greenhouse gas emissions each year. The Lockerbie bioreactor will be fuelled by biomass, sourced from the waste matter from the nearby wood processing and pulping industries; a resource that would otherwise by fly-tipped, burnt or land filled. It's a solution suitable to Scotland (and potentially Wales) because of its extensive commercial forests.


Closer to home

Bioreacators' potential doesn't stop there. The reactors can process practically anything - all human and animal effluent, animal carcasses, garden waste - and convert it into energy. So, for instance, the effluent in rivers such as the Thames could in principle be filtered out to create power, whilst cleaning up the river in the process.

The Institute of Science in Society (ISIS) has calculated that there are somewhere in the region of 88 million tons of effluent and organic waste suitable for anaerobic digestion in the UK. If converted into fuel this could provide 11.7 per cent of our total energy needs and save at least 15.8 per cent of our carbon emissions. Or, create enough liquid fuel to power half our transport needs, saving around fifty per cent of our current transport emissions, which themselves account for fourteen per cent of the UK's total emissions.

Admittedly waste biomass is not quite as clean as carbon neutral forest biomass. Nonetheless it is far cleaner than simply incinerating our waste. For every ton of waste currently incinerated, 2.8 tons of carbon dioxide are emitted. When converted to energy in a bioreactor, the process is ten times cleaner, as the reactors use far less energy than a waste incinerator, and can be fitted with carbon dioxide scrubbers on their exhausts.

Furthermore, they are 85 per cent efficient at recovering energy from waste: an incinerator is only about ten to fifteen per cent efficient, or less. In sum: you can get five to eight times as much energy, all of it green, from bioreactors than incinerators, at a fraction of the carbon dioxide output. The same applies to anaerobic digesters, which are also very energy efficient.

Another immediate benefit of pursuing the biomass/biogas line is that in the UK we already have the infrastructure in place. Gas travels through pipes, and the pipes already exist to deliver natural gas. Localising production also answers a key question of energy security and addresses the problem of energy wasteage, with seven to 25 per cent of the electricity produced in the UK currently being lost simply while being transported around the national grid.

It might also lead to proper funding of recycling services as millions of tons of waste and rubbish can be converted into hundreds of millions of pounds worth of valuable energy, to be sold back to the consumer.

Despite lack of support from central government, across the UK, there are several signs at a local level of people taking the initiative for themselves. In Nottingham for example, Trevor Hardcastle of Hardstaff haulage has developed a simple and effective way to convert a diesel engine to drive on biogas. In an industry that praises operators who have a single-digit profit margin he has reduced his fuel bills by one million GBP annually. Biogas (and natural/ propane gas) comes in at half the price of diesel (currently around 46 pence), and is even cleaner. He has even created his own infrastructure so his trucks can refuel along the motorway routes they travel.

This approach has huge potential. In the UK we currently give bus companies fuel-tax subsidies to the tune of two billion GBP a year. Yet because these companies operate around fixed points they could - probably more than any other sector - start to convert to biogas immediately. They are already doing this in Mauritius. The only public transport on the island is its bus service, which transports around 200,000 people each day. Earlier last year the country embarked on a scheme to convert its entire fleet of 525 buses to run off biogas, thus tackling its waste, emissions and energy problems in one go.

Wales's first biomass district heating scheme was launched on 30th June 2006. A 500 kilowatt wood chip boiler, installed by Dulas Wood Energy, provides heat to Ysgol Vyrnwy School, Community Centre and thirty houses. Wood chip is sourced from within a twenty mile radius of the school and the scheme is operated through a partnership between Powys County Council, Dulas, Severn Trent Water and the residents.

At the National Botanical Garden of Wales, the Great Glasshouse, the offices, shops and catering facilities currently burn factory waste chippings and shavings that would probably end up in a landfill site otherwise. By about 2010 they hope to use coppiced willow and poplar, grown on an adjacent field.

Kingsmead Primary School in Cheshire has a biomass boiler, producing sixty percent of the school's heating needs. Initially fuelled on wood pellets from a local factory, the boiler now runs on waste factory wood chips sourced in Manchester. In combination with photovoltaic panels and solar water heating, the school has a total energy consumption of about one third of that which is typical for a school of this type and size.

Barnsley metropolitan borough council is replacing its old coal-burning power stations and finding a use for local forestry waste by converting to the use of woodchip burners. Though the project is ongoing, it has already cut its own carbon dioxide emissions by forty percent relative to 1990 levels. Not only do locals now no longer have to put up with the pollution that came with coal - they also have lower fuel bills. Whilst coal costs 1.8 pence per kilowatt hour, biomass in the form of wood chips costs only 1.1 pence per kilowatt hour. Residents at the first biomass scheme to be up and running in Barnsley found their heating bills cut by half due to the new combination of cheap energy, council-installed insulation, and individual energy meters, giving every householder a financial incentive to reduce electricity consumption.

Finally, the UK's first dung-fired power station opened at Holsworthy, Devon, in July 2002. The 7.7 million GBP facility processes up to 150,000 tonnes of slurry each year from thirty local farms.

What all these many schemes show is that our energy and climate crises may be global, but they are best tackled at a local level, with the involvement and support of the community concerned. When people realise that diligent waste disposal coupled with prudent energy useage can free them of dependence on distant and fragile energy supplies while also massively reducing their impact on climate change, they are more likely than ever to wish to get involved.

The biofuels approach of Predient Bush and the like tries to solve one problem only to create many more. The many biogas models adopted by local communities worldwide, meanwhile, work with what we have far too much of - waste - and turn it into something in increasingly short supply - energy. In so doing they answer two problems with one simple and elegant solution.


Bill Totten http://www.ashisuto.co.jp/english/index.html

Feeding Frenzy

Why is it still acceptable to eat the endangered large predators of the sea?

by George Monbiot

Published in the Guardian (April 03 2007)

To Ransom A Myers, who died on March 27th.


If these animals lived on land there would be a global outcry. But the great beasts roaming the savannahs of the open seas summon no such support. Big sharks, giant tuna, marlin and swordfish should have the conservation status of the giant panda or the snow leopard. Yet still we believe it is acceptable for fishmongers to sell them and celebrity chefs to teach us how to cook them.

A study in this week's edition of Science reveals the disastrous collapse of the ocean's megafauna. The great sharks are now wobbling on the edge of extinction. Since 1972 the number of blacktip sharks has fallen by 93%, tiger sharks by 97% and bull sharks, dusky sharks and smooth hammerheads by 99% {1}. Just about every population of major predators is now in freefall. Another paper, published in Nature four years ago, shows that over ninety per cent of large predatory fishes throughout the global oceans have gone {2}.

You respond with horror when you hear of Chinese feasts of bear paws and tiger meat. But these are no different, as far as conservation is concerned, from eating shark's fin soup or swordfish or steaks from rare species of tuna. One practice is considered barbaric in Europe and North America. The other is promoted in restaurant reviews and recipes in the colour supplements of respectable newspapers.

In terms of its impact on both ecology and animal welfare, shark fishing could be the planet's most brutal industry. While some sharks are taken whole, around seventy million are caught every year for their fins {3}. In many cases the fins are cut off and the shark is dumped, alive, back into the sea. It can take several weeks to die. The longlines and gillnets used to catch them snare whales, dolphins, turtles and albatrosses. The new paper shows that shark catching also causes a cascade of disasters through the foodchain. Since the large sharks were removed from coastal waters in the western Atlantic, the rays they preyed on have multiplied tenfold and have wiped out all the main commercial species of shellfish {4}.

Much of this trade originates in East Asia, where shark's fin soup - which sells for up to GBP 100 a bowl - is a sign of great wealth and rank, like caviar in Europe. The global demand for shark fins is rising by about five per cent a year {5}. But if you believe that this is yet another problem for which the Chinese can be blamed and the Europeans absolved, consider this: the world's major importer (and presumably re-exporter) of sharks is Spain {6}. Its catches have increased nine-fold since the 1990s {7} and it has resisted - in most cases successfully - every European and global effort to conserve its prey.

The Spanish defend their right to kill rare sharks as fiercely as the Japanese defend their right to kill rare whales. The fishing industry, traditionally dominated by Galician fascists, exerts an extraordinary degree of leverage over the socialist government. The Spanish government, in turn, usually gets its way in Europe. The EU, for example, claims to have banned the finning of sharks. But the ratio it sets for the weight of fins to the weight of bodies landed by fishermen is five per cent. As edible fins make up only two per cent of the shark's bodyweight {8}, this means that two and half finless sharks can be returned to the water for every one that comes ashore. Even this is not enough for the Spanish, whose members of the European Parliament have been demanding that the percentage is raised {9}.

Northern European civilisation doesn't come out of this very well either. In 2001 the British government promised to protect a critically endangered species called the angel shark, whose population in British waters was collapsing. It ducked and dithered until there was no longer a problem: the shark is now extinct in the North Sea {10}.

Why do we find it so hard to stand up to fishermen? This tiny industrial lobby seems to have governments in the palm of its hand. Every year, the European Union sets catch limits for all species way above the levels its scientists recommend. Governments know that they are allowing the fishing industry to destroy itself and to destroy the ecosystem on which it depends. But nothing is sacred, as long as it is underwater. In November the United Nations failed even to produce a resolution urging a halt to trawling on the sea mounts at the bottom of the ocean. These ecosystems, which are only just beginning to be explored, harbour great forests of deepwater corals and sponges, in which thousands of unearthly species hide. But we can't summon the will to stop the handful of boats that are ripping them to shreds.

The power of the fishermen's lobby explains the lack of protection for marine predators. Though fish species far outnumber mammal species, the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species protects 654 kinds of mammal and just 77 kinds of fish. Trade in only nine of these is subject to a complete ban {11}.

The rules that do get passed are ignored by both fishermen and governments. On Sunday I stood with a fisheries manager on the banks of a famous sea trout river in Wales. Perhaps I should say a famous former sea trout river in Wales. For the past four years, scarcely any fish - sea trout or salmon - have appeared. He was not sure why, but he told me that trawlers in the Irish Sea land boxes of what appear to be bass; hidden under the top layer are salmon and sea trout. No one seems to care enough to stop them: government monitoring appears to be non-existent. The pressure group Oceana walks into European ports whenever there's a public holiday and finds hundreds of miles of illegal drift nets stowed on the boats {12,13,14}. Where are the official inspectors?

Of course, governments plead poverty. Which makes you wonder why they decided last year to allocate EUR 3.8 billion to the destruction of the marine environment. This is what you and I are now paying in subsidies to keep the ocean wreckers afloat. The money buys new engines, and boats for young fishermen hoping to expand their business {15}. For the same cost you could put a permanent inspector on every large fishing vessel in European waters.

If we don't act, we know what will happen. Another paper published in Science suggests that on current trends we'll see the global collapse of all the species currently caught by commercial fishermen by 2048. Yet, if we catch the ecosystems in time - with temporary fishing bans and the creation of large marine reserves - they can recover with remarkable speed {16}. I hope British ministers, now drafting a new marine bill, have read this study.

But beyond a certain point the collapse is likely to be permanent. Off the coast of Namibia, where the fishery has crashed as a result of over-harvesting, we have a glimpse of the future. A paper in Current Biology reports that the ecosystem is approaching a "trophic dead-end" {17}. As the fish have been mopped up they have been replaced by jellyfish, which now outweigh them by three to one. The jellyfish eat the eggs and larvae of the fish, so the switch is probably irreversible. We have entered, the paper tells us, the "era of jellyfish ascendancy".

It's a good symbol. The jellyfish represents the collapse of the ecosystem and the spinelessness of the people charged with protecting it.

www.monbiot.com



References:

1. Ransom A Myers et al, 30th March 2007. Cascading Effects of the Loss of Apex Predatory Sharks from a Coastal Ocean. Science Vol 315 no 5820, pages 1846 - 1850. DOI: 10.1126/science.1138657

2. Ransom A Myers and Boris Worm, 15th May 2003. Rapid worldwide depletion of predatory fish communities. Nature 423, pages 280-283, doi:10.1038/nature01610.

3. Shelley C Clarke et al, October 2006. Global Estimates of Shark Catches using Trade Records from Commercial Markets. Ecology Letters Vol 9 no 10, pages 1115-26.

4. Ransom A Myers et al, ibid.

5. Francesca Colombo, 12th March 2007. Dangerous Waters - Even for Sharks. Inter Press Service News Agency. http://ipsnews.net/news.asp?idnews=36885

6. Oceana, 24th September 2006. Conservationists rally MEPs to make, not break EU ban on shark finning. Press release.

7. Oceana, 5th December 2006. Oceana requests explanations from the spanish socialist and popular parties regarding their efforts to increase shark captures. Press release.

8. Oceana, 24th September 2006, ibid.

9. Oceana, 23rd August 2006. Sharks threatened by European Parliament finning report. Press release.

10. Peter Popham, 9th March 2007. Sharks hunted to extinction in the Mediterranean. The Independent.

11. http://www.cites.org/eng/disc/species.shtml

12. Oceana, 29th June 2006. Oceana investigators uncover scandalous fishing practices: a large fleet of illegal driftnetters are fishing out of Sicilian and Calabrian ports. Press release.

13. Oceana, 4th August 2006. Oceana investigates french ports in the Mediterranean to uncover an illegal fleet of driftnetters. Press release.

14. Oceana, 8th November 2006. Oceana presents evidence in an international meeting of mediterranean countries that Italy and France are using illegal driftnets. Press release.

15. Council Of The European Union, 19 June 2006. 2739th Council Meeting: Agriculture and Fisheries. http://www.consilium.europa.eu/ueDocs/cms_Data/docs/pressData/en/agricult/90146.pdf

16. Boris Worm, 3rd November 2006. Impacts of Biodiversity Loss on Ocean Ecosystem Services. Science Vol 314, pages 787-790. DOI: 10.1126/science.1132294.

17. Christopher P. Lynam, 11th July 2006. Jellyfish overtake fish in a heavily fished ecosystem. Current Biology Vol 16 No 13, pages 492-493.

Copyright (c) 2006 Monbiot.com

http://www.monbiot.com/archives/2007/04/03/feeding-frenzy/


Bill Totten http://www.ashisuto.co.jp/english/index.html

Friday, April 13, 2007

The next genetic revolution?

