Bill Totten's Weblog

Thursday, February 17, 2011

The Coming Misery ...

... That Big Oil Discusses Behind Closed Doors

by Steve LeVine

http://oilandglory.foreignpolicy.com/ (February 14 2011)

http://www.countercurrents.org/ (February 15 2011)

 

When big-thinkers at companies with the most skin in the energy game are behind closed doors and they discuss how the world really looks going forward, do they say that there are bumps in the road but that things will be fine, just fine, as they suggest publicly? Three years ago, we got a glimpse into the room when Royal Dutch/Shell issued a scenario forecasting the world in 2020. Based on current economic and energy-use patterns around the world, Shell said that energy supplies will be so tight that they will tip the world into a full-blown crisis in which governments will force their populations to reduce driving, use less electricity, and pay an extremely steep increase for what they do consume. There will be a massive, decade-long economic slowdown, and geopolitical power will shift dramatically to energy-producing nations, the company said.

Today, Shell returned with an update {1}. The company said that the 2008 financial crisis interrupted the slide it predicted, but that the clock has begun ticking again. If the world does not change how it uses energy, its scenario will hold true.

In recent weeks, we've heard almost identical energy-consumption projections from ExxonMobil {2}, BP {3} and now Shell: The world will use about forty percent more energy by 2030. The difference is that Exxon and BP more or less just toss out the numbers, while Shell suggests that one might consider running for the hills, oh, sometime around 2016 or 2017 before everyone else shows up. You all can plan to return home around 2030, Shell has said, when the world has come to its senses and adopted all the efficiency and price-signal mechanisms that some forward-thinkers are suggesting now.

There is some optimism in the report, such as descriptions of actions by nations like Japan and Norway and companies like Wal-Mart to lower greenhouse gas emissions. But the United States, for example, has not reversed energy-use practices that helped lead to the Shell scenario, the company says.

I myself tend to believe that, although it looks otherwise at the moment, nations will not put themselves in the collective position of unhappiness described by Shell. For example, there will be an even greater than projected shift to plentiful natural gas, thus tempering Shell's projections. Yet, it's worth reading on to the jump for more about the reports. Meanwhile, for the visual-minded, here is Shell's glossy video presentation {4}.

Shell's 2008 and 2011 reports actually contain two scenarios. The one described above, called "Scramble", is what it projects will happen if the world continues on its current course. A more optimistic version, called "Blueprints", includes a squeeze but far less despair because the world acts to reduce energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions.

Shell's latest, 78-page report confirms its previous finding that in just four years, our usual sources of fuel are not going to meet growing global demand, so that there is going to be much switching to dirty coal, plus more use of agricultural-based biofuels.

Specifically, Shell foresees total energy demand - including fuel for transportation, manufacturing, electricity, heat, and so on - rising to the equivalent of about 317 million barrels of oil a day, about 22 percent higher than the approximately 259 million barrels a day consumed last year. In 2030, the number rises another twelve percent, to 358 million barrels a day, in Shell's scenario.

As the earlier report described what happens next, that's not going to be enough energy either, so:
governments react with draconian measures - such as steep and sudden domestic price rises or severe restrictions on personal mobility with accompanying disruptions in value chains and significant economic dislocations. By 2020, the repetition of this volatile three-step pattern in many areas of the energy economy results in a temporary global economic slowdown ... Although change must and does occur, the turnaround takes a decade because large-scale transformations of the energy system are required.
The 2008 report was also interesting in describing the geopolitical result - that "major resource holders are increasingly the rule makers rather than the rule takers. They use their growing prominence in the world to influence international policies, particularly when it comes to matters they insist are internal such as human rights and democratic governance." In other words, no Egypts or Tunisias in the scarce-energy age. No one will object, Shell said, because they will need sweetheart deals with the energy-producing countries in order to obtain what they can and "do not want to rock the energy boat they have just managed to board".

