Bill Totten's Weblog

Wednesday, October 20, 2010

Worldwide Hyperinflation Race

by FSK (October 11 2010)

In the USA and Europe, there is massive inflation to bail out the banksters. Aiming for stable exchange rates, other countries are also inflating their money.

Politicians in other countries value their exports to the USA. As dollar inflation occurs, prices of non-US goods rise relative to US-produced goods. To keep exports at the same level, the other country must also inflate.

Consider a factory owner in China. The factory exports to the USA, receiving dollars. The factory owner trades his dollars with China's government for newly-printed yuan. China's government merely holds the dollars, rather than buying tangible goods. The net effect is that the USA exports inflation to China. In effect, China's politicians are subsidizing the banksters in the USA.

Why are foreign bureaucrats so eager to export to the USA, in exchange for a piece of paper? That can't continue forever.

Foreign politicians are eager to manipulate exchange rates. When politicians do this, currency speculators say "Woohoo! Free money!" It's like the government is writing currency speculators a check, when politicians try to manipulate currency exchange rates.

How does inflation subsidize the banksters? Suppose the bank owns a $1 million mortgage on a house currently worth $400,000. That's a $600,000 loss. If there's 100% inflation, then it's a $1 million mortgage on a house currently worth $800,000, for a loss of only $200,000. If there's 200% inflation, then the bank can sell the foreclosed house with money left over. In this manner, inflation helps bail out insolvent banks. The loans can be repaid with devalued money; the assets backing the loan is worth more.

The foreclosure process takes a year or two. Over time, inflation helps bail out the banksters. The bank is borrowing at the Fed Funds Rate of 0.25%, while inflation helps underwater loans become more solvent.

Banks don't care about the actual inflation rate. They borrow at the Fed Funds Rate and make loans, profiting from leverage and the interest rate spread and the yield curve. Right now, the banksters are borrowing at the Fed Funds Rate and buying Treasury debt. That's the reason the banks are make huge profits while the rest of the country is stuck in a recession/depression.

The current situation is pretty ridiculous. The USA is inflating to bail out the banksters. Other countries are inflating to keep stable exchange rates with the US dollar. It's a worldwide hyperinflation race.

Bill Totten


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