Oil Addiction: The World in Peril - 28
by Pierre Chomat (Universal Publishers, 2004)
translated from the French by Pamela Gilbert-Snyder
Part IV. Our Suicidal Quest for Energy
Chapter 28. The Global Black Gold Reserves
Asking the question, "How much fossil energy is left in the world?" is tantamount to asking, "How much longer will the 'Empire of the Oil Addicts' be able to sustain its luxurious lifestyle and all its modern conveniences?" Without easy access to energy, it is clear what will happen to the Empire's egosystems. And when the egosystems are forced to slow down, what will become of the societies that so utterly depend on them?
What, in fact, is the life expectancy of the oil fields that house the world's remaining ergamines? Let us go first to the heart of the Empire: The United States. While having only four percent of the world's population, America accounts for more than 25% of the fossil fuels consumed on the planet. It has already depleted 85% of the easily accessible hydrocarbon resources on its own territory. At current production rates, its remaining resources will last only a few more years: ten, theoretically, for oil and gas. However, production rates have been decreasing for some time and will continue to do so.
The United States, like Japan and Western Europe, already depends on foreign sources to supply the greater part of its needs for oil, the most widely used ergamine. In 2003, the twelve million barrels a day that the United States imported met seventy percent of its requirements. As the output of American oil fields declines and consumption continues to rise, the proportion of US demand that must be met by imports will increase rapidly. It may exceed
eighty percent before 2020, assuming that the international market can supply it.
This reality would explain the extreme anxiety of the US corpocrat government, whose policies heavily favor those corporations whose practices and products are geared toward high energy consumption. Europe, already accustomed to importing almost all of its fuel, is more sanguine but still concerned. Great Britain is experiencing the tremors of withdrawal a little more strongly than the rest because, although it discovered an El Dorado of liquid gold in the North Sea in the 1970s, it now sees its glorious days of energy autonomy coming to an end. It must now begin dispatching endless convoys of oil tankers to the Middle East, as its European neighbors have been doing for some time.
Of course, it would be much simpler if the Persian Gulf still belonged, de facto, to Great Britain. If only the Americans had anticipated the future better in 1944! They would have left the British in control there, where they were so well established and doing such good work! In 2003 they had to go to all the trouble of demonizing Saddam Hussein in order to re-gain a foothold in Iraq.
The oil resources of the United States and Great Britain are being exhausted, but what about the rest of the Earth's oil fields? They, too, seem to be running out. If every country in the world capped its oil consumption at the current rate, and if all the world's oil fields produced at their maximum capacity until fully depleted, the Earth's inhabitants could continue their current oil-addicted lifestyle for fifty years more. But neither of these conditions will be met. The fifty years remaining of our energy-cushioned paradise are a fanciful illusion, like most paradises.
Here is why.
First, the US corpocrat government has no intention of curbing its citizens' growing appetite for hydrocarbons. European governments seem to be following the course mapped out by the Kyoto and Johannesburg Summits, but they will have a hard time staying on track. Rapidly developing Asian countries such as China and India now have strong connections with the Western multinationals, which are employing their largely underpaid proletariats. As a result, the Asian region's energy consumption, which now exceeds that of the United States, is growing by three percent a year. This is enormous, and it is unlikely that Asia will agree to curb its appetite just when the egosystems of the West are finally offering it such fabulous opportunities to develop industrial egosystems of its own.
Given current conditions worldwide, it is hard to imagine a scenario in which oil consumption will decrease or even level off. Only a significant price increase would rein in our flagrant wastefulness. But a considerable increase in the price of a barrel of oil would be a gross divergence from the corpocratic plan.
Second, it is impossible for any oil field to continue producing at its maximum output until depletion. Production generally declines as the pressure of the oil field drops. The global oil reserves obey the same law of physics as a single oil field: they will reach peak production, after which output will diminish.