The new report suggests that all is not lost - there are signs, if slow ones, of attention to climate change. Whatever the case, Shell sticks with its prediction that eventually - after about a decade of misery - people come around and decide to act:
High domestic prices and exceptionally demanding standards imposed by governments provoke significant advances in energy efficiency. Eventually, locally developed alternative supplies - biofuels, wind, and thermal solar - also contribute on a much greater scale than before. By 2030, healthy economic growth is restored, with particular vibrancy in the new energy sector that has received a massive stimulus to innovation through this difficult period.
Links:

{1} http://www-static.shell.com/static/aboutshell/downloads/aboutshell/signals_signposts.pdf

{2} http://www.exxonmobil.com/corporate/files/corporate/energy_outlook_slides.pdf

{3} http://www.bp.com/liveassets/bp_internet/globalbp/globalbp_uk_english/reports_and_publications/statistical_energy_review_2008/STAGING/local_assets/2010_downloads/2030_energy_outlook_booklet.pdf

{4} http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=Yc5t5xro7RA


http://www.countercurrents.org/levine150211.htm

Bill Totten http://www.ashisuto.co.jp/english/

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  • 1
    Ho tantissimo da scrivere su sto Renato Vallanzasca misto ad Ugo Fantozzi della finanza piu' filo mafiosa, piu' ricicla soldi mafiosi, piu' Berlusco-nazista e Pada-nazista, che e' il verminoso avanzo di galera, gia' 3 volte finito in carcere: Paolo Barrai. Nato a Milano il 28.06.1065. Lo faro' gradualmente. Uno dei tantissimi da lui truffato. Mi ha azzerato tutti i risparmi, come accaduto a moltissimi altri come me. Gianni Panni di Modena.
    ---
    Condannato da Consob a pagare ben 70.000 euro di multa per mega truffa fatta da sto verminoso, vi assicuro, pure pederasta stupra bambini, di Paolo Barrai. Sul fotovoltaico. Che solo a me, ha portato via 1.400.000 euro, quasi tutto quello che avevo.
    http://www.consob.it/main/documenti/hide/afflittivi/pec/mercati/2013/d18579.htm
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    Condannato al carcere in Brasile, otto anni di galera sentenziatissimi. Per pedofilia, furto, truffa, minacce di morte, stalking via internet, riciclaggio di soldi mafiosi, propaganda razzista, propaganda nazifascista. Ecco i links di inizio indagine. Ora vi e' la sentenza. E' scappato da Porto Seguro di notte, in pieno carnevale 2011, per fuggire a processo e galera. Fate voi di che schifoso topo di fogna parliamo quando parliamo di sto colerico ratto criminalissimo che da sempre e' Paolo Barrai.
    http://www.portonewsnet.com.br/?mw=noticias&w=2996
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    http://www.rotadosertao.com/noticia/10516-porto-seguro-policia-investiga-blogueiro-italiano-suspeito-de-estelionato
    http://portoseguroagora.blogspot.be/2011/03/porto-seguro-o-blogueiro-italiano-sera.html
    http://noticiasdeportoseguro.blogspot.be/2011/03/quem-e-pietro-paolo-barrai.html
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    Condannato al carcere a Milano ad inizio anni 2000. "Il funzionario di Citibank in grossi guai" come da finale del seguente articolo era lui.
    http://archiviostorico.corriere.it/2001/febbraio/02/Arrestato_imprenditore_delle_truffe_fiscali_co_7_0102023408.shtml
    Cacciato a sberle, poi, da Citibank, e fatto condannare al carcere dalla stessa Citibank.
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    In possesso della tessera di ... tenetevi forte, pls, and stra pls "ORGOGLIO PEDOFILO".
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    STO SCHIFOSO DEPRAVATO ... LO DEVO DIRE... IN QUANTO VERO... SODOMIZZA BAMBINI, SODOMIZZA ZINGARELLI DI 10-12 ANNI, CHE E' STO ACCLARATISSIMO PEDERASTA DI PAOLO BARRAI, RAGLIA SPESSISSIMO IN PRIVATO: "NEL LATIN AMERICA CHE TANTO AMO, E' FACILE FARE SESSO CON RAGAZZINI DI 10-14 ANNI... TANTE BAMBINE DI 12-14 ANNI RIMANGONO IN CINTA.. QUINDI, IO SCOPO I BAMBINI, BEVO IL LORO PRIMO SPERMA... SON PEDOFILO E ME NE VANTO". HO SENTITO QUESTI SUOI DISCORSI DA VOMITO ANCHE IO, QUANDO VENNE A TROVARCI A MODENA.
    (http://ilpunto-borsainvestimenti.blogspot.be/2013/03/lunedi-11-marzo-cena-modena-per-parlare.html)