We didn't want GM on your table, but the crucial question now is, will we allow it in our tanks?

by Robin Maynard and Pat Thomas

The Ecologist
(March 2007)



In recent years, as horror headlines about genetically modified (GM) crops have vanished from the mainstream media, it may have seemed as if those battling to stop them being produced had won. In reality the lack of GM fanfare has been little more than a quiet moment before the storm. The ability of biotech companies like Monsanto and Syngenta to improve agricultural production is viewed as a lynchpin in the success or failure of the biofuels revolution. If the biotech industry can cleverly reposition GM crops as a non-food, industrial 'green' energy commodity, it might just succeed in persuading an otherwise reluctant public that GM is a good thing.

Biotech companies aim to do this in two ways. The first is the genetic modification of crops such as corn, to increase drought resistance and yield and to reduce the cost or increase the efficiency of ethanol production. The second is the creation of powerful enzymes that will efficiently convert crop waste or plants such as switchgrass, which consists largely of hard-to-break-down cellulose, into ethanol.

It is estimated that it will take ten to fifteen years of research and development work to make the latter technology viable. But genetically modified biofuel crops are already a reality, being grown and tested in real fields in real world conditions, especially in the USA.

GM corn now makes up a substantial part of all corn destined for ethanol production in the USA and Monsanto reports that sales of its corn seeds and traits have risen 38 percent in the last year alone. However, since these varieties offer no particular advantage over conventional corn for ethanol production, it is possible that the diversion of GM maize into ethanol production reflects the extent to which this commodity has been rejected as a food and feed staple. And as biodiesel production relies on oils such as sunflower, palm or soya, increased demand will also mean more demand for GM oilseed crops, in particular soya beans.

In Europe, where public resistance to growing GM crops remains intractable, planting of GM crops is still very limited. Most energy crops in Europe are in the form of non-GM sugarbeet, rapeseed and corn. However, Syngenta has recently applied for permission to import a GM maize into Europe for processing into fuel. The GM maize variety, 'Event 3272', has been modified to express an enzyme (AMY797E), a key component in the production of bioethanol from maize that shortens the time it take to ferment the feedstock into alcohol. The company have also developing a GM cassava for use in biofuels.

Food producers are also jumping on the bandwagon. In Europe, the Confederation of the food and drink industries of the EU (CIAA) has recently called for more GM rapeseed varieties to be authorised for import into the EU. By authorising new GM rapeseed varieties the CIAA hopes that pressure on non-GM European rapeseed for food purposes could be reduced.

Encouragement from eminent scientific and political figures completes the pincer movement. Recently, UK Chief Scientist Sir David King commented on a government website that 'public acceptance is likely to be greater for GM non-food crops'.

Likewise, the biotech industry heartily welcomed President Bush's 2006 State of the Union address. In a statement the following day, James Greenwood, President and CEO of Bio - the biotech industry organisation representing more than 1,100 biotech companies, academic institutions and centres in the US and worldwide, commented that 'the biotechnology industry can play a vital role in meeting the President's stated goal of increasing America's energy security by replacing imported oil with domestically produced alternative fuels'.

Greenwood went on to state that if the President's Advanced Energy Initiative was successful, 'industry will begin investing in commercial-scale biorefineries, and consumers could begin buying more products - including fuel for their cars and trucks and bioplastics - produced in America's heartland. America's breadbasket could soon be come our energy fields as well.'

Biotech companies have also set their sights on other continents, where public resistance is lower or less organised and environmental restrictions weaker or absent. Here too, they seek to create a distinction in the public's mind between GM as food (not acceptable) and GM for industrial uses (acceptable).

For example, President Lula of Brazil recently declared that GM soya will be used for biofuels, while 'good soya' will be kept for human consumption. A high percentage of soya is already available in GM versions and Argentina has recently established incentives to expand GM soya bean cultivation for biodiesel use.

Last year, Tony Blair's Africa Commission declared that mass growing of biofuels in Africa, 'provides a sustainable development path for the many African countries that can produce biofuels cheaply'. This apparently holy pairing of mutually beneficial environment and development objectives was also firmly on the agenda at the recent climate talks in Nairobi, held under the auspices of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in November 2006. In a statement put out at the meeting, a coalition of rain forest and development NGOs warned delegates that:

'The Genetic Engineering industry is keen to use acceptance of biofuels as a strategy to speed up GM acceptance in Africa, and the industry is working on a number of GM biofuel crops. Most African countries have yet to develop biosafety policies on GM crops, and are cautious of the difficulties in regulating and monitoring this novel food system, which could easily cross-pollinate and contaminate conventional agriculture.'

Currently, South Africa is the only African country that grows GM crops commercially. Persuading others to endorse GM biofuel crops as an acceptable technological tool to combat climate change would be a huge coup for the biotech industry, reversing years of hard-fought resistance by African governments and citizens to prevent GM contamination of their indigenous agriculture.

Whether GM or not, mass planting of biofuel crops would undermine the continent's already fragile food security, as food crops grown for local consumption would compete for the best land with fuel crops grown for export, as well as driving further clearance of natural forests for plantations, as has already happened in Malaysia and Indonesia.

Oil palms currently dominate such plantations, but the biotech companies are developing biofuel GM trees engineered for insect resistance, faster growth, and increased cellulose production. Cellulose would be the key feedstock for producing fuels from trees, but the process requires the use of additional genetically-engineered enzymes to break down the cellulose into fuel.

To this end, biotech companies are working on ways to reduce the amount of lignin in trees so as to increase the proportion of cellulose available for fuel production. But lignin is the glue that holds trees together and the substance that provides the rigidity necessary for them to stand up. No GM tree crops have been grown commercially yet, but they are being promoted as 'next generation' crops both to produce biofuel and to act as carbon sinks. However, environmentalists fear that GM cross-pollination with natural forest trees not bred to cope with reduced lignin content could lead to forests full of 'floppy trees'. Cross-pollination is an issue of wider concern, too. Tree pollen is able to disperse over hundreds of miles, so GM tree plantations could cross-pollinate with non-GM trees and contaminate much wider areas of remaining natural forest.

Biofuels and industrial biotechnology constitute a key strategic sector for the biotech industry. Their alleged role in combating climate change is being exploited to resurrect the reputation and expanding the planting of GM crops globally. Lax regulatory standards (especially in the USA) mean that unless the powerful energy of consumer outrage can be harnessed - and quickly - the GM juggernaut will be rolling down a road near you very soon.



Bill Totten http://www.ashisuto.co.jp/english/index.html

Thursday, April 12, 2007

B10 FU3L

How green is my tank?

Unless automakers accept the need for serious action on fuel economy in addition to lower-carbon fuels, biofuels will remain a dangerous distraction.

by Harriet Williams

The Ecologist (March 2007)


'Live Green, Go Yellow' exhorts a multimillion-dollar ad campaign from General Motors (GM), the world's largest automaker, promoting flexible fuel cars capable of running on blends of up to 85 per cent ethanol, mainly derived from corn. 'GM FlexFuel vehicles lead the way to a cleaner, less oil-dependent future, when they run on renewable, US grown fuel. Join the ride!'

Global bioethanol production more than doubled between 2000 and 2005 to 36 billion litres, with Brazilian sugar cane and US corn together accounting for more than eighty per cent of this total. Production of biodiesel, starting from a much smaller base, expanded fourfold to nearly four billion litres, nine-tenths of it produced in the EU. Countries as varied as Colombia, Japan, Canada, South Africa and the Philippines are contemplating mandatory biofuel blends for their auto fleets. The world's eyes are focused enviously on Brazil, nicknamed the Saudi Arabia of biofuel, where bioethanol accounts for forty per cent of the fuel used by the country's cars and avoids the need for roughly $69 billion a year in oil imports.

Despite all this activity, in 2005 ethanol powered only 0.8 per cent of the distance travelled by the world's auto fleet. If and when this proportion increases, the physical availability of biofuel will be only one factor - future trends in fuel economy of individual vehicles and in the total mileage people travel are equally important.

GM and the other Big Three US automakers, Ford and Daimler Chrysler, have all vowed to double production of flex-fuel vehicles by 2010. Officially, car-makers like the yellow stuff because it offers the prospect of boosting energy security - a hot topic in the USA - and reducing greenhouse gas emissions, which strikes chords in Europe.

Unofficially, biofuels offer automakers a convenient way out of any number of tricky corners. Ten per cent of the world's oil is burnt on US roads - one in every two barrels it consumes - and automakers were clearly in the frame when President Bush decried the country's 'addiction to oil' and its unpleasant side-effects, which include spending half a million dollars every minute on petroleum imports. High oil prices and the war in Iraq have fuelled criticism of the Big Three for producing gas-guzzling vehicles, while nimbler Asian rivals such as Toyota and Honda increase market share with less fuel-hungry technologies such as hybrid engines.

Then there is all the bad press over climate change. Road transport already accounts for around one quarter of carbon emissions in most developed countries, a figure set to grow as car use increases relative to other energy-hungry sectors that are reining in their emissions.

An obvious fix for these ills - increasing the mileage per gallon travelled by the average car - has conspicuously failed to materialise. And yet a ten miles per gallon increase in the average fuel economy of US cars, for instance, would reduce oil demand by 3.5 million barrels a day. By contrast, even if the USA diverted its entire corn yield to ethanol, it would only displace 1.35 million barrels, or fifteen per cent, of the nine million barrels (and rising) consumed by US cars every day.

Instead, the trend for bigger, more powerful vehicles has cancelled out a series of impressive efficiency gains. The average weight of new US cars has increased 24 per cent between 1981 and 2001, with a 93 per cent increase in horsepower over the same period. All this means that the average fuel economy for the whole fleet is an oil-thirsty 19.6 miles per gallon - worse than that of the Model T Ford launched in 1908. The reason is simple: profit margins are highest on large, fast cars, and automakers have deliberately stoked consumer demand for these vehicles. A 2006 Friends of the Earth report on car advertising in the UK, for instance, found that nearly two thirds of adverts were for vehicles in the two most polluting categories.


Political failures

Car-makers' dismal record on improving fuel economy has led to a clutch of initiatives and agreements on fuel economy action on both sides of the Atlantic, which the industry is determined to fight off.

In the USA, the federal fuel economy standard for new cars has stalled at 27.5 miles per gallon since the mid-1980s, and automakers have filed a legal challenge against Californian proposals mandating lower carbon emissions. Over the years, the state of California has helped set the agenda for US environmental politics and, with another thirteen states lined up to adopt the proposals, and California suing automakers for contributing to global warming, car manufacturers are fearful that the game may finally be up.

In Europe, policymakers are smarting from the failure of a high-profile voluntary agreement that saw automakers pledge to reduce carbon emissions, whose success rested upon efficiency gains through vehicle technologies. The average new European car now emits a hefty 162 grams of carbon dioxide per kilometre, a far cry from the 140 grams target agreed for 2008.

It isn't as if 140 grams or less is unrealistic - in fact, these cars are already a commercial reality. The Toyota Prius - a large, family car - produces just over lOO grams per kilometre, and in the UK alone more than thirty other models that produce emissions of less than 120 grams are on sale.

However, the fact is that binding targets for fuel economy are a bete noire for the auto industry, which claims that there are cheaper, simpler ways to reduce auto emissions than through vehicle efficiency. Through bad maths or bad faith, the auto industry has consistently exaggerated the compliance costs associated with new regulation enacted on safety or environmental grounds. For instance, it estimated that catalytic converters would cost up to GBP 600 per vehicle. The real cost worked out around GBP 50.

Whatever the truth of vehicle technology - and remember that the energy-hungry air-con systems and heated seats that shift premium cars today were partly made possible by engine-efficiency gains - it suits automakers to push for other options. Cleaner fuels, rather than leaner vehicles, are far more consistent with the industry's bottom line, allowing automakers to continue to churn out vehicles that make the biggest profits, namely gas-guzzling luxury cars and SUVs.

Furthermore, those profits are artificially propped up by import tariffs and other subsidies that protect biofuel producers in both the US and EU markets. Yet there is also a much-overlooked cost to the consumer. High biofuel blends may be competitively priced at the pumps, but the lower energy content of ethanol means that motorists need 1.5 gallons to drive the same distance they can on a gallon of petroleum.

All the ugly realities that tarnish today's biofuels - low land availability, low efficiency and high cost - are supposed to evaporate with the advent of the much-vaunted second-generation biofuels, in which plant wastes are literally pressed, digested and genetically manipulated into service as high-energy fuels, with massive carbon savings to boot. But a number of technological breakthroughs are needed to make cellulosic ethanol cost-effective, and the consensus is that large-scale deployment is at least ten years away.

Even if vast quantities of clean, sustainable and cheap biofuel were there for the taking, there is the question of putting it in the tank. All that refining, processing and distribution requires an 'industrial-scale infrastructure', in the parlance of the oil industry, and so far that industry has shown little interest in cultivating a competitor to its number one product, petroleum, to which operating systems are geared. The great irony of GM's love affair with flex-fuelled vehicles is that only a fraction of them will ever run on a high-ethanol blend - E85 is currently available at less than 600 of America's 170,000 service stations.

Meanwhile, the global car pool continues to grow at a pace that far outstrips biofuels' limited ability to displace petroleum demand. The fleet is expected to double by 2020 to 1.2 billion cars, one for every 6.5 people. If all these cars are as fuel-intensive as those today, biofuels will struggle to become a significant proportion of the fuel mix, even if production volumes are ramped up. And if road transport continues burning oil at today's rate or higher, pretty soon we will be dipping into unconventional and environmentally devastating fossil fuels such as oil shales for petrol, whose much larger energy extraction bill will cancel out any greenhouse gas benefits accruing from modest biofuel blends.


Lobbying hard

The auto industry's political power should not be underestimated. For instance, in the USA, auto manufacturers and dealers together make up one of the biggest campaign donor groups in politics, accounting for more than $105 million in contributions to federal candidates and party committees since 1989. Around 75 per cent of those contributions have gone to Republicans. Contrast this with the lobbying & purchasing power of smaller groups promoting fuel economy, such as the Sierra Club, which is currently calling for fuel efficiency standards averaging at least forty miles per gallon for all vehicles within ten years. The Sierra Club has spent just $1.3 million lobbying government since 1997.

Perhaps not surprisingly then, since 2001 Congress has rejected at least five efforts to increase fuel economy standards. The most recent attempt, an amendment introduced by the Democratic senator for Illinois, Dick Durbin, to President Bush's 2005 energy bill, was defeated in June. The amendment would have increased efficiency standards for passenger vehicles to forty miles per gallon and to 27.5 miles per gallon for pickups and other non-passenger vehicles.