The studies quoted in the March 2000 {43} report of the World Resources Institute paint a bleak picture for the world's major energy consumers. In this very well-researched report, James J MacKensie estimates the "ultimately recoverable global amount" of ergamines, which includes both the oil that has already been consumed and the oil that remains to be extracted by the techniques used today. In his two most optimistic scenarios, maximum world oil production could begin to decline between 2013, if the ultimately recoverable global amount turns out to be 2,200 billion barrels, and 2019, if the amount reaches the implausibly high estimate of 2,600 billion barrels. As the author notes, even a seventeen percent increase in recoverable resources, that is, from 2,200 to 2,600 billion barrels, would buy us only six more years (from 2013 to 2019). Our insatiable appetite for energy has assumed such proportions that the discovery of new reserves will have almost no impact on the date of peak production. It is also worth noting that the ultimately recoverable global amount at the end of 2001 was only 1,900 billion barrels, {44} and that the highly effective prospecting methods used in recent years could not have missed many major reserves, making new discoveries, unfortunately, very unlikely. For example, drilling in the Alaskan National Wildlife Refuge and off the coasts of Florida and California would push back the date of global peak production by only three to four months. These reserves do not give us any strategic advantage; they are just sources of more handsome short-lived profits for the corpocrat-backed corporations.
No matter when the date of peak production arrives, once it does, oil will begin to grow scarce on this planet for the first time in history. Yet, incredibly, Americans are still devising policies to encourage egosystems to consume as much fuel as possible; in another decade, perhaps even less, these same egosystems will be forced to curb their appetites. It is clear that corpocratic doctrine is being applied to the letter. Like Louis XV, their attitude seems to be, "After me, the deluge!" The World Resources Institute report does not cover coal and natural gas, whose reserves are also being rapidly exhausted. But increased use of these two energy sources would have only a minor impact on the timing of the global oil production peak. And the natural gas output will begin to decline soon after oil production.
No one knows yet whether the world will make a concerted effort to conserve energy. Given the example of the United States, it might be difficult. However, even before the production peak is reached, oil prices will begin to rise. This will be the first-ever serious challenge to the habits of the oil addicts. Higher oil prices will give the oil companies the needed funds to invest in more elaborate and more expensive extraction methods, thus allowing them to prospect for ergamines where it was not profitable before. Soon, they will have to coax the more recalcitrant ergamines out of the ground to avoid a catastrophic drop in our supplies. The extraction techniques used today miss forty to sixty percent of the petroleum that originally existed in the underground reserves. {45} As a result, the United States still has considerable amounts of petroleum trapped underground on its own territory. But the price of crude oil will have to rise significantly in order to enable drilling companies to convert to mining operations; they will then be able to mine the oil-bearing rocks and crush them to extract their oil, a practice that has been successfully applied in Canada with bituminous shale. In fact, petroleum was extracted in mine workings as early as 1740 in Pechelbronn, France, after the ingenious Antoine Lebel, one of the industrial era's first oilmen, obtained the "exclusive royal privilege" from Louis XV. {46}
But oil companies will never find enough fossil fuel to maintain production at the levels to which we are accustomed now. Once peak output is reached, the global rate of production will decline as inevitably as the sun dips below the horizon each night.
How will the countries of the Northern hemisphere, those supposed bastions of freedom and democracy, react? Will they take over the entire Middle East for their sole benefit? Will they begin fighting among themselves, like dogs over a bone, to grab what is left? Will they pursue their policy of ecological disaster to the bitter end? Will they persist in promoting their excessive development policies to the point of industrial implosion? Our species has engaged in enough folly during its history to give us serious pause as we attempt to answer these questions.
Notes
{43} James J MacKensie, "Oil as a Finite Resource: When is global production likely to peak?" World Resources Institute, March 2000. Electronic document accessed at http://www.wri.org/climate/jm_oil_000.html October 2002.
{44} International Petroleum Encyclopedia, (Tulsa, Oklahoma: PennWell Publishing, 2002): 216-217. Values derived from the figures for the oil reserves presented in Tables "Worldwide Oil Reserves and Production".
{45} Alain Perrodon, Lepe'trvle a travers les ages (Paris, France: Editions Boubee, 1989), 23.
{46} Ibid, 34.