    By Blogger FEDERICO TRABUCCO. KAIROS MILAN., at 6:57 PM, November 03, 2015  

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    Fece comprare il Bitcoins a 700 dollari, dicendo che in un baleno sarebbe andato a 70.000, ed ora vale 200 dollari circa.
    ( http://ilpunto-borsainvestimenti.blogspot.be/2014/03/bitcoin-con-giacomo-zucco-stiamo-ridendo.html)
    Fece comprare Ftse Mib ragliando che sarebbe andanto subito a 40.000, ma lo stesso perse il 30% in un baleno.
    ( http://ilpunto-borsainvestimenti.blogspot.be/2015/07/la-borsa-italiana-e-sui-massimi.html )
    Fece comprare il Gas Naturale a $ e lo stesso precipito' un mese dopo a 0.90$ ( perdita secca del 80%.. da infarto... fate voi, pls)
    http://www.nasdaq.com/markets/natural-gas.aspx?timeframe=10y
    Fece vendere il Dow Jones, ragliando che sarebbe crollato a 15.000 ed in un mese lo stesso volo' su a a 18.000.
    ( http://ilpunto-borsainvestimenti.blogspot.be/2014/10/dow-jones-atteso-in-area-15000.html)
    Fece vendere o non sottoscrivere i Btp e da quel momento son divenuti oro misto a platino.
    http://archiviostorico.corriere.it/2011/novembre/28/Barrai_dico_dieci_motivi_per_co_8_111128030.shtml
    Fece comprare a Mafia, Camorra e Ndrangheta ( suoi veri e soli clienti.. che se ne fregano delle performances, volendo solo lavara capitali assassini) case in Brasile, nel Marzo 2011, e da allora il Real Brasiliano ha perso "solo" il 60% per cento.
    http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=BRL&to=EUR
    http://www.forexinfo.it/Real-brasiliano-rischia-il-tracollo-tra-crisi-economica-e-politica
    Fece comprare l'oro a 1800 dollari, nell'Estate 2011, ed a seguire, lo stesso, e' "solo" precipitato fino a 1160 dollari.
    Fece comprare il petrolio a 105 dollari e passa, nella primavera 2014, e lo stesso, e' caduto in un baratro: giu fino a 43 dollari attuali!
    Raglio' di "de dollarizzazione", a fine 2011, mentre l'euro valeva 1,40 contro un dollaro, e lo stesso dollaro ha poi guadagnato un 30% e passa contro l'euro.
    Ma vi rendete conto di quanto vi sputtanerete in tutto il mondo e per sempre, ad accostarvi a... parole sue.. sto "bevitore di primo sperma di bambini dodicenni", quale il gia' tante volte in galera, verminoso pedofilomosessuale Paolo Barrai di criminalissima Wmo sa Panama e criminalissima Bsi Italia srl di via Socrate 26 a Milano? Scritto per mero vostro bene. Questo e' solo un antipastino su chi e' davvero sto mega truffatore e mega avanzo di galera di Paolo Barrai. Fra poco mi stra scatenero' giorno e notte. A fra non molto. giannipanni@gmx.com.

    By Blogger FEDERICO TRABUCCO. KAIROS MILAN., at 6:58 PM, November 03, 2015  

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