In the meantime, according to Energy Department data, petrol use in the USA increased from 332 million gallons a day in January 2001, to 380 million gallons a day during the first week of September 2005, a fourteen percent increase. In the EU also, fuel use is increasing. Compared with twelve million barrels a day in 2000, it is predicted to grow to 13.2 million barrels a day by 2020; 93 per cent of this increase is likely to be accounted for by transport.


Double standards

For automobile manufacturers, the promotion of biofuels is worthwhile because it absolves them of all responsibility for their products and heads off unwelcome policies on fuel economy. So far, this strategy is working pretty well. In the EU, the European Automobile Manufacturers Association (Association des Constructeurs Europeens d'Automobiles, or ACEA) is vigorously promoting an 'integrated approach' to reducing vehicle emissions, which basically comprises passing on responsibility for auto emissions to motorists, road designers and national governments - anyone but the auto industry, in fact. 'It should not be, it cannot be the responsibility of the automotive industry alone', ACEA secretary general Ivan Hodac has said. One of ACEA's leading alternatives is, naturally, biofuels.

In his latest State of the Union address, President Bush made biofuel the centrepiece of his call to cut domestic petrol consumption twenty per cent by 2017. While Bush also speculated upon improving fuel economy, he was careful not to announce any specific mechanisms for doing so.

The US has already signed a blatant fuel economy loophole into law in the name of promoting biofuels. Under the so-called flexfuel discount, automakers pick up credits towards their federal fuel economy targets when they manufacture E85 - capable cars.
Car-makers churning out lots of these vehicles - the majority of which never use E85 - are in essence set a lower fuel economy standard. 'There's no way Detroit would be producing these cars if they weren't allowed to weaken miles per gallon standards in return', says Dan Becker, director of the Sierra Club's Global Warming Programme.

Jos Dings, Director of The European Federation for Transport and Environment, is adamant that biofuels should be additional to action on technology, not a substitute. 'Carbon dioxide targets for new vehicles have to be met through car-related measures, not through fuel measures', he says. 'Anything that would suggest greenhouse gas savings from biofuels could count towards these targets is a double counting of efforts and a weakening of policies. That is unacceptable in a time when climate change and oil dependency concerns are more paramount that ever.'

The next two years will see the battle over fuel economy enter a crucial new phase. The EU will be taking decisions on what should replace the failed voluntary agreement, and the US courts will rule on whether or not California can take strong, independent action to reduce carbon emissions from road vehicles. Other countries will be watching, including China - the world's second largest auto market, which has already set fuel economy standards of its own.

Ultimately, we cannot expect to grow afresh each year sufficient fuel to replace the masses of fossil energy we currently mine to power cars. Biofuels only have a part to play under a scenario where greatly improved fuel economy reduces petrol demand to a level with which photosynthesis can compete. Unless automakers accept the need for serious action on fuel economy in addition to lower carbon fuels, biofuels will remain a dangerous distraction.

_____

Harriet Williams is a freelance journalist and environmental consultant specialising in transport issues.



Bill Totten http://www.ashisuto.co.jp/english/index.html

Wednesday, April 11, 2007

Correspondence with Hamish Mykura

Head of History, Science and Religion at Channel 4

Letter from George Monbiot to Hamish Mykura (March 16 2007)

Dear Hamish,

I deeply regret your attempt on the Today programme on Wednesday to use my programme for Dispatches as your justification for broadcasting Martin Durkin's film The Great Global Warming Swindle.

I do so for three reasons.

1. You claimed that both programmes were commissioned as part of "a season of opinionated polemical films about global warming". This is untrue, as I am sure you know. The films were commissioned quite separately, by different departments. The Great Global Warming Swindle must have been commissioned long before my programme. Neither I nor anyone else on the production team has ever been told that my programme was part of "a season of opinionated polemical films about global warming", or that it would be in any way linked to The Great Global Warming Swindle. If I had been aware of this, I would have withdrawn my cooperation. If this claim reflects your general standards of honesty, it might explain how The Great Global Warming Swindle came to be broadcast.

2. I am also resentful of the association between my film and Martin Durkin's. My film was subjected to a rigorous process of fact-checking. Any claim which would not stand up to rigorous academic scrutiny was dropped. The production team was determined to ensure that every part of the film was robust and unchallengeable, and were supported in this by Channel 4's current affairs department. Somehow the same standards do not seem to have been applied by your department. Durkin's film contained a number of fundamental errors, some of which, it seems, could only have been made deliberately. Some of the graphs had plainly been "modified" by the production team. He suggested that the cooling after the Second World War was unexplained by climate scientists, while in truth climate scientists know that it was caused by global dimming as a result of sulphate pollution. As one of the contributers to the programme, Professor Carl Wunsch, has pointed out, the film was "as close to pure propaganda as anything since World War Two", while the way it used his remarks "comes close to fraud". How dare you associate me with this?

3. You suggested that my film in some way "balances" Durkin's. But my film was not about the science of climate change. It was about the policies arising from it. I was not asked to demonstrate that manmade climate change was taking place. Neither was Mark Dowd, whose film you also cited. I am sure you can tell the difference between a film about science and a film about policy.

I would like to ask you three questions:

A. Could you please give me a list of the programmes about climate change your department has broadcast over the past ten years.

B. In your letter to the Guardian you state that "we are presenting a range of programmes on the environment, many of which have as their premise the influence of carbon dioxide as a driver of climate change". Could you please let me know what these programmes are, and whether any of them are devoted to explaining the science of climate change, as understood by the great majority of the world's scientists?

C. Could you please tell me whether you or any other commissioner in your department possesses a science degree?

Yours Sincerely,

George Monbiot

_____


Letter from Hamish Mykura to George Monbiot (March 20 2007)

Dear George,

Thank you for this. I'm happy to respond to the points you raise.

Firstly on your general points, 'The Great Global Warming Swindle' was indeed commissioned as part of a season of polemical films about climate change. The others were your film and Mark Dowd's 'God is Green'. I discussed these films at an early stage with Dorothy Byrne and other colleagues. It is usual for Channel 4's seasons to originate from different departments, for example our Adoption Season and Bloody Foreigners Season comprised programmes from the News and Current Affairs and Documentaries departments.

'The Great Global Warming Swindle' was subject to the same legal and editorial scrutiny as your film, which you agree is rigorous.

Carl Wunsch was not misrepresented or misled about the programme and our correpondence with him clearly establishes this.

On your specific questions

1. I do not have a list of climate change programmes covering ten years. However in the last two years Channel 4 transmitted 'A World Without Water' on the global scarcity of water supply, 'The Year the Earth Went Wild' on increasing climate and geological volatitlity, 'The End of the World as we Know It' which was Marcel Theroux's essay on global warming, 'Seven Days that Shook the Weathermen' on the effects of climate change, 'Britain's Tornado' on the increase in volatile weather in the UK, and 'What would Jesus Drive' on the debate over US fuel consumption.

2. Channel 4 announced to the press in January that the environment would form the focus of a range of different programmes and series in 2007. As well as the three polemics which deal with climate change, we announced the series 'Dumped' - in which participants see how well they can live on the household waste that we throw away every day; the series 'River Cottage Market' which addresses the concept of 'food miles' and offers practical solutions to using local produce. There was also the series 'Animal Farm', which is an investigation of the pros and cons of genetic modification.

3. My own PhD devises mathematical predictive equations to assess soil erosion and environmental impacts of rainforest clearance in the tropics. Regards

Hamish Mykura

Head of History, Science & Religion

_____

Letter from George Monbiot to Hamish Mykura (March 22 2007)

Dear Hamish,

thank you for your reply.

On the first point, as this is news to those of us who made my film, I would be grateful if you could provide me with some evidence: some memos or publicity material, for example, which show that it was commissioned as part of "a season of opinionated polemical films about global warming".

On the issue of editorial scrutiny, you are plain wrong. Every fact in my programme stood up to examination, and remains standing today. The film you commissioned, by contrast, was a concatenation of mistakes so evident that some of them could only have been made on purpose. Let me give you some examples:

1. "Volcanoes produce more carbon dioxide each year than all the factories and cars and planes and other sources of man-made carbon dioxide put together".

This is simply wrong, as the most basic fact-check would have established.


2. The closing statement was as follows: "There will still be people who believe that this is the end of the world. Particularly when you have, for example, uh, the chief scientist of the UK telling people that by the end of the century, the only inhabitable place on the Earth, will be the Antarctic and it may, humanity may survive, thanks to some breeding couples, who moved to the Antarctic, I mean this is hilarious, it would be hilarious actually, if, if, if it weren't so sad."

These are not the views of the chief scientist, Sir David King. They are the views of James Lovelock. Singer appears to have confused them. Again, even a cursory fact check would have established this.


3. Almost every graph in the film was manipulated. In some cases, the time-line was extended beyond the available data, in others the curve had been smoothed to the extent that it became misleading. It looks as if these instances were deliberate attempts to fit the data to the argument.


4. The credentials of several of the scientists in the film were inflated. The worst example is Tim Ball, who is described as "Professor Tim Ball, Department of Climatology, University of Winnipeg". As far as I can discover, there is no Department of Climatology at the University of Winnipeg. In fact he was a Professor of Geography at that university from 1988 until he retired in 1996. He has not since held an official position there or at any other university. Nor has he been granted an emeritus professorship.


Then there are the distortions by omission:

5. There is the suggestion, for example, that the standard climate model cannot explain the relative cooling between the 1940s and the 1970s. Any reputable climate scientist could have pointed out that the mechanism - global dimming - is well known and consistent with the models.

6. There is the claim that as rising temperatures, as shown in the Antarctic ice cores, pre-date rises in carbon dioxide, carbon dioxide cannot be a driver of climate change. Again, as I suspect both you and Durkin knew perfectly well, this too is explained by the models.

7. There is the deliberate evasion of the question of funding. The film asks the contributers who have NOT received funding from the oil industry whether or not they have, and they reply in the negative. It does not ask Fred Singer, who HAS received such funding. It claims that Pat Michaels came "under attack from climate campaigners" for "conduct[ing] research which was part funded by the coal industry". In fact, as the most cursory check would have shown, he came under attack for acting as a paid advocate for the coal industry, without declaring his interests. If you want documentary evidence for this, I can send it to you. But, again, your fact checkers - if there were any - should have found it.

Who was the scientific adviser on this film? Who were the fact-checkers? What qualifications did they have?

As for Carl Wunsch, surely he is better placed to decide whether or not he has been misrepresented than you are. Anyone watching the film would have concluded - as I did when I first saw it - that Wunsch subscribed to its thesis that carbon dioxide was not a driver of climate change. Can you tell me that this is not the impression it creates? In other words, what depths of intellectual dishonesty are you prepared to plumb in defending this film?

But the most shocking information in your email is contained in the last line. When I asked whether anyone in your department had a degree in science, I confidently expected that the answer would be no - this might have explained quite a lot. Some of the errors in the film might even have been understandable. But discovering that you have a PhD in maths/environmental science, I realise that you must have gone into this with your eyes open. You know what the scientific process involves. You know what science looks like. You must also know what scientific fraud looks like. You appear to have chosen fraud.

Yours Sincerely, George Monbiot.

_____


Letter from Hamish Mykura to George Monbiot (March 26 2007)

Dear George,

Thank you for this.

With regard to the points you raise about the content of the programme 'The Great Global Warming Swindle', this film was subject to the same degree of editorial scrutiny as your programme 'Greenwash', which you yourself describe as 'rigorous'. The film was indeed commissioned as one of several polemical films dealing with global warming issues in our season of films on the environment.

You question my decision to commission this film. However 'The Great Global Warming Swindle' represented the views of the significant minority of scientists and commentators who don't subscribe to the view that anthropogenic carbon dioxide is driving climate change. The very significant debate which the film has started is to be welcomed.

Regards, Hamish Mykura

_____


Letter from George Monbiot to Hamish Mykura (April 01 2007)

Dear Hamish,

Thank you for your message. I note with regret that you have not answered my questions; indeed that you have simply repeated the assertions made in your previous email, which I have already shown to be incorrect.

I listed seven evident and substantial "mistakes" made by The Great Global Warming Swindle. I could have listed several more. Your claim that it was "subject to the same degree of editorial scrutiny" as my programme, Greenwash, could be substantiated in one of only two ways. The first would be to show that Greenwash was also riddled with wildly misleading claims. I challenge you to name one respect - let alone seven - in which its assertions have been proved wrong.

The second would be to accept that the editorial scrutiny offered by your department is deficient. If it were true that The Great Global Warming Swindle was subject to rigorous scrutiny, then the people responsible for that scrutiny are in the wrong job. As you are ultimately responsible for ensuring that the programme was ready for transmission, that surely includes yourself. How many "mistakes" does a film have to make before you consider that it has NOT been subject to rigorous scrutiny?

I asked you in my last letter to justify your claim that both my film and Martin Durkin's were commissioned as part of "a season of opinionated polemical films about global warming". You have failed to do so. Why? If your claim were true, the evidence would surely not be hard to come by. Nor would it constitute a state secret. There is surely only one explanation for your failure to support this claim: you are unable to do so because it is untrue. If that is the case, then not only did the film you commissioned mislead its viewers on several substantial points of science, but you misled the listeners to the Today programme about the commissioning process. I will be forwarding our correspondence to the Today programme and asking that a correction be made.

Finally, you state that "the very significant debate which the film has started is to be welcomed". You give yourself too much credit: the debate about whether or not anthropogenic global warming is happening was not started by the Great Global Warming Swindle. It has been taking place for over twenty years. Your film has indeed started a debate: about whether or not it was fit to be broadcast. I think your failure to provide credible responses to my questions answers that point.

Yours Sincerely,

George Monbiot

Copyright (c) 2006 Monbiot.com

http://www.monbiot.com/archives/2007/04/01/correspondence-with-hamish-mykura/#more-1052


Bill Totten http://www.ashisuto.co.jp/english/index.html

The Real Costs of Modern Farming

Pollution of water, erosion of soil and loss of natural habitat, caused by chemical agriculture, cost the Earth.

by Jules Pretty

Resurgence
issue 205


Recent decades have seen the growing globalization of the world food system. Annual trade flows in the 1990s amounted to some US$4,000 billion, of which the food and drink market was $250 billion. Between sixty and ninety percent of all wheat, maize and rice is now marketed by just six transnational companies. By the late 1990s, the top ten agrochemical companies accounted for eighty percent of world sales.

Changes in the food system have brought considerable cost to the environment and human health. Such problems have been widely documented over recent decades, but it is only recently that efforts to put a monetary cost on them have begun to emerge. These costs are telling us something fundamentally important about the real costs of modern food and farming.

Many farmers depend upon public finance to survive. Each year, this amounts to about GBP 3 billion in the UK. It has taken fifty years of subsidies for farming to get to this point. It's hardly surprising that policies tend to support one particular method of farming - one that relies upon modern technologies to produce food.

At the University of Essex, we recently completed the first national study of the environmental and health impacts of modern farming. We looked at what are called "externalities" - the costs imposed by an activity that are borne by others. These costs are not part of the prices paid by producers or consumers. And when such externalities are not included in prices, they distort the market. They encourage activities that are costly to society even if the private benefits to farmers are substantial.

A heavy lorry that damages a bridge, or pollutes the atmosphere, externalizes some of its costs - and others pay for them. Similarly, a pesticide used to control a pest imposes costs on others if it leaks away from fields to contaminate drinking water. The types of externality encountered in the agricultural sector have four distinct features:

1. their costs are often neglected;

2. they often occur with a time lag;

3. they often damage groups whose interests are not represented; and

4. the identity of the producer of the externality is not always known.


Our study, published in the journal Agricultural Systems, sought to put a cost on these externalities in the UK. Although we recognized that there are some positive side-effects of conventional agriculture, we concentrated on the negative ones - in particular the environmental and health costs. See Table at http://www.resurgence.org/resurgence/issues/pretty205.htm .


Two types of damage cost were estimated:

1. the treatment or prevention costs incurred to clean up the environment and restore human health to comply with legislation or to return these to an undamaged state and

2. the administration costs incurred by public agencies for monitoring environmental, food and health implications.

We conservatively estimate that the total costs are GBP 2.34 billion for 1996 alone in the UK. Significant costs arise from contamination of drinking water with pesticides (GBP 120 million per year), nitrate (GBP 16 million), Cryptosporidium (GBP 23 million) and phosphate and soil (GBP 55 million), from damage to wildlife, habitats, hedgerows and drystone walls (GBP 124 million), from emissions of gases (GBP 1,113 million), from soil erosion and organic carbon losses (GBP 96 million), from food poisoning (GBP 169 million), and from BSE (GBP 607 million).

Water is an interesting case. 25 million kilograms of pesticides are used each year in farming - and some of these get into water. It costs water companies GBP 120 million each year to remove pesticides - not completely, but to a level stipulated in law as acceptable. Water companies do not pay this cost - they pass it on to those who pay water bills. This represents a hidden subsidy to those who pollute.

Some of the costs are straightforward to measure, others more difficult. How do we know about the effects of the greenhouse gases methane, nitrous oxide and carbon dioxide produced by farming? Economists have been able to put a GBP per tonne cost on these gases based on agreed estimates about the effects of future climate change. We have been very conservative, using lower estimates of costs. But still the costs are great.


Each of these costs should provoke questions about how they could be reduced or even removed. Take carbon for example. British soils have on average diminished in organic matter content by about a half in the past twenty years. Effectively, farmers have been converting the capital of soil fertility into the income of yields. This cannot go on forever. Worse is the conversion of the carbon in organic matter to carbon dioxide. However, farmers who farm to increase organic matter are creating a "positive externality". Every kilogram of carbon locked up in soil organic matter is one less in the atmosphere. Carbon sequestration may indeed become a key source of money for farmers. A group of Iowan farmers have just been paid several million dollars by Canadian utility companies to use their soils as a carbon sink. And soils with organic matter are better for farmers too.

There are still many gaps in the analysis. So, the true costs are likely to be higher. Some costs are known to be substantial underestimates (for example acute and chronic pesticide poisoning of humans; monitoring costs; eutrophication of reservoirs; restoration of all hedgerow losses). Other costs are limited to certain geographic areas of the UK (water company returns are for England and Wales only). Some costs cannot be calculated (for example dredging to maintain navigable water; flood defences; marine eutrophication; poisoning of domestic pets). In addition, treatment and prevention costs may be underestimates of the true costs. Similarly, the true costs of biodiversity loss are significantly underestimated. In this study we have included neither the cost of research nor public subsidy for farming, nor are the many environmental and social costs associated with getting food from the farm gate to consumers' plates.

So we actually pay three times for our food - once, over the counter; twice, through our taxes, which are used largely to support one type of farming; and thrice, to clean up the mess caused by this method.


Where does this leave us in policy terms? Already, we are beginning to think about the next round of Common Agricultural Policy reform in 2006. Is it conceivable that we could evolve sustainable agriculture systems that maximize their production of positive externalities - goods that the public enjoys and is willing to pay for - as well as minimizing the environmental and health costs?

The answer is clearly yes. We know enough about sustainable methods of farming to be confident. Now with these cost estimates, we can begin to identify priorities. But we need cost-effective ways of proceeding. Organic farming has substantially lower negative externalities than conventional farming. We roughly estimate these to be no more than a third - perhaps GBP 60 to GBP 70 per hectare. Organic farming also has higher positive externalities - the other side of the equation.

Equally, local food systems are a way forward. Jack Kloppenberg coined the term "foodshed". Foodsheds are defined as "self-reliant, locally or regionally based food systems comprised of diversified farms using sustainable practices to supply fresher, more nutritious foodstuffs to small-scale processors and consumers to whom producers are linked by the bonds of community as well as economy".

Foodsheds tend to do two things:

1. They shorten the chain from production to consumption - so eliminating some of the negative transport externalities;

2. They favour the production of positive externalities over negative ones, leading to the accumulation of renewable assets throughout the food system.


There are several practical ways to help such foodsheds to emerge:

* Enhance the direct links between producers and consumers - such as through farm shops, farmers' markets, community-supported agriculture, veg-box schemes and other forms of direct selling;

* Support local food shops - developing the interdependence of small retailers, producers and consumers creates a dense food web that provides more employment, good quality food and wider social benefits;

* Build community co-operatives as alternative structures for both producers and consumers - including the Japanese community sanchoku groups or Spanish co-operatives, such as the large Mondragon Co-operativa or smaller La Verde Oliva (a network of worker co-operatives and family-owned organic farms in Andalucia);

* Enhance home and urban food production - there are 300,000 allotments in the UK, covering some 12,000 hectares, yielding 215,000 tonnes of fresh produce every year, contributing some GBP 561 million in value to household consumption.


The substantial external costs of the modern agricultural and food system pose great challenges for policy makers, farmers, food companies and scientists. A range of policy reforms could do much to internalize some of these costs and benefits in prices. The challenge is to develop more sustainable farm practices that produce enough food as well as maximize the positive external benefits of agriculture. Attention needs to be paid to the social and institutional processes that encourage farmers to work and learn together. Policy integration is vital. In recent years, there have been an increasing number of policies seeking to link agriculture with more environmentally-sensitive management. These need to be strengthened.

In Europe, most stakeholders agree that the Common Agricultural Policy should be further reformed by decoupling payments from farm productivity. A policy that integrates support for farming together with rural development and environment could create new jobs, protect natural resources and support rural communities. Such reforms need to be supplemented with policy on regionalized food systems.

_____

Jules Pretty teaches at the University of Essex in Colchester. He is the author of The Living Land (Earthscan, 1998) and a government adviser. He will teach a course at Schumacher College (tel: 01803 865934) in November 2001.

http://www.resurgence.org/resurgence/issues/pretty205.htm


Bill Totten http://www.ashisuto.co.jp/english/index.html

Tuesday, April 10, 2007

Forests or Fuel?

The world's forests are natural carbon 'sinks' that remove and store atmospheric carbon dioxide. So why, in the name of saving the earth are we cutting down these precious resources to make way for fuel crops?

by Renton Righelato

The Ecologist (March 2007)


Most analyses of the benefits of biofuels focus chiefly on the crop/fuel cycle, ignoring the value of long term carbon 'sinks' such as forests and grasslands. Yet, to be comprehensive, our approach to climate change must also look at the alternative of maintaining or restoring these areas, compared to destroying them and turning them over to arable production of fuel crops.

When arable land is restored to forest instead of using it for biofuel production, carbon stores build up in the soil and vegetation and outweigh the emissions avoided by the production of biofuel (see illustration). Converting cropland to tropical forest can sequester twenty to thirty tonnes of carbon dioxide per hectare per year, two to threee times more than the emissions avoided by bioethanol derived from sugarcane. In temperate regions, forest regrowth is slower but the rates of carbon sequestration are still two to three times higher than the emissions avoided from biofuels produced from temperate crops. The sequestration rates fall as forests mature, but only after fifty to 100 years might the cumulative avoided emissions exceed the carbon sequestered by forest restoration.

Where, directly or indirectly, natural forests or grasslands are converted to arable land to permit the production of a fuel crop, the loss of carbon stored in the biosphere must be factored in. In the tropics, the amount of carbon released into the atmosphere in conversion of secondary forest to burnt cropland is approximately 600 tonnes of carbon per hectare; the conversion of primary and logged forest releases approximately 700 tonnes carbon per hectare. Most of this loss occurs through burning and bio degradation in the months following the initial clearance, and its impact on global carbon dioxide and warming is immediate.

Balancing this amount of carbon in the atmosphere with the emissions avoided through the use of biofuels would take thirty to fifty years. Furthermore, removal of forest cover to make way for biofuel crops may reduce downwind rainfall, causing a cascade of further forest loss, further reducing the biosphere's capacity to sequester carbon and accelerating warming.

Replacing diverse natural habitats with monocultures of arable crops drastically reduces the range of plants and animals that an area supports. This is particularly true in the tropics, where the forests are the most biologically diverse regions on the planet and where forest loss has already eliminated or endangered many species. Intensive agriculture also reduces amenity value: there is less countryside for people.

The next few decades are a window of opportunity for us to develop real low carbon societies. In this window, to minimise the net flux of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere, it is clearly better to maintain existing forests and regenerate forest on available arable land, rather than to produce biofuels from arable crops. Compared with large-scale use of bioethanol and biodiesel, this will result in lower atmospheric carbon dioxide levels and it will provide a larger more effective carbon sink for the future.

_____

Dr Renton Righelato is chair of the World Land Trust and a Visiting Research Fellow at the Environmental Systems Science Centre at the University of Reading.


Bill Totten http://www.ashisuto.co.jp/english/index.html

Monday, April 09, 2007

Against the Grain

Plant fuels can never meet our current and growing energy needs and adopting a 'carbohydrate economy' may prove disastrous for our farmers, our food supply and our future

by Robin Maynard

The Ecologist (March 2007)


Addressing the Conservative Party Conference in October 2006, the President of the National Farmers Union (NFU), Peter Kendall, was keen to impress upon delegates 'the key role' his members could play in tackling climate change. Referring to how the country's farmers kept Britain fed when imports were blocked by German U-Boats, Kendall declared: 'Not since the Second World War has our land, our farming and our farmers been so important as a resource'.

In particular, he banged the drum for the large-scale planting of biofuel crops - these being the familiar crops of oilseed rape, sugar-beet and wheat, but which, rather than being used as human or animal foodstuffs, would be processed into fuel, namely biodiesel or bioethanol.

In seeking to ally his members' interests to those of the newly carbon-conscious Conservatives, Kendall clearly sees an opportunity to revive the reputation and fortunes of UK farmers. For decades, UK farming has stood accused of all manner of ills - of producing surpluses that swallowed up vast subsidies from UK taxpayers; of then dumping these surpluses on world markets, undercutting prices and destroying the livelihoods of poor farmers in the developing world; and of all the while ploughing up wildflower-rich meadows, decimating insects and other wildlife through indiscriminate pesticide use, and polluting rivers and under ground aquifers with fertiliser run-off.

More accurately and justly, these ills should be laid at the door of the industrial end of agriculture and the agribusinesses constantly pushing the agrochemicals, pharmaceuticals and farm machinery that fuel intensive farming. Indeed, during those decades, it's not just wildlife, but hundreds of thousands of family farmers and farm-workers who have also disappeared from our farmland.

What a PR coup for the industrial farming lobby to now be seen as the good guys, making common cause with environmentalists to tackle climate change through the growing of 'green' energy crops. Farmers across the world who have seen the prices they receive for producing their crops fall relative to the costs of growing them, would have a new, booming market and they would be valued for producing something everybody needs: energy. Meanwhile, processors of crops for food oils and other industrial uses would gain a bigger, competitive market for their outputs. For local politicians, more crushing and refining plants equals more jobs.


Vested interests

Whatever the National Farmers Union's vested interest in pushing biofuels, the policy framework coming from the European Commission and UK government seems modest and reasonable. The EU Directive 'on the promotion of biofuels or other renewable fuels for transport' sets a target for member states to achieve a substitution of petrol and diesel with biofuels of 5.75 per cent by 2010, with an estimated maximum of around ten per cent by 2015.

Yet even meeting these targets will be near impossible, and indeed many member states, Britain among them, are already falling behind. Figures from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) show that Europe would need to convert more than seventy per cent of its total arable land to raise the proportion of biofuel currently used in road transport to a mere ten per cent.

In the UK, we currently use 37.6 million tonnes of petroleum products annually. To replace that with biodiesel from oilseed rape would require 25.9 million hectares of land - which is not only four and half times greater than our total current area of arable land (on which the first-generation biofuel crops of oilseed rape, sugar-beet and wheat would be grown), but also greater than the entire area of agricultural land in the UK (18.5 million hectares).

The story is the same in the USA. Despite turning 55 million tons of maize into bioethanol, equivalent to one sixth of the entire US corn harvest, this distils down to only enough biofuel to substitute for three per cent of current oil and diesel used in road transport.

The rich countries of Europe and the USA are also looking further afield in pursuit of the maximum economic gain. Malaysia and Indonesia have cleared huge swathes of rainforest - one of the world's most valuable resources for natural carbon storage and biodiversity - to plant oil palms for biofuel production. 'The demand for biofuel will come from the EU', Malaysian newspapers confidently report. The country now has over thirty refineries for producing biofuel from palm oil, including joint ventures with European-based companies, such as Dutch producers Biox, which have set up just across the North Sea in Rotterdam.

Friends of the Earth's 2005 report, The Oil for Ape Scandal - How palm oil is threatening the orang-utan, catalogues the environmental and human costs of the global biofuel market:

'Indonesia has one of the highest rates of tropical forest loss in the world, and illegal logging is rife. The island of Borneo, divided between Indonesia and Malaysia, has lost half its forest cover, while the smaller Indonesian island of Sumatra has lost more than seventy per cent. In Indonesia, the rate of deforestation has increased to two million hectares each year, an area of forest the size of Wales. A World Bank report has blamed commercial developments - especially oil palm plantations - for the acceleration. In Malaysia, the development of oil-palm plantations was responsible for 87 per cent of deforestation between 1985 and 2000. The palm-oil industry has set up 6.5 million hectares of oil-palm plantations across Sumatra and Borneo, but the destruction extends to over ten million hectares of rain forest. By 2020, Indonesia's oil-palm plantations are projected to triple in size to 16.5 million hectares - an area the size of England and Wales combined.'

Oil-palm plantations are estimated to be responsible for at least half of the observed loss of orang-utan habitat between 1992 and 2003. Furthermore, acording to Friends of the Earth, plantations are often forcibly established on land traditionally owned by indigenous peoples. In Indonesia, between 1998 and 2002 alone, 479 people were reported as having been tortured in conflicts defending community rights, and dozens of people have been killed in land-tenure disputes. No wonder rain forest campaigners call biofuel made from oil palm, 'deforestation diesel'.

On the other side of the world, Brazil, the world's largest sugar producer and exporter, is also far down the route of converting cropland and rain forest to biofuel production. Half of Brazil's sugar cane harvest goes to make bioethanol; while the ever-expanding area of soya-bean plantings, already a leading cause of rain forest destruction in the Brazilian Amazon, is being diverted to fuel production. According to Greenpeace, an estimated 1.2 million hectares of what used to be rain forest have already - mostly illegally - been destroyed to grow soya beans.


Going bust

Norfolk may seem a long way from Borneo and Brazil, but by joining the global rush to grow large-scale biofuel crops, UK farmers will, like any commodity producer, have to compete at world market prices; and the entry of another group of biofuel producers will only accelerate the intensity of that global market. A few huge-scale UK biofuel barons might be able to compete, but it's doubtful they will be that profitable, given that oil palm produces four times the biodiesel per hectare of oilseed rape, and is grown in countries where labour and life are cheap, and environmental restrictions limited or ignored.

From the UK to Indonesia, farmers will be forced into ever more cut-throat competition, forcing down prices and causing ever greater rain forest clearance as Indonesian and Malaysian producers scale up to cut costs. Indigenous peoples, orang-utans and a fair number of UK farmers will be tossed into the flames of that brutal competition. US soya-bean farmers felt the heat last year: despite winning a tax break from the government for growing soya beans for fuel, their prices were undercut just three months later when more than a quarter of a million gallons of biodiesel made from Ecuadorian palm oil was imported.

Far from improving fuel and food security at home or overseas, any massive planting of biofuel crops will further erode it. As oil becomes more expensive to extract, and the consequences of using it more damaging to our environment, we will need to reduce our reliance on long-distance, oil-hungry food imports and use our own farmland to feed people, not cars.

The European Commission by setting a 5.75 per cent target for biodiesel as part of the overall fuel mix and paying farmers an extra 45 Euros a hectare to grow them is encouraging the increased release of greenhouse gases due to the vast inputs of fertilizers derived from fossil fuel used to grow them, The UK government has compounded this environmental idiocy by cutting fuel duty on biodiesel by 20 pence a litre. Far from supporting a 'green energy crop', they are, in effect, exacerbating climate change by stealthily subsidising the use of fossil fuels.


New markets for old crops

We have to stop seeing biofuel crops as a new solution, and rather as old commodity crops in search of new markets. The two main biofuel crops promoted in the UK are oilseed rape and sugar-beet. As a source of human foodstuffs, oilseed rape has seen some decline in market demand as food processors and consumers take nutritionists' advice to avoid the hydrogenated fats that oilseed rape is used to produce.

The once booming sugar-beet industry has been a political sacrifice to the hugely popular 'Make Poverty History' campaign. The protected quotas for making white sugar inefficiently from a root vegetable grown in the temperate UK, have been stripped away as one of the concessions to bring greater trade justice to southern producers, who can grow sugar-cane far more cost-effectively.

The main processor for that now redundant sugar-beet, British Sugar, has, along with the National Farmers Union, been pushing for greater support for biofuels. In desperation at the closing of one market and anticipation of the opening of another, British Sugar is building a twenty million GBP processing plant at Wissington, Suffolk for turning 100,000 tonnes of sugar-beet and wheat into bioethanol.

This may be good news for the East Anglian sugar-beet barons and the Caribbean sugar cane farmers, no longer having to compete against subsidised white sugar on the global market, but the enterprise has more to do with saving British Sugar's business than the planet.

In a crisp critique of the East of England Development Agency's support for a UK bioethanol programme comprising twelve such processing plants, Sue Pollard of the Green Party noted that just one plant, processing 100,000 tonnes of sugar-beet and wheat annually, would require 35,000 hectares of crop land to supply. Given the spread of suitable arable land, this would have to be brought in from a catchment area of more than 24,000 square kilometres, by HGV lorries totting up three million miles annually, and belching out 36,000 tonnes of carbon dioxide in the process.


Feeding cars, not people

To date, the USA has provided seventy per cent of the world's grain exports. Now, countries dependent on US wheat and maize are getting nervous. Lester Brown of the US Earth Policy Institute gives a grim prediction: 'Simply put, the stage is being set for a head-on collision between the world's 800 million affluent automobile owners and food consumers'.

It may sound like far-fetched scaremongering to suggest that there could be a real conflict between the growing of crops to feed people and for fuel to feed cars. But the situation in other countries, far down the road in turning over their agricultural and previously uncultivated land to growing biofuel crops, suggests otherwise. 'Cars, not people, will claim most of the increase in world grain consumption this year', ran a headline on The Daily Telegraph's website, covering the US Department of Agriculture's projection that of the extra twenty million tons of wheat grown globally in 2006, fourteen million tons would go to producing bioethanol for use in American cars, with the remaining six million tons left to feed the world's growing numbers of hungry people.

Bioethanol plants for turning wheat and corn into fuel are being constructed across the US corn belt at an amazing rate, with 55 built or planned in Iowa alone. Over fifty per cent of all corn grown in South Dakota, one of the top ten growing States, is already being diverted into making fuel for cars. This trend is worrying US livestock producers and food processors. That might be beneficial if it forced factory-farms to shift to more extensive, natural grazing systems and food and drink processors to rely less on corn-syrup and other food and drink bulking additives.

But it's not just animal feed-lot and big food businesses that are feeling the pinch. As the price of corn and wheat rises due to increased competition between the US fuel and food markets, staple foods like bread become more expensive and less grain is available for export and as food aid.

Most recently, the competition between food and fuel in the UK was heightened, with the announcement that the goverment would end subsidies for food production crops by 2020 and replace these with subsidies for what environment minister David Miliband called 'environmental security' - tackling global warming through the growing of energy crops, protecting the landscape and reducing methane emissions.

It makes no difference if large areas of our prime food producing land are turned over to fuel crops, compelling us to buy in food from the world market - or if homegrown food security is sustained while other countries, such as Africa, are encouraged to grow our fuel. Either way, relying more on imports of food or fuel is not sustainable and contradicts the objective of curbing the greenhouse-gas-generating food and fuel miles inherent in those imports.

This increased competition between food and fuel use coincides with world grain stocks standing at their lowest level, and at a time when world population growth brings 75 million more mouths to feed each year. The heat waves in 2006 reduced both US and European harvests. This, combined with existing low global grain stocks and the increasing demand for wheat and maize for biofuel production, caused prices to rocket. With wheat prices now hitting a ten-year high, millers are predicting a knock-on hike in the cost of a loaf of bread.

Today, only in wealthy countries can most consumers afford to feed both themselves and their cars. Yet in the face of global climate change, it will become increasingly difficult to avoid the choice between fuel or food even in the West. As we consider whether to fill our bellies or our motorways it's worth considering this: the grain needed to fill a typical Sun's 25-gallon tank with bioethanol would feed one person for a year.

_____

Robin Maynard was co-ordinator of the family farming body, FARM and is currently Head of Communications for the Soil Association. This article is written in a personal capacity.


Bill Totten http://www.ashisuto.co.jp/english/index.html

Upscale restaurants shun bottled water

by Michelle Locke, Associated Press Writer

Associated Press (March 29 2007)


Bye-bye bottled water. Hello eau de tap. A new trend is in the pipeline, with some upscale restaurants ditching packaged H2O in the name of conservation.

The bottled water backlash, which recently spread to the venerable Chez Panisse restaurant in Berkeley, is spurred by environmental concerns over the energy used in transportation as well as the disposal of all those containers.

"We just decided this was something we had to do", said Mike Kossa-Rienzi, general manager of Chez Panisse, where owner Alice Waters has pioneered the eat local, eat fresh concept. "It just makes sense to us to not have to use all the energy and resources to bottle water in Italy and then truck it to our restaurant and then after that deal with the recycling of it".

Chez Panisse stopped serving bottled non-sparkling water last year and expects to stop serving bottled carbonated water in a few weeks, just as soon as the restaurant's new carbonator is installed, said Kossa-Rienzi, who visited a San Francisco restaurant, Incanto, to see how it made the switch some years ago.

Across the San Francisco Bay at Poggio in Sausalito, Larry Mindel has been serving filtered tap water - he has a machine that filters and carbonates - since the restaurant opened in 2003.

Environmental concerns are one factor. Another is price. Even though he could charge diners double or triple what he pays for water, he said it gives him a "stab" to pay so much - or charge others - for something that falls from the sky.

"Haven't you gone to a restaurant and they just expect you to order two or three bottles of water and it's $27 by the time you're done?" he said. "I just thought that from a consumer's point of view that they were getting shortchanged".

While lots of restaurants serve tap water, the trend of upscale places going exclusively to tap appears to be new, said Gigi Kellett, associate campaigns director for Corporate Accountability International, a Boston-based group that is campaigning against bottled water as privatizing a public resource.

Not surprisingly, the notion of giving up the bottle fizzled with the International Bottled Water Association, based in Alexandria, Virginia. Spokesman Stephen Kay argued the switch wouldn't have that big of a conservation impact and restricts customer choices.

On the other hand, Susan Leal, general manager of the San Francisco Public Utilities Commission, said the switch will let city water shine.

"They're taking a step against the, I believe, deception that's going on out there, which is that somehow bottled water is superior to tap water", Leal said.

Switching to municipal water can put a damper on profits since there's a healthy markup on bottled water - no sommelier savvy required.

Back when he banned the bottle, Mindel recalls other restaurateurs raised their eyebrows and asked if he knew what he was doing. In fact, said Mindel, he did.

"It's not like we've got bad water here. Our water's terrific", Mindel said. "I don't think we've had one single person that's said, 'Oh, can't you bring me Perrier'."

Customer Joan Nitis certainly endorsed the no-bottle approach Wednesday as she lunched at Poggio with Anita Pira.

"I love that", she said. "Usually I don't have water in a restaurant, but here I do. It's just refreshing."

Pira appreciated not having to pay extra for water.

"We can buy more wine", she said with a smile.

___


On the Net:

Corporate Accountability International: http://www.stopcorporateabuse.org

International Bottled Water Association: http://www.bottledwater.org

Copyright (c) 2007 The Associated Press. All rights reserved.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070329/ap_on_bi_ge/bottled_water_backlash_1


Bill Totten http://www.ashisuto.co.jp/english/index.html

Sunday, April 08, 2007

Biofuels - facts and fiction

The claims made for biofuels make it seem truly a wonder crop. Mark Anslow separates the wheat from the chaff.

by Mark Anslow

The Ecologist (March 2007)



Claim One - You get more out than you put in ...

For more than fifteen years, David Pimentel, Professor of Ecology and Agriculture at Cornell University in New York, and his colleague, Professor Tad Patzek at Berkeley, have published peer-reviewed research showing that biofuels give out less energy when burnt than was used in their manufacture.

By using a 'cradle to grave' approach - measuring all the energy inputs to the production of ethanol from the production of nitrogen fertiliser, through to the energy required to clean up the waste from bio-refineries - they have shown that while it takes 6,597 kilocalories of nonrenewable energy to produce a litre of ethanol from corn, that same litre contains only 5,130 kilocalories of energy - a 22 percent loss.

Their work has been fiercely attacked by the biofuel lobby, who argue that Pimentel and Patzek include too many 'energy input' costs, and fail to give credit to the other, useful 'co-products' created in the process of refining biofuel.

Neither objection stands up under closer scrutiny. In fact, corn uses more herbicides, insecticides and fertiliser than any other crop; and 99 per cent of all cornfields used for producing bioethanol are heavily fertilised with nitrogen.

Pimentel and Patzek have shown that although the energy costs involved with fertiliser production have fallen, most of the factories producing nitrate fertiliser in the USA today were built in the 1960s and are highly inefficient. As such, they estimate that the energy costs of nitrogen fertiliser manufacture account for over thirty per cent of the total energy needed to grow corn. When the energy costs of labour, machinery, petrol and diesel, other fertilisers, herbicides, insecticides and corn seed production are figured into the equation, merely growing corn using intensive agriculture accounts for 38 percent of the energy needed to produce a litre of ethanol.

To make their energy costs appear more favourable, proponents of biofuels frequently 'off set' the energy value of other substances produced during the refining process against the total energy used to produce the fuel. For bioethanol, these co-products include animal feed and carbon dioxide gas. For biodiesel, they include animal feed and glycerine, a component of soap. They argue that, by calculating the energy that would have been required to produce these substances by themselves, the amount of energy accounted for in the biofuel production process can be reduced. In some studies, the energy value of co-products has been calculated at 150 per cent more than the energy required to produce the fuel.

But the energy and monetary value of these co-products is highly subjective. In the UK, the production of glycerine, which biodiesel producers had hoped to sell to cosmetics companies to offset the costs of production, has reached such levels that supply is exceeding demand. Some refiners have been forced to simply burn it. In the US, the value of the grains left over after ethanol distillation has been much touted as an animal feed. But research has shown that this grain contains less energy than normal animal feed (usually made from much less fertiliser-intensive soya), and that production of soya has not fallen as ethanol production has risen, indicating that livestock farmers have been reluctant to change the their animals' diet and use the new feed. David Morris, a biofuel lobbyist, has even admitted that it may benefit refiners more to burn the animal feed as fuel than to sell it.

Some ethanol distilleries have bottled the carbon dioxide that is given off during the fermentation process and sold it to carbonated drinks manufacturers, counting the value of the by-product against their overall energy costs. Most, however, have not.

Energy offset benefits can only be counted if the co-products are genuinely used in substitute for another product. Refining ethanol produces roughly equal parts ethanol, carbon dioxide and animal feed. Given that US corn-based ethanol production in 2005 peaked at 16.2 billion litres, this means that an almost equivalent amount of co-products (by volume) must have been produced. If these products are, as market figures suggest, unwanted, then instead of providing a useful 'offset', they are set to become a serious waste problem.


Claim Two - It makes economic sense

In 2006, the American government handed out between $5.1 and $6.8 billion in ethanol subsidies. These include payments made to farmers, tax breaks given to refiners and payments made under carbon reduction programmes. But instead of these subsidies finding their way into farmers' pockets, they are instead swelling the accounts of several large biofuel manufacturers.

One company, Archer Daniel Midlands, one of the world's largest agribusiness companies, accounted for nearly 28 per cent of the US ethanol industry in 2006.

According to attorney Arnold Reitze, Professor of Environmental Law at George Washington University Law School, every dollar of Archer Daniel Midlands's profit has cost US taxpayers $30. To ensure the continuation of ethanol subsidies, the Renewable Fuels Association, of which Archer Daniel Midlands is a member, had reportedly contributed $772,000 to Republican coffers between 1991 and 1992.

Biofuels have already been taken out of the hands of farmers and turned into big business. Where the demand for ethanol has benefited corn farmers, it has done so only at the expense of cattle farmers, for whom the cost of animal feed has vastly increased. Ethanol production from corn has been estimated to add $1 billion to the cost of beef production.

In the USA, a litre of petrol costs roughly 33 cents to produce; a litre of ethanol can cost up to $1.88. At present, these differentials are disguised behind subsidies, tax breaks, levies and laws. Germany subsidises biofuels to the value of 47 cents per litre, and France to the value of 33 cents per litre.

In his recent pre-Budget report, Gordon Brown reduced the tax on UK blended biofuels from 53 pence per litre to eight pence per litre. In Brazil, although subsidies of ethanol officially ended in the mid-1990s, a number of 'incentives' still exist. Personal diesel-engined vehicles have been banned, to encourage the uptake of ethanol burning models, despite the greater fuel economies of many diesel cars. In addition, new 'flex-fuel' cars - models that can run on both ethanol and petrol - have been made available at a reduced rate of VAT.

Behind this raft of measures, it is difficult to see whether biofuels could ever compete with fossil fuels without continued subsidies, covert or otherwise. It is important to remember exactly what is being subsidised as well - excessive motor transport. As Michael O'Hare, Professor of Public Policy at UC Berkeley, pointed out in a recent article: 'Driving your car with a gallon of ethanol doesn't do fifty cents worth of good for society, it just does less damage than driving it with gasoline'.


Claim Three - It is the solution to our energy problems

Recent figures show that if high-yield bio-energy crops were grown on all the farmland on earth, the resulting fuel would account for only twenty percent of our current demand. The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) published research which shows that more than seventy per cent of Europe's farmland would be required for biofuel crops to account for even ten per cent of road transport fuel.

But there are more basic reasons why biofuels cannot be the answer to our energy problems. A normal petrol engine cannot run on more than a fifteen per cent ethanol blend, and it is considered too expensive to modify a car after manufacture. Given that the average life expectancy of a vehicle is fourteen years, it would take approximately this long to replace the current petrol fleet. By 2021, however, it could already be too late to make a difference to serious global warming.

The European Union Biofuels Directive requires that all EU member states have a blend of 5.75 per cent biofuel in their road transport fuels by 2010. However, a litre of biodiesel contains twelve per cent less chemical energy than an equivalent litre of mineral diesel, and is five per cent less fuel-efficient when burnt in an engine. A litre of ethanol contains 33 per cent less energy than a litre of petrol, and a blend of 85 per cent ethanol to fifteen per cent petrol (known as E85) can see vehicle fuel consumption rise by 31 per cent. The UK uses approximately 26 billion litres of petrol each year. If this were to be blended with 5.75 per cent bioethanol, the net energy contained in a litre of pump fuel would drop by approximately two per cent. In addition, ethanol blended fuels cannot be transported by pipeline, as the ethanol attracts water, which would render it ineffective as a fuel. It must, therefore, be transported by road. This means that an extra 521.5 million litres of fuel would need to be transported annually to make up for the energy deficit - equivalent to an extra 16,478 tanker journeys in the UK each year, which could increase the carbon emissions involved in distribution from refinery to tanker terminals by 38 percent.


Claim Four - It's clean and safe

The biofuels ethanol and biodiesel are often referred to as 'clean-burning' fuels, and much has been made of their lower emissions of carbon monoxide. However, analyses of exhaust emissions from cars burning ethanol show an increase in nitrogen oxides, acetaldehyde and peroxy-acetyl-nitrate.

Likewise, cars burning biodiesel have been shown to emit higher levels of nitrogen oxides than those burning mineral diesel. Nitrous oxides are powerful greenhouse gases and can lead to the depletion of atmospheric ozone. At low levels they can react with volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and create low-level ozone, which can give rise to urban smog and respiratory problems.

When ethanol is blended with gasoline it makes the entire fuel more volatile. This means that it is more likely to evaporate, especially in the summer, through rubber and plastic parts of the fuel system. A study by the California Air Quality Board in 2004 found that blending ethanol with petrol increased fuel evaporation by fourteen to eighteen per cent. This means a higher quantity of hydrocarbon and nitrogen oxide emissions, as the fuel dissipates from vehicle tanks.

Ethanol is a solvent, and corrodes soft metals including aluminium, zinc, brass and lead. This means that existing underground storage tanks designed for fossil fuels and made from metal or even fibreglass could leak if filled with ethanol-blended fuel, leaching pollutants into groundwater. If this happens there is evidence that pollution would be even more widespread with a petrol-ethanol blend than with petrol alone. The presence of ethanol in the mix increases the persistence of the toxic substances benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene and xylene, and can cause them to travel 2.5 times farther in groundwater than would have been the case with a non-ethanol blended fuel.

Biodiesel is also a natural solvent, whereas mineral diesel is not. This means that parts of the fuel system, particularly in older cars, may start to corrode when biodiesel blends are used. This can lead to a build-up of deposits in the fuel system and engine, which in turn could reduce vehicle performance and increase fuel consumption.

Biodiesel also solidifies at around four to five degrees Celsius. This means that it must be pre-heated on cold winter mornings before it will flow from the tank. One biodiesel information website recommends the use of highly toxic 'anti-gelling' compounds mixed in with the fuel-or a 'heated garage'. It is this kind of solution that typifies the utter dependence of biofuels upon the continuing extravagant use of fossil energy.


Claim Five - It's good for the environment

A bio-refinery is an extraordinarily wasteful facility. For every litre of bioethanol produced in a modern refinery, thirteen litres of waste water are generated. This waste water contains dead yeast and small amounts of ethanol, and has what is known as a Biological Oxgen Demand (BOD) - which means that the effluent competes with various other organisms in the water for available oxygen.

If effluent with a BOD is discharged into a watercourse, microorganisms in the water use oxygen in the water to break down, or oxidise, the pollutants, thus making the oxygen less available for other species. In extreme cases, fish and other aquatic organisms can suffocate from lack of oxygen.

The BOD of raw sewage is around 600 milligrams per litre; that of bio-refinery waste water can be between 18,000 and 37,000 milligrams per litre. This must be treated before it can leave the refinery, which requires an energy input of around 69,000 kilocalories, roughly equivalent to 306.7 cubic feet of natural gas per 1,000 litres of ethanol produced.

In sugarcane ethanol plants, which are particularly common in Brazil, twelve cubic feet of a thick, dark red, acid substance called 'vinasse' is left behind for every cubic foot of ethanol that has been produced. It is piped from the refinery to settlement ponds, where it is allowed to cool. If vinasse is left in the pools, anaerobic breakdown will lead to the production of methane, a greenhouse gas.

Some refinery operators have chosen to dilute vinasse at a ratio of up to 1:400 with water for use as a fertiliser on the sugarcane plantations. But it is so potent that the soil has to be carefully monitored to make sure that plants are not scorched or waterways polluted. Some farmers have used vinasse as a 'binding agent' on gravel drives, only to find that it corrodes the underside of vehicles that frequently drive over it.

Ethanol refineries also produce significant amounts of nitrous oxides (a greenhouse gas more than 300 times more potent that carbon dioxide), carbon monoxide and volatile organic compounds (also linked to the destruction of the ozone layer and damage to human health). Their emissions are so high that in March 2006, the Environmental Protection Agency in the USA was forced under political pressure from the biofuels lobby to propose raising the threshold for facilities considered to be 'minor source of emissions' from 100 tons per year to 250 tons per year.

_____

Mark Anslow is a reporter for The Ecologist. An annotated version of this article is available on our website, http://www.theecologist.org/archive_detail.asp?content_id=755



Bill Totten http://www.ashisuto.co.jp/english/index.html

Saturday, April 07, 2007

Social Ecology

Prozac or park benches

Ecology isn't just about the natural world. It's about the world we all live in, wherever that might be.

by Jonathan Rowe

The Ecologist (April 2007)


There is an empty lot on the main street in my town, next to the bakery, a local hang-out. For years, people have talked about buying it to create a space for people to come and gather. But recently a friend and I said, 'Why wait?' We fixed up a couple of old benches and set them away from the street, under a tree, which seemed vaguely park-like. Within a week, people had moved the benches right up to the pavement, which is where they have stayed ever since.

Not long after the bench-moving, I happened upon a book called The Social Life of Public Spaces by William H Whyte {1}. Whyte spent much of his life studying how people use such spaces. He found that there are recurring patterns, a kind of economy of human interaction. Among other things, people like to sit near the flow of life, rather than in secluded corners - which is exactly what had happened in our commons.

This is not so surprising, really. We humans are social creatures. We like to be around other people - at least, most of us do - even if it is the anonymous buzz of a coffee shop. This disposition shows itself in many ways, from the dance of street crossing at crowded intersections, to the mutual help of neighbours and friends. Given a half hospitable setting, it can be generative in much the way that nature is - a kind of parallel economy that meets real needs; increasingly, the most pressing ones.

But this productivity is invisible to most economists, and thus to the media and policy establishments, because it is not transacted through the medium of money and price. As with its natural counterpart, this invisibility has made the social commons vulnerable to invasion, expropriation, degradation and neglect. The spontaneous sociability of high streets is easy prey for anonymous chain stores; cell phones and iPods easily displace serendipitous encounters on trains and buses (while making these places into insufferable noise holes); and on and on.

The same corporate forces that have degraded the ecosystem have attacked its social counterpart. The result has been a breakdown of community, and loneliness and isolation that are epidemic in this hyper-wired age. There is a vicious spiral, a kind of social equivalent of compound interest. People need more money to replace the supports and capacities they have lost; so the corporate economy must churn ever faster, and the assault on nature escalates. Meanwhile, the policy establishment cheers because the GDP is going up.

Ecological economics, so-called, tries to address this by rafting 'correct pricing' onto the conventional model. Make corporations pay for the muck they disgorge and the market will work as advertised. It is a useful idea as far as it goes. But how far is that?

Wal-Mart could adhere to the most stringent green codes and still be a plague to the social ecology of the main streets it displaces. Green Ritalin might spare the ecosystem, but the social pathologies that lead to drugging kids to keep them quiet in school would remain.

Ecological economics is necessary but not sufficient. It needs a complementary model that works outside the market and which produces what that market can't, and which it increasingly tends to destroy.

Which brings us back to the benches, and whatever it is in human nature that causes people to want to put them near the sidewalk. That instinct, as mentioned, takes a multitude of forms. It even drives much of the activity in the market itself - not greed, and certainly not need, but a simple desire to be engaged with other people. What today we call 'the market' actually began as fairs and gatherings in the plazas next to churches. The social occasion came first; the calculus of gain glommed on to it later.

Today, however, the corporate economy has cannibalised the social commons that spawned it - sucked out the core, and left a giant feedlot and financial casino in its place. That's what happens when a Wal-Mart kills a town centre, or a Starbucks drives out the local coffee shop. They are like economic neutron bombs: the community goes but the stuff remains.

The result is we buy more to fill the void. Development patterns have fed this syndrome, enclosing us in cars, cut off from the sociability that once was built into daily life. It is not surprising that so many of us feel isolated and alone in this most 'connected' of ages. (USA Today reported some 25 per cent of Americans feel they have no one they can confide in.) Is it entirely accidental that the use of antidepressant drugs is soaring, along with - and as part of - the rising GDP? Pharmaceutical companies want to blame our biochemistry, but there is more to it than that.

Why, for example, is it 'economic' when a plumber fixes a leak, but not when a neighbour does so? Why do counselling and Prozac count, but not the informal daily interactions that might reduce the need for these? There is no reason, besides the astigmatism of the conventional economic mind. We are told we are nostalgics for believing such things. To entertain the thought that a prior state of affairs might have had advantages over the current one is to be deemed psycho - emotionally deficient.

Yet take a hard look around you. What are the greatest needs you see - for more stuff, or more community? Which would do more for your life: a high definition television, or a good neighbour?

We face what my friend Edgar Chan calls a 'hidden rustbelt' of extended family, neighbourhood and community. Nobody knows, for example, who is going to care for our ageing population. The debate over public versus private is beside the point; there will not be enough money either way.

Volunteer fire departments in the USA are withering for lack of volunteers. It has become increasingly hard to get people to staff polling places during elections. The true nostalgics today are the economists who believe that yesterday is forever and that stuff alone can do the job. Human needs are different today than they were two centuries ago; increasingly we need - socially as well as ecologically - the very things the corporate market has been destroying in the name of making life better.

Something in human nature, however, has been activated in recent years, almost like an antibody. It is evident in the increasing efforts to resist the transgressions upon the non-market economy of the commons; and also to rebuild it. The campaigns against Wal-Mart, for example, are not just the anti-corporate reflexes that critics assume. They are efforts to protect the social ecology of traditional main streets and the hidden productivity they include.

So too with the Buy-Local campaigns, which are spreading across the UK and USA; and the farmers' markets, which are not just about food, but even more about the social content that has been stripped away from food. There is a long list of kindred efforts, from community gardens and the recreating of public spaces, to municipal WiFi and slow food.
In some cities, neighbours are reclaiming back alleys from drug dealers and rubbish and turning them into protected commons for residents of the block.

A real dynamic is at work here; and also real enterprise, a questing and inventive spirit. The Time Dollar movement is spreading rapidly in the USA, UK and beyond. The concept is simple: time spent helping a neighbour in need earns a credit for every hour offered, regardless of the service; the neighbour helped is debited one credit that they earned by helping someone else. A computer program helps to schedule services and keep track of the credits and debits. Time Dollars is providing a currency tailored for the social economy, in which the aim is reciprocity rather than gain.

Until recently, such efforts could be dismissed as eccentric. Farmers' markets and alternative currencies did not seem poised to shake the world. Yet now the social dynamic that animates them is finding expression in a potent and unlikely place - high tech, which has become both a medium and a metaphor for the larger changes that are emerging.

This is not entirely the case. High tech invades the commons in a multitude of ways, from the noise of phones to the over - reaching of the intellectual property laws that make sharing music a crime. Yet look at the other side. Generative communities such as Wikipedia and Linux are producing software and knowledge in open and cooperative ways that defy the supposed laws of economics. No property rights? No monetary 'incentive'? According to the economic rules it should be impossible.

Yet here they are, because people get a kick out of producing things together, much as they instinctively move benches near the pavement to be in the flow of life. The seed of a new economics is here; not because people are heroically altruistic, but because they have a capacity to perceive their needs and do that which meets them. Along with nature, it will be the factory of the future; not replacing the corporate version, but existing alongside it and serving as a boundary to its transgressions.

When advocates of an open internet and oceans, wilderness and public spaces, grasp that they are talking about aspects of the same thing, then there will be an economic movement that is truly formidable. They will have a story that can stand against the romance of the market and finally eclipse it.


Note:

{1} http://www.pps.org/info/placemakingtools/placemakers/wwhyte

_____

Jonathan Rowe is a senior fellow at Redefining Progress http://www.rprogress.org


Bill Totten http://www.ashisuto.co.jp/english/index.html

Friday, April 06, 2007

Frequently Asked Questions about Global Warming

Union of Concerned Scientists

Citizens and Scientists for Environmental Solutions

www.ucsusa.org (March 08 2007)



1. What does the greenhouse effect have to do with global warming?
2. What is causing global warming?
3. What is the best source of scientific information on global warming?
4. Is global warming already happening?
5. Are humans contributing to global warming?
6. How much warmer is the Earth likely to become?
7. Would a temperature rise of a couple degrees really change the global climate?
8. Is global warming connected to the hole in the ozone layer?
9. Is there anything we can do about global warming?
10. Will responding to global warming be harmful to our economy?
11. More questions?



1. What does the greenhouse effect have to do with global warming?

The "greenhouse effect" refers to the natural phenomenon that keeps the Earth in a temperature range that allows life to flourish. The sun's enormous energy warms the Earth's surface and its atmosphere. As this energy radiates back toward space as heat, a portion is absorbed by a delicate balance of heat-trapping gases in the atmosphere - among them carbon dioxide and methane - which creates an insulating layer. With the temperature control of the greenhouse effect, the Earth has an average surface temperature of fifteen degrees Celsius. Without it, the average surface temperature would be minus eighteen degrees Celsius, a temperature so low that the Earth would be frozen and could not sustain life.

"Global warming" refers to the rise in the Earth's temperature resulting from an increase in heat-trapping gases in the atmosphere.


2. What is causing global warming?

Scientists have concluded that human activities are contributing to global warming by adding large amounts of heat-trapping gases to the atmosphere. Our fossil fuel use is the main source of these gases. Every time we drive a car, use electricity from coal-fired power plants, or heat our homes with oil or natural gas, we release carbon dioxide and other heat-trapping gases into the air. The second most important source of greenhouse gases is deforestation, mainly in the tropics, and other land-use changes.

Since pre-industrial times, the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide has increased by 31 percent. Over the same period, atmospheric methane has risen by 151 percent, mostly from agricultural activities like growing rice and raising cattle.

As the concentration of these gases grows, more heat is trapped by the atmosphere and less escapes back into space. This increase in trapped heat changes the climate, causing altered weather patterns that can bring unusually intense precipitation or dry spells and more severe storms.

Related links:

General emissions information
http://yosemite.epa.gov/oar/globalwarming.nsf/content/Emissions.html

Past emissions trends
http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/110.htm#351#351

Emissions trends in the United States
http://yosemite.epa.gov/oar/globalwarming.nsf/content/emissionsindividual.html

International emissions trends
http://yosemite.epa.gov/oar/globalwarming.nsf/content/EmissionsInternational.html



3. What is the best source of scientific information on global warming?

In 1988, the United Nations Environment Programme and the World Meteorological Organization set up the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to examine the most current scientific information on global warming and climate change. More than 1,250 authors and 2,500 scientific experts reviewers from more than 130 countries contributed to the panel's most recent report, Climate Change 2007: The Fourth Assessment Report (the full report will be released in November 2007). These scientists reviewed all the published and peer-reviewed scientific information produced during the previous few years to assess what is known about the global climate, why and how it changes, what it will mean for people and the environment, and what can be done about it.

The IPCC Fourth Assessment Report is the most comprehensive and up-to-date evaluation of global warming. As the new benchmark, it serves as the basis for international climate negotiations.

Related links:

IPCC Highlights-Climate Science
http://www.ucsusa.org/global_warming/science/ipcc-highlights1.html

IPCC Backgrounder
http://www.ucsusa.org/global_warming/science/the-ipcc.html

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
http://www.ipcc.ch/



4. Is global warming already happening?

Yes. The IPCC concluded in its Third Assessment Report, "An increasing body of observations gives a collective picture of a warming world and other changes in the climate system". The kinds of changes already observed that create this consistent picture include the following:

Examples of observed climatic changes

* Increase in global average surface temperature of about 0.6 degrees Celsius in the 20th century

* Decrease of snow cover and sea ice extent and the retreat of mountain glaciers in the latter half of the 20th century

* Rise in global average sea level and the increase in ocean water temperatures

* Likely increase in average precipitation over the middle and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, and over tropical land areas

* Increase in the frequency of extreme precipitation events in some regions of the world

Examples of observed physical and ecological changes

* Thawing of permafrost

* Lengthening of the growing season in middle and high latitudes

* Poleward and upward shift of plant and animal ranges

* Decline of some plant and animal species

* Earlier flowering of trees

* Earlier emergence of insects

* Earlier egg-laying in birds


Related links:

Observed Climate Variability and Change
http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/index.htm

Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability to Climate Change
http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg2/index.htm



5. Are humans contributing to global warming?

In 1995, the world's climate experts in the IPCC concluded for the first time in a cautious consensus, "The balance of evidence suggests that there is a discernible human influence on the global climate".

In its 2001 assessment, the IPCC strengthened that conclusion considerably, saying, "There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last fifty years is attributable to human activities".

Scientists have found significant evidence that leads to this conclusion:

* The observed warming over the past 100 years is unlikely to be due to natural causes alone; it was unusual even in the context of the last 1,000 years.

* There are better techniques to detect climatic changes and attribute them to different causes.

* Simulations of the climate's response to natural causes (sun, volcanoes, et cetera) over the latter half of the 20th century alone cannot explain the observed trends.

* Most simulation models that take into account greenhouse gas emissions and sulphate aerosols (which have a cooling effect) are consistent with observations over the last fifty years.

Related link:

Climate Change 2001: The Scientific-Basis - Policymaker Summary (pdf)
http://www.ipcc.ch/pub/spm22-01.pdf



6. How much warmer is the Earth likely to become?

The IPCC's Third Assessment Report projects that the Earth's average surface temperature will increase between 1.4 and 5.8 degrees Celsius between 1990 and 2100 if no major efforts are undertaken to reduce the emissions of greenhouse gases (the "business as usual" scenario). This is significantly higher than what the Panel predicted in 1995 (1.0 to 3.5 degrees Celsius), mostly because scientists expect a reduced cooling effect from tiny particles (aerosols) in the atmosphere.

Scientists predict that even if we stopped emitting heat-trapping gases immediately, the climate would not stabilize for many decades because the gases we have already released into the atmosphere will stay there for years or even centuries. So while the warming may be lower or increase at a slower rate than predicted if we reduce emissions significantly, global temperatures cannot quickly return to today's averages. And the faster and more the Earth warms, the greater the chances are for some irreversible climate changes.

Related links:

View past global temperature trends
http://www.ipcc.ch/

View US and global climatic trends
http://yosemite.epa.gov/OAR/globalwarming.nsf/content/ClimateTrends.html

Latest IPCC (WG I) projections
http://www.ipcc.ch/



7. Would a temperature rise of a couple degrees really change the global climate?

An increase of a few degrees won't simply make for pleasantly warmer temperatures around the globe. Even a modest rise of 1.1 to 1.7 degrees Celsius could have dramatic effects. In the last 10,000 years, the Earth's average temperature hasn't varied by more than one degree Celsius. Temperatures only one to five degrees Celsius cooler than those today prevailed at the end of the last Ice Age, in which the Northeast United States was covered by more than 3,000 feet of ice.

Scientists predict that continued global warming on the order of 1.5 to 6.2 degrees Celsius over the next 100 years (as projected in the IPCC's Third Assessment Report) is likely to result in:

* a rise in sea level between nine and 88 centimeters, leading to more coastal erosion, flooding during storms, and permanent inundation

* severe stress on many forests, wetlands, alpine regions, and other natural ecosystems

* greater threats to human health as mosquitoes and other disease-carrying insects and rodents spread diseases over larger geographical regions

* disruption of agriculture in some parts of the world due to increased temperature, water stress, and sea-level rise in low-lying areas such as Bangladesh or the Mississippi River delta.

Related links:

Potential impacts on the US
http://www.climatehotmap.org/impacts

Worldwide early warning signs
http://www.climatehotmap.org/



8. Is global warming connected to the hole in the ozone layer?

Global warming and ozone depletion are two separate but related threats. Global warming and the greenhouse effect refer to the warming of the lower part of the atmosphere (also known as the troposphere) due to increasing concentrations of heat-trapping gases. By contrast, the ozone hole refers to the loss of ozone in the upper part of the atmosphere, called the stratosphere. This is of serious concern because stratospheric ozone blocks incoming ultraviolet radiation from the sun, some of which is harmful to plants, animals, and humans.

The two problems are related in a number of ways, including:

* Some human-made gases, called chlorofluorocarbons, trap heat and destroy the ozone layer. Currently, these gases are responsible for less than ten percent of total atmospheric warming, far less than the contribution from the main greenhouse gas, carbon dioxide.

* The ozone layer traps heat, so if it gets destroyed, the upper atmosphere actually cools, thereby offsetting part of the warming effect of other heat-trapping gases. But that's no reason to rejoice: the cooling of the upper layers of the atmosphere can produce changes in the climate that affect weather patterns in the higher latitudes.

* Trapping heat in the lower part of the atmosphere allows less heat to escape into space and leads to cooling of the upper part of the atmosphere. The colder it gets, the greater the destruction of the protective ozone layer.

Reducing ozone-depleting gases is crucial to preventing further destruction of the ozone layer, but eliminating these gases alone will not solve the global warming problem. On the other hand, efforts to reduce all types of emissions to limit global warming will also be good for the recovery of the ozone layer.

Related links:

Kyoto Protocol (greenhouse gases)
http://unfccc.int/resource/convkp.html

Montreal Protocol (ozone)
http://www.unep.org/ozone/montreal.shtml



9. Is there anything we can do about global warming?

Yes! The most important action we can take to slow global warming is to reduce emissions of heat-trapping gases. Governments, individuals, and businesses can all help.

Governments can adopt a range of options for reducing greenhouse gas emissions, including

* increasing energy efficiency standards

* encouraging the use of renewable energy sources (such as wind and solar power)

* eliminating subsidies that encourage the use of coal and oil by making them artificially cheap

* protecting and restoring forests, which serve as important storehouses of carbon


Individuals can reduce the need for fossil fuels and often save money by

* driving less and driving more fuel-efficient and less-polluting cars

* using energy-efficient appliances

* insulating homes

* using less electricity in general


Businesses can increase efficiency and save substantial sums by doing the same things on a larger scale. And utilities can avoid building expensive new power plants by encouraging and helping customers to adopt efficiency measures.

Related links:

Personal global warming solutions
http://www.ucsusa.org/global_warming/solutions/what-you-can-do-about-global-warming.html

The role of forests in protecting climate
http://www.ucsusa.org/global_warming/solutions/recognizing-forests-role-in-climate-change.html

Clean vehicles program
http://www.ucsusa.org/clean_vehicles/

Clean energy program
http://www.ucsusa.org/clean_energy/

Fuel-efficient cars
http://www.fueleconomy.gov/

Energy-efficient products
http://www.energystar.gov/

Green-e Renewable Energy Program
http://www.green-e.org/



10. Will responding to global warming be harmful to our economy?

Reducing our impact on the global climate does not have to hurt the world's economies. The answer depends much on the "how" and "when".

The challenge is to strike a balance between responding early enough to avoid major negative (costly) impacts, and responding some time later in order to avoid taking big, expensive steps now which then may turn out to be unnecessary or inappropriate. This type of challenge is typical in business and industry; decision-making under uncertainty is the daily bread of most managers.

Clearly, global warming still involves many unknowns, but the remaining uncertainties in our scientific understanding no longer warrant a "wait and see" stance. Science tells us with increasing certainty that we are in for a serious long-term problem that will affect all of us.

And there is much we can do now that makes sense in terms of the economic bottom line while helping to reduce our impact on the global climate and on our local environment and health. The United States and other developed countries should seize the opportunity to take the lead in developing new, clean, energy-efficient technologies, and help developing countries take a greener path to economic prosperity. All of this can be done in a cost-effective manner, while creating jobs and new business opportunities.

Related links:

Clean Energy Blueprint
http://www.ucsusa.org/assets/documents/clean_energy/ACFjtMhdd.pdf

Drilling in Detroit
http://www.ucsusa.org/assets/documents/clean_vehicles/drill_detroit.pdf

Common Sense on Climate Change
http://www.ucsusa.org/assets/documents/global_warming/ClimateSolns.pdf

Economics of climate change
http://www.pewclimate.org/global-warming-in-depth/economics/



11. More questions?

If you have other questions about global warming, check out our briefings, updates, recommendations, analyses, guides, and links.

In addition, there are many web sites that answer frequently asked questions. We recommend the following:

The US Environmental Protection Agency
http://yosemite.epa.gov/oar/globalwarming.nsf/content/ClimateScienceFAQ.html

The Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center
http://cdiac.esd.ornl.gov/pns/faq.html

The United Nations Environment Programme/World Meteorological Organization:
http://www.gcrio.org/ipcc/qa/cover.html

(c) Union of Concerned Scientists


http://www.ucsusa.org/global_warming/science/global-warming-faq.html


Bill Totten http://www.ashisuto.co.jp/english/index.html

Thursday, April 05, 2007

Warmer, Warmer

by John Lanchester

London Review of Books Vol 29 No 6 (March 22 2007)


The Revenge of Gaia by James Lovelock (Allen Lane, 222 pages, GBP 8.99)

Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis Summary for Policymakers: Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change http://www.ipcc.ch/spm2feb07.pdf

Heat: How to Stop the Planet Burning by George Monbiot (Allen Lane, 277 pages, GBP 17.99)

The Party's Over: Oil, War and the Fate of Industrial Societies by Richard Heinberg (Clairview, 320 pages, GBP 12.99)

The Economics of Climate Change: The Stern Review by Nicholas Stern (Cambridge, 692 pages, GBP 29.99)


It is strange and striking that climate change activists have not committed any acts of terrorism. After all, terrorism is for the individual by far the modern world's most effective form of political action, and climate change is an issue about which people feel just as strongly as about, say, animal rights. This is especially noticeable when you bear in mind the ease of things like blowing up petrol stations, or vandalising SUVs. In cities, SUVs are loathed by everyone except the people who drive them; and in a city the size of London, a few dozen people could in a short space of time make the ownership of these cars effectively impossible, just by running keys down the side of them, at a cost to the owner of several thousand pounds a time. Say fifty people vandalising four cars each every night for a month: six thousand trashed SUVs in a month and the Chelsea tractors would soon be disappearing from our streets. So why don't these things happen? Is it because the people who feel strongly about climate change are simply too nice, too educated, to do anything of the sort? (But terrorists are often highly educated.) Or is it that even the people who feel most strongly about climate change on some level can't quite bring themselves to believe in it?

I don't think I can be the only person who finds in myself a strong degree of psychological resistance to the whole subject of climate change. I just don't want to think about it. This isn't an entirely unfamiliar sensation: someone my age is likely to have spent a couple of formative decades trying not to think too much about nuclear war, a subject which offered the same combination of individual impotence and prospective planetary catastrophe. Global warming is even harder to ignore, not so much because it is increasingly omnipresent in the media but because the evidence for it is starting to be manifest in daily life. Even a city boy like me can see evidence that the world is a little warmer than it was.

Part of the problem is one of scale. Global warming is as a subject so much more important than almost anything else that it is difficult to frame or discuss. At the moment there is a global warming-related item on the news at least once a week. Today, for instance, there are two: close to home, a judge throwing out the government's phoney 'consultation' process over nuclear power, and further away, at a conference in Washington, an 'informal agreement' marking a new commitment to 'tackling climate change' and resulting in a 'non-binding' declaration which reflected 'a real change of mood'. Just what the world needs - more hot air. And then the news moves on to other things, to contaminated Anglo-Hungarian turkeys and gang shootings and potential schisms in the Anglican Church. There is a kind of falsehood built into this; at the very least, a powerful degree of denial. If global warming is as much of a threat as we have good reason to think it is, the subject can't be covered in the same way as church fe^tes and county swimming championships. I suspect we're reluctant to think about it because we're worried that if we start we will have no choice but to think about nothing else. James Lovelock, in his powerful and extremely depressing book The Revenge of Gaia, says this:

I am old enough to notice a marked similarity between attitudes over sixty years ago towards the threat of war and those now towards the threat of global heating. Most of us think that something unpleasant may soon happen, but we are as confused as we were in 1938 over what form it will take and what to do about it. Our response so far is just like that before the Second World War, an attempt to appease. The Kyoto agreement was uncannily like that of Munich, with politicians out to show that they do respond but in reality playing for time.


I may be wrong in speaking of a general sense of psychological resistance; perhaps I'm only talking about myself. In any case, with the whole topic so charged and so difficult, it is best to begin with the agreed facts.

The climate of our planet is not stable. The whole of recorded human history has taken place within what is, from the earth's point of view, a relatively narrow band of temperature. From a glaciological perspective, we are living in an ice age, because there is ice at the poles - which has by no means always been the case. Fifty-odd million years ago, not only was there no ice at the North Pole, the temperature there was 23 degrees Celsius. Ten thousand years ago, at the end of the last cool snap of this current ice age - known as a 'glacial', to distinguish it from the warmer 'interglacial' of the type we are living through now - much of Northern Europe was buried beneath miles of ice. Sea levels were hundreds of feet lower than they are today, and there was a thousand-mile-wide land bridge between Russia and North America. According to some palaeo-climatologists, 700 million years ago, during a period known as the Varangian (for some reason geological ages are named after characters in Dungeons and Dragons), almost the whole planet iced over, well-nigh irrecoverably. Earth was prevented from becoming a permanently lifeless ball of ice only through processes which are not fully understood. This is known, with appropriate chillingness, as the 'snowball earth event'.

Most of the variation in the earth's climatic cycles comes from small irregularities in its orbit. These irregularities are magnified by the immensely complicated systems of the earth's climate. A crucial one of these is the greenhouse effect, without which there would be no life on our planet, since it is the greenhouse effect which prevents the sun's infra-red radiation from simply bouncing back out into space. The existence of the effect was first posited in 1859 by the Irish scientist John Tyndall, who said that without the greenhouse effect 'the warmth of our fields and gardens would pour itself unrequited into space, and the sun would rise upon an island held fast in the iron grip of frost'. The Swedish chemist Svante Arrhenius added to Tyndall's work in the early 20th century by pointing out that human activity was adding to the level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Because carbon dioxide, along with other gases such as water vapour and methane, prevents radiation from escaping, it is a 'greenhouse gas', and therefore increased levels of carbon dioxide make the earth warmer - not that Arrhenius was especially worried about that, since he thought that the rate of increase would be low. The basic science of this was not in dispute, but the area was also not one of much scientific interest except to one or two mavericks.

One of them was a young American physicist called James Hansen, whose 1967 PhD thesis studied Venus and came to the conclusion that it was the greenhouse effect which made the planet so warm - 400 degrees Celsius on the surface, hot enough to melt lead. A probe later the same year showed that the atmosphere of Venus was in fact 96 per cent carbon dioxide, and Hansen became fascinated by the greenhouse effect on earth. At the prompting of a geochemist and oceanographer called Charles David Keeling, the observatory of Mauna Loa on Hawaii had been collecting data on the level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere since 1959. The result - the 'Keeling curve' - clearly showed that levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide were rising sharply. In 1979, Jimmy Carter asked the National Academy of Sciences to look into the question. The Ad Hoc Study Group of Carbon Dioxide and Climate did that, and reported that they had 'no reason to doubt that climate change will result and no reason to believe that these changes will be negligible'. Dating more or less from that report, a huge amount of work has been done on the science of the subject, and especially on the detailed, sophisticated and controversial computer models on which predictions about the future are based. (One of the world's leading centres for this research is our very own Hadley Centre, based near Bristol and run by the Met Office.)

It was 1988 before the issue of carbon dioxide and the climate was again raised to public attention. James Hansen testified before a Congressional hearing that he was '99 per cent' certain 'global warming is affecting our planet now'. The attention brought by the hearings prompted the UN and the World Meteorological Organisation to found the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, with a brief to study and report on the question of greenhouse gases and their effect on the climate. The IPCC's first report, in 1990, said that there was evidence of global warming to the tune of about 0.5 degrees Celsius in the past century, that the cause of the warming to date could be as much natural as human, but that action was needed to prevent the build-up of greenhouse gases in the future. From that point on, the panel's degree of confidence about the causes of global warming grew steadily. Its next report was in 1995, when it concluded that 'the balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climate'. By 2001 it had decided that it was 'likely' that human activity had caused the greater part of the century's warming: 'likely' means that it put the probability at between 66 and 90 per cent. Last month, the panel reported for the fourth time. (Or rather, it published its Summary for Policymakers - the full report, with all the scientific details and appendices, will come out over the next few months.) The new report says that the observed global warming over the last fifty years was 'very likely' to be the result of human activity, a statement which means that they are between 90 and 95 per cent certain. {1} This means that from the scientific point of view there is no longer a debate about human-caused global warming and the only question left open is what exactly to do about it.

Laid out like this, it all seems pretty clear-cut: a story of speculation and research leading to a gradually increasing degree of certainty. But in practice the question of climate change has never been other than bitterly contested, to an extent that reflects structural flaws in three areas: the political context of science; the reporting of science in the media; and the more general relationship between science and the public. It can be argued that the question of how we got here doesn't matter, especially not when compared to the overarchingly urgent question of what to do next; but I'm not sure that's right. A maxim in the theory of problem-solving says: if you can't break it, it isn't fixed. In other words, if you don't know how something came to not-work, you can't be sure that you have reliably made it work. Since a systematic approach to climate change would involve a new relationship between scientific predictions and public policy, it seems a good idea to try and think clearly about how we got to this point.

The simplest issue has been to do with the politicisation of science. The story is clearest in the US, which leads the world in polluting the planet, and in studying the climate, and has set the pattern for the global debate on the issue. Unfortunately, the climate debate came along at a time when the Republican Party was wilfully embracing anti-scientific irrationalism. One way of telling this story - adopted by Kim Stanley Robinson in his novel Forty Signs of Rain {2} - begins with the Scientists for Johnson Campaign, run by a group of eminent scientists who were worried about Barry Goldwater's apparent eagerness to wage nuclear war. Their campaign had a considerable impact, and when Richard Nixon got to the White House four years later he was convinced that scientists were a dangerously anti-Republican political lobby. Nixon shut down the Office of Science and Technology, and kicked the presidential science adviser out of the cabinet - an effective and still unreversed removal of science from the policy-making arena in the US. Still, the Republicans did not really go to the dark side over science until the second Bush presidency. The first Bush was willing to sign the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, a document which was unanimously approved by the Senate, but his son has appeared reluctant to discuss the subject and even more reluctant to act - this being one of the most important ways his administration has acted as a wholly owned subsidiary of the oil industry. James Hansen and other scientists have reported attempts by the administration to prevent them from voicing their views; and the administration has consistently tried to weaken and tone down the language of its own agencies' reports on the subject. What makes this so bizarre are Bush's private views on energy and oil, as reflected in the various ecologically friendly decisions he has made at his own ranch in Crawford (it uses geothermal heat pumps, and has a 25,000 gallon underground cistern to collect rainwater), and in this passage from his speechwriter David Frum's book The Right Man {3}:

I once made the mistake of suggesting to Bush that he use the phrase cheap energy to describe the aims of his energy policy. He gave me a sharp, squinting look, as if he were trying to decide whether I was the stupidest person he'd heard from all day or only one of the top five. Cheap energy, he answered, was how we had got into this mess. Every year from the early 1970s to the mid 1990s, American cars burned less and less oil per mile travelled. Then in about 1995 that progress stopped. Why? He answered his own question: because of the gas-guzzling SUV. And what had made the SUV possible? This time I answered. 'Um, cheap energy?' He nodded at me. Dismissed.


More or less the only conclusion one can draw from that under-reported passage is that W is well aware of the realities but has been knowingly acting as a stooge for the oil industry. He is not alone. It is shocking to learn from George Monbiot's book Heat just how systematic the oil lobby has been about spreading a smokescreen of doubt around the question of climate change. The techniques in play were learned by the tobacco lobby in the course of the fights over smoking and health. 'Doubt is our product since it is the best means of competing with the "body of fact" that exists in the minds of the general public', an internal memo from one tobacco company states. 'It is also the best means of establishing a controversy'. Or, as the Republican pollster Frank Luntz put it in a memo to party activists during W's first midterms, 'Should the public come to believe that the scientific issues are settled, their views about global warming will change accordingly. Therefore, you need to continue to make the lack of scientific certainty a primary issue in the debate.' Oil money and tobacco money have gone to bodies such as the Competitive Enterprise Institute, the Cato Institute, the Heritage Foundation, the Hudson Institute, the Frontiers of Freedom Institute, the Reason Foundation and the Independent Institute. Exxon, in particular, is a great one for sponsoring climate-denying websites and lobby groups.

This policy has been remarkably effective. While the peer-reviewed science on global warming is overwhelming - a 2004 survey in Science showed that of the 928 peer-reviewed papers on the subject, 'none of the papers disagreed with the consensus position' - the balance in the media has been split almost 50-50 between the scientific evidence on the one hand and 'sceptics' on the other. On Monbiot's account, the BBC has recently woken up to the way in which it was 'fooled by these people', which is good news if it is true; but the corporation has hitherto been weak-minded about its reporting of climate change. The ideology of balance has led it to include the 'other side' of a debate which has, among scientists, only one side; a recent highlight was an appearance by Nigel Lawson on Newsnight, arguing, or 'arguing', as follows: 'the whole science is extremely uncertain - that is well known to anybody who has studied it'.

The problem with 'balance' is partly a problem with the way science is reported. 'Balance' works, sort of, as a way of discussing politics in a two-party system. (Though it has to be said that the remorseless polarisation, whereby I say yah because you said boo, is one main reason for the decreased interest in party politics.) Since the climate debate has been polarised on left-right lines in the US, it has seemed appropriate to the media to treat it as a polarised issue, one on which there are two schools of thought, which, in respect of the science, it isn't: there is one school of thought, and a few nutters. (Parenthetically, it's not too hard to imagine a world in which the conservative parties were more in favour of conservation, and environmentalism in general was a cause of the right. David Cameron is clearly trying to remake this connection in the UK, in the belief that this is the main issue where he can clearly and definitively distinguish himself from New Labour. The option isn't available to the Republicans, since they abandoned science in favour of the Christianist right and the environment in favour of Big Oil, which may be one reason why, notwithstanding the shift in the evidence, a poll of Congressional Republicans found that only thirteen per cent of them thought it 'proven beyond a reasonable doubt that the earth is warming because of man-made problems'.) The way the issue is reported reflects the fact that there are people who want to believe in global warming, and wanted to do so right from the start, before the evidence had accumulated to the point where it was no longer an issue of belief. Sim