Bill Totten http://www.ashisuto.co.jp/english/
translated from the French by Pamela Gilbert-Snyder
Part IV. Our Suicidal Quest for Energy
Chapter 28. The Global Black Gold Reserves
Asking the question, "How much fossil energy is left in the world?" is tantamount to asking, "How much longer will the 'Empire of the Oil Addicts' be able to sustain its luxurious lifestyle and all its modern conveniences?" Without easy access to energy, it is clear what will happen to the Empire's egosystems. And when the egosystems are forced to slow down, what will become of the societies that so utterly depend on them?
What, in fact, is the life expectancy of the oil fields that house the world's remaining ergamines? Let us go first to the heart of the Empire: The United States. While having only four percent of the world's population, America accounts for more than 25% of the fossil fuels consumed on the planet. It has already depleted 85% of the easily accessible hydrocarbon resources on its own territory. At current production rates, its remaining resources will last only a few more years: ten, theoretically, for oil and gas. However, production rates have been decreasing for some time and will continue to do so.
The United States, like Japan and Western Europe, already depends on foreign sources to supply the greater part of its needs for oil, the most widely used ergamine. In 2003, the twelve million barrels a day that the United States imported met seventy percent of its requirements. As the output of American oil fields declines and consumption continues to rise, the proportion of US demand that must be met by imports will increase rapidly. It may exceed
eighty percent before 2020, assuming that the international market can supply it.
This reality would explain the extreme anxiety of the US corpocrat government, whose policies heavily favor those corporations whose practices and products are geared toward high energy consumption. Europe, already accustomed to importing almost all of its fuel, is more sanguine but still concerned. Great Britain is experiencing the tremors of withdrawal a little more strongly than the rest because, although it discovered an El Dorado of liquid gold in the North Sea in the 1970s, it now sees its glorious days of energy autonomy coming to an end. It must now begin dispatching endless convoys of oil tankers to the Middle East, as its European neighbors have been doing for some time.
Of course, it would be much simpler if the Persian Gulf still belonged, de facto, to Great Britain. If only the Americans had anticipated the future better in 1944! They would have left the British in control there, where they were so well established and doing such good work! In 2003 they had to go to all the trouble of demonizing Saddam Hussein in order to re-gain a foothold in Iraq.
The oil resources of the United States and Great Britain are being exhausted, but what about the rest of the Earth's oil fields? They, too, seem to be running out. If every country in the world capped its oil consumption at the current rate, and if all the world's oil fields produced at their maximum capacity until fully depleted, the Earth's inhabitants could continue their current oil-addicted lifestyle for fifty years more. But neither of these conditions will be met. The fifty years remaining of our energy-cushioned paradise are a fanciful illusion, like most paradises.
Here is why.
First, the US corpocrat government has no intention of curbing its citizens' growing appetite for hydrocarbons. European governments seem to be following the course mapped out by the Kyoto and Johannesburg Summits, but they will have a hard time staying on track. Rapidly developing Asian countries such as China and India now have strong connections with the Western multinationals, which are employing their largely underpaid proletariats. As a result, the Asian region's energy consumption, which now exceeds that of the United States, is growing by three percent a year. This is enormous, and it is unlikely that Asia will agree to curb its appetite just when the egosystems of the West are finally offering it such fabulous opportunities to develop industrial egosystems of its own.
Given current conditions worldwide, it is hard to imagine a scenario in which oil consumption will decrease or even level off. Only a significant price increase would rein in our flagrant wastefulness. But a considerable increase in the price of a barrel of oil would be a gross divergence from the corpocratic plan.
Second, it is impossible for any oil field to continue producing at its maximum output until depletion. Production generally declines as the pressure of the oil field drops. The global oil reserves obey the same law of physics as a single oil field: they will reach peak production, after which output will diminish.
The studies quoted in the March 2000 {43} report of the World Resources Institute paint a bleak picture for the world's major energy consumers. In this very well-researched report, James J MacKensie estimates the "ultimately recoverable global amount" of ergamines, which includes both the oil that has already been consumed and the oil that remains to be extracted by the techniques used today. In his two most optimistic scenarios, maximum world oil production could begin to decline between 2013, if the ultimately recoverable global amount turns out to be 2,200 billion barrels, and 2019, if the amount reaches the implausibly high estimate of 2,600 billion barrels. As the author notes, even a seventeen percent increase in recoverable resources, that is, from 2,200 to 2,600 billion barrels, would buy us only six more years (from 2013 to 2019). Our insatiable appetite for energy has assumed such proportions that the discovery of new reserves will have almost no impact on the date of peak production. It is also worth noting that the ultimately recoverable global amount at the end of 2001 was only 1,900 billion barrels, {44} and that the highly effective prospecting methods used in recent years could not have missed many major reserves, making new discoveries, unfortunately, very unlikely. For example, drilling in the Alaskan National Wildlife Refuge and off the coasts of Florida and California would push back the date of global peak production by only three to four months. These reserves do not give us any strategic advantage; they are just sources of more handsome short-lived profits for the corpocrat-backed corporations.
No matter when the date of peak production arrives, once it does, oil will begin to grow scarce on this planet for the first time in history. Yet, incredibly, Americans are still devising policies to encourage egosystems to consume as much fuel as possible; in another decade, perhaps even less, these same egosystems will be forced to curb their appetites. It is clear that corpocratic doctrine is being applied to the letter. Like Louis XV, their attitude seems to be, "After me, the deluge!" The World Resources Institute report does not cover coal and natural gas, whose reserves are also being rapidly exhausted. But increased use of these two energy sources would have only a minor impact on the timing of the global oil production peak. And the natural gas output will begin to decline soon after oil production.
No one knows yet whether the world will make a concerted effort to conserve energy. Given the example of the United States, it might be difficult. However, even before the production peak is reached, oil prices will begin to rise. This will be the first-ever serious challenge to the habits of the oil addicts. Higher oil prices will give the oil companies the needed funds to invest in more elaborate and more expensive extraction methods, thus allowing them to prospect for ergamines where it was not profitable before. Soon, they will have to coax the more recalcitrant ergamines out of the ground to avoid a catastrophic drop in our supplies. The extraction techniques used today miss forty to sixty percent of the petroleum that originally existed in the underground reserves. {45} As a result, the United States still has considerable amounts of petroleum trapped underground on its own territory. But the price of crude oil will have to rise significantly in order to enable drilling companies to convert to mining operations; they will then be able to mine the oil-bearing rocks and crush them to extract their oil, a practice that has been successfully applied in Canada with bituminous shale. In fact, petroleum was extracted in mine workings as early as 1740 in Pechelbronn, France, after the ingenious Antoine Lebel, one of the industrial era's first oilmen, obtained the "exclusive royal privilege" from Louis XV. {46}
But oil companies will never find enough fossil fuel to maintain production at the levels to which we are accustomed now. Once peak output is reached, the global rate of production will decline as inevitably as the sun dips below the horizon each night.
How will the countries of the Northern hemisphere, those supposed bastions of freedom and democracy, react? Will they take over the entire Middle East for their sole benefit? Will they begin fighting among themselves, like dogs over a bone, to grab what is left? Will they pursue their policy of ecological disaster to the bitter end? Will they persist in promoting their excessive development policies to the point of industrial implosion? Our species has engaged in enough folly during its history to give us serious pause as we attempt to answer these questions.
Notes
{43} James J MacKensie, "Oil as a Finite Resource: When is global production likely to peak?" World Resources Institute, March 2000. Electronic document accessed at http://www.wri.org/climate/jm_oil_000.html October 2002.
{44} International Petroleum Encyclopedia, (Tulsa, Oklahoma: PennWell Publishing, 2002): 216-217. Values derived from the figures for the oil reserves presented in Tables "Worldwide Oil Reserves and Production".
{45} Alain Perrodon, Lepe'trvle a travers les ages (Paris, France: Editions Boubee, 1989), 23.
{46} Ibid, 34.
Bill Totten http://www.ashisuto.co.jp/english/